wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Its so Good it's not even included in the wpc discussions. Go look at last event 3"-4" of rain, I picked up 0.80".. I look at guidance more than anyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It was a pretty good run anyways lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Hey wolf, what's your average yearly snowfall there. Around 200? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Vegas fired Gallant after the Sabres beat them last night...Crazy! They are an expansion team with unprecedented success as a new team. He's a fantastic coach. I like Krueger but would 100% fire him for Gallant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Build up that base in saranac lake please. I want to hike up a 5k mountain with 4-5 feet on the ground. Hey BW, this is a good site to track the high peaks snowpack of both Vermont and NY as Mount Mansfield is a great metric for all the high peaks snowpack as its historically holds snow from January to April every single year. As you can see, it's currently flirting with historically low snow right now but that should change dramatically over the next few weeks, or at least I hope it does. https://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Look how it slowly trends towards the rest of guidance..Now it's in the realm of possibilities.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hey wolf, what's your average yearly snowfall there. Around 200? I would guess 175.. 200 into the tug.. I know NWS map isn't the greatest but I'm in the middle of the 150"-200" zone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 RGEM has a band of LES setting up over northern erie Tomorrow night into friday morning. BTV likes the idea as well!Latest high resolution guidance also suggests a Georgian Bay bandwill meander through the area between Buffalo and Rochester,possibly extending down into the western Finger Lakes. This may dropa few inches locally on Thursday if the band is able to remain inone location for a few hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Last thing I will add is that I defended the icon a lot earlier in the year, hell I was born in Germany!! Lol It has been the trend starter at times and has it's moments.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 You wanna know the secret to being relaxed, take it out on the old lady..Bad gfs run? Girl get in the room, 5 min later good as new.. It's to the point she now roots for Rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Vegas fired Gallant after the Sabres beat them last night...Crazy! They are an expansion team with unprecedented success as a new team. He's a fantastic coach. I like Krueger but would 100% fire him for Gallant. I was shocked to see that this morning. Vegas is only 3pts away from being division lead. I don't understand this, but I'm starting to think it may have been intentional. Only reason I say that is because DeBoer was hired immediately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Gfs is a crush job over the next 7-10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Icon so bad it doesn't even register on verification scores, lol, its one of td he worst out there for sure! Sorry Dave, it's a fact and Wolfie showed it nicely above with Saturdays event. It had rain up to Ottawa, lol, and now they Jack and that was in 2 days of runs. The GGEM is even better than the ICON and that's not saying much! 1 Euro 2 GFS 3 UKMET and then the rest usually fall in line somewhere in between those 3 with time, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Gfs is a crush job over the next 7-10 days. Sure is but how believable is it is the ?, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It's all in good fun lol It doesn't bother me because I don't actually take it seriously.. I really should start to pay attention to tomorrows event first.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 All I’m saying is it’s a useful tool. Fair enough. The GFS looks more like what we will get but the ICON said, “push it NW to be safe”. It got an upgrade this year and I think it finds the warm bias. In a year like this, it’s sniffed out the cutters and crap temp profiles earlier than the others. It’s less apt to throw out weenie snow maps. We all know the GFS 120 maps need to be divided by a factor of 3 to be anywhere near accurate. Wolf, a lot of this isn’t even directed to your area because, well you know, u might as well live in an entirely different climate. The thruway’s temp profiles can be 10 degrees warmer than you Hill people. Ive found it to be surprisingly accurate this year. Plus, I gotta model hug. Last year it was the GEM, I figured, ‘why not the ICON this year?’ Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Icon so bad it doesn't even register on verification scores, lol, its one of td he worst out there for sure! Sorry Dave, it's a fact and Wolfie showed it nicely above with Saturdays event. It had rain up to Ottawa, lol, and now they Jack and that was in 2 days of runs. The GGEM is even better than the ICON and that's not saying much! 1 Euro 2 GFS 3 UKMET and then the rest usually fall in line somewhere in between those 3 with time, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You understand verication chart uses like a single metric divided over all of North America? Yeah, the big data models gonna win. When most of the board was jumping on a big weekend snowstorm, the ICON and me were saying, maybe slow up. The euro has been pretty crap this year. It did ok with this one. It’s still the king but I think it’s lost some luster. And I’ll be the first to say my verification record is not great. But the constant barrage of hatred towards the ICON is more about the message and less about the messenger. It’s warm- and so far at least 75% of our tracks have ended up warm. IDK. I can recall winters where everything ticked SE as time progressed. This ain’t that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The farther NW it goes the better actually. We can get a nice SW flow behind it for a few hours. NW trend continues!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I would guess 175.. 200 into the tug.. I know NWS map isn't the greatest but I'm in the middle of the 150"-200" zone.. The Tug averages 250-300" I thought? Perrysburg south of Buffalo averages 225" a year. Colden/Boston around 180-210". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 44 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Hey BW, this is a good site to track the high peaks snowpack of both Vermont and NY as Mount Mansfield is a great metric for all the high peaks snowpack as its historically holds snow from January to April every single year. As you can see, it's currently flirting with historically low snow right now but that should change dramatically over the next few weeks, or at least I hope it does. https://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ This is amazing. Thanks for this. I have to buy crampons for our hike. I cannot wait. I also need new gear, hiking up 5k mountains with temps in the single digits and 4' of snow can be dangerous. Hopefully we see some moose of wolves too, last time they saw a moose up there. ( I think it was New Hampshire though) Not sure if moose are in the dacks still? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The Tug averages 250-300" I thought? Perrysburg south of Buffalo averages 225" a year. Colden/Boston around 180-210". Yeah probably in the right ball park.. I just put 200+ in the tug like the NWS has lol Obviously every year is different.. I can find years were Fulton and Palermo have had more snow than Redfield, not N Redfield lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This is from Scott hetsko, I think a met out of Kroc? I'm on the border of 200" on this particular image. Yes I know it has a gap in numbers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Vegas fired Gallant after the Sabres beat them last night...Crazy! They are an expansion team with unprecedented success as a new team. He's a fantastic coach. I like Krueger but would 100% fire him for Gallant. Make Krueger GM and Fire botcherall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Ggem still on the colder/wetter side of guidance..This is only the synoptic system on Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Make Krueger GM and Fire botcherall. This would be amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is amazing. Thanks for this. I have to buy crampons for our hike. I cannot wait. I also need new gear, hiking up 5k mountains with temps in the single digits and 4' of snow can be dangerous. Hopefully we see some moose of wolves too, last time they saw a moose up there. ( I think it was New Hampshire though) Not sure if moose are in the dacks still? In my experience microspikes are more than adequate for ADK high peak winter hikes (a good pair though). I hiked Gothics in December when it was quite icy, and microspikes worked just fine. Make sure to have at least one hiking partner. And choose your peak(s) wisely. I hiked Wright a few winters ago. Got above tree line and had difficulty following cairns to the peak with 50+ mph winds and near 0 vis. Summit of Wright is notorious for high winds and severe conditions. I'm heading up to Lake Placid tomorrow, mostly cross-country skiing rather than hiking this trip. That is if the snow makes an appearance in time. Will post some pics to get you jazzed up for your trip! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I just want everyone here to get enough snow next week that I cant get down my driveway when i get back from vaca. At least that's what happened last time i was in St Lucia 10 years ago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Storm is still there. Up to hr 240 now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Storm is still there. Up to hr 240 now lol Saw that. GFS back to a just offshore coastal track and the thermal profiles look more like what one would expect. Over the past few days system has looked funky although it has had the storm with an inland track. Something to keep an eye on while some of us await our mixed precip events to start over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro unchanged.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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