CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: When there is an ever present trough over Hawaii just East of the DL it pretty much pushes everything Eastward as I mentioned yesterday with the forcing. If that forcing had been displaced further West as it is East we'd be under a constant Trough as the North atlantic has been! I may have an illustration Look at the constant trough out across the NA now imagine it over us and if the forcing didn't screw us the way it did we'd be having a much different discussion, lol At the end of this illustration you can see a trough once again starting to form in and around HI and if it stays to HI West then I'd expect a dump of cold into the East the next couple weeks but sustained, IDK. If it propagates to its East as I think its going to then we get more of the same. Yeah I can speak of the AAM-GLAMM-MT ( Mountain Torque) and all those useless acronyms and what not, to perhaps sound intelligent, lol, but who would understand any of it on this forum except Met majors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: $10 virtual bucks Buffalo gets above 40 on Saturday. I agree and raise you $5 that it goes higher, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 You guys are getting to pricey for me, I'm out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: At the end of this illustration you can see a trough once again starting to form in and around HI and if it stays to HI West then I'd expect a dump of cold into the East the next couple weeks but sustained, IDK. If it propagates to its East as I think its going to then we get more of the same. Yeah I can speak of the AAM-GLAMM-MT ( Mountain Torque) and all those useless acronyms and what not, to perhaps sound intelligent, lol, but who would understand any of it on this forum except Met majors? I agree with everything you posted, but MJO convection has been the root cause of our warm weather. As you already stated its been out of the cold phases since November. We need 8/1/2. It looks like it gets to 7 and starts to migrate back again the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I agree with everything you posted, but MJO convection has been the root cause of our warm weather. As you already stated its been out of the cold phases since November. We need 8/1/2. It looks like it gets to 7 and starts to migrate back again the next few weeks. Yeah lets hope, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 LR NAM getting into range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 I may have to get my snow fix on the south New Zealand glaciers in April. That is if they don't melt by then too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR NAM getting into range.. Next frame temps actually crash lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just to show u how close it is lol Problem is that big green area translates east. Seen a fair amount of modeling that seems to show a heavier precip "band" up in that general area of NY so you may be good there as it should be mostly/all SN. Down here in South Beach we will flip for the last several hours, with lower precip rates fortunately. I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro doesn't have that big green lol Actually mix line stays near Kroc, Nam and Canadian also colder than the gfs.. The reason the clown maps look like poop is lack of precip, 1/3"-1/2" LE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It's the big blob of nothing that's the killer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's the big blob of nothing that's the killer lol This is a shitty storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: This is a shitty storm. The farther NW it goes the better actually. We can get a nice SW flow behind it for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Yup ... If the system didn't slow down things could of been different.. Originally I had 70%pops for Friday evening, now snow doesn't start till early Saturday afternoon..It allowed the HP to move north but it's still close enough to stop it from going much farther north than L.Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The farther NW it goes the better actually. We can get a nice SW flow behind it for a few hours. I actually think you could get into it for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Icon as usual the warmest model for both systems, that model is as inconsistent as they come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 LR NAM getting into range.. I think the Nam has the best presentation as far as 2M temps are concerned so we'll see but its still 3 days from fruition. Theres absolutely no way we dont ping or see plain rain Saturday and the only way we don't is if that Pig over the Central GL's can weaken quick enough to halt the mid lvl WAA cause that's the problem but not this far North. If this was a TRUE CUTTER we'd be approaching the mid 60's once again on Saturday but it's a hooker, whereas it hooks kinda NNW before it smacks into a tremendous HP situated over Ontario and Quebec Provinces and then it stops and heads straight East and almost Slightly ESE but it has to redevelop, absolutely must and if it doesn't, we're toast but I'm hedging the opposite way after looking more closely at the mid lvl but I hate the H700 prognosis cause it's just not a conducive one for an abundance of both Gulf and ATL moisture cause both are open for business. If one looks closely, you can see the convection from the Trop Pacific getting drawn North pretty much joining the gulf moisture heading NE which usually doesn't happen with a neutral ENSO butbit most certainly is. Personally I think the Atmosphere doesn't know WTF is going on across this planet the past several yrs or so it seems. It almost looks confused, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12z vs 0z for an event starting overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 RGEM has a band of LES setting up over northern erie Tomorrow night into friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 TWC has 12+ across the area and an area of 6-8" just to the South of KROC which is usually the case with these kinds of events. This time around though the biggest difference will be the hefty amt of LE cause temps plummet so enhancement should be beneficial throughout the area as moisture is plentiful so we'll see I suppose!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12z vs 0z for an event starting overnight.. Yeah she definitely came a few tricks South and I think it continues to do so cause that HP means business!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Houses along Lake Huron are about to fall into the lake, cause this yr nothing is freezing! 3 already have fallen into Lake Michigan and that's nuts Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Hijacked this from another board Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Gfs by Sunday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1st system is the better one for Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 What a cutoff for Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gfs by Sunday morning.. Gotta love the minimas over BUF and KROC. You guys are wrong about the icon. It consistently performed better with Saturday’s storm. You just can’t stand that it often advertises the correct temp profiles. Yeah. It’s warm biased. So are our storms. It’s been right over and over again in this region (so don’t go showing me the verification charts- GFS had Saturday’s storm over N PA). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 1st system is the better one for Syracuse. I always thought this. That Low Position this weekend just kept getting worse and worse as the week went on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Bro it had all rain a couple days ago..Where's that now,? Who cares about track if it can't get temp profiles correct..It had rain to Quebec at one point.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It just flipped 75 miles in one run for tonight!!! Great model.. Euro has had the same track for 6 or 7 runs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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