rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro so far NW it doesn’t spin off a secondary. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Still 4 days out, but the trend this year is further NW as we get inside day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Using KSYR at 10:1 it was approximately: 3.3” on Thursday 3.8” on Saturday and looking like another 3ish on Sunday. With some good ratios it’s not terrible... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 We actually never flip over here lol It does develop a secondary, late but it acts as a double barrel, becomes the primary in the gulf of maine..Not sure what effect this would have on enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Still 4 days out, but the trend this year is further NW as we get inside day 4. If you're going with the this track is different, and I'm in agreement with that, then I believe this is the euro over amping itself as it normally does...o think with the impending pattern change coming the models are all having a difficult time exactly how that'll happen. This may not be set until Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: We actually never flip over here lol It does develop a secondary, late but it acts as a double barrel, becomes the primary in the gulf of maine..Not sure what effect this would have on enhancement.. And KBUF for an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 U can see some enhancement NE of the lakes, probably due to wsw flow with the a system passing by to the west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We actually never flip over here lol It does develop a secondary, late but it acts as a double barrel, becomes the primary in the gulf of maine..Not sure what effect this would have on enhancement.. It's funny how it shows mixing at ksyr with heavy snow all around it lol Not that I buy that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's funny how it shows mixing at ksyr with heavy snow all around it lol Upstate UHI! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: We actually never flip over here lol It does develop a secondary, late but it acts as a double barrel, becomes the primary in the gulf of maine..Not sure what effect this would have on enhancement.. Looks like a nice hot for Plattsburgh. To bad I won’t be there till the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Looks like a nice hot for Plattsburgh. To bad I won’t be there till the 20th I was just thinking about you. P-burgh looks dang good for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I feel horrible for upstate but there is no better time for a storm to nudge north than this weekend when I'll be in Mont Treblant Quebec! Would love to catch a solid powder day as they have been non-existent on the East Coast this year. Fingers crossed. Some of the earlier runs were good for both NY and Quebec, would have loved to see one of them come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I feel horrible for upstate but there is no better time for a storm to nudge north than this weekend when I'll be in Mont Treblant Quebec! Would love to catch a solid powder day as they have been non-existent on the East Coast this year. Fingers crossed. Some of the earlier runs were good for both NY and Quebec, would have loved to see one of them come to fruition. You should be golden that far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I feel horrible for upstate but there is no better time for a storm to nudge north than this weekend when I'll be in Mont Treblant Quebec! Would love to catch a solid powder day as they have been non-existent on the East Coast this year. Fingers crossed. Some of the earlier runs were good for both NY and Quebec, would have loved to see one of them come to fruition. I'm also glad as it means I probably wont go through the hell of canceled flights I went through last year trying to get out out of Buffalo Saturday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You should be golden that far north Oh I'm good, the only question is how good. 5 inches of POW, or 12 inches!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Euro so far NW it doesn’t spin off a secondary. Wow. If it does spin off a secondary, that would probably go north and west too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Oh I'm good, the only question is how good. 5 inches of POW, or 12 inches!! I’m off to Jackson Hole next week. They’ve been getting crushed. Everytime I check their cams it’s like a snow globe. I’m so psyched. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Doesn't really matter much anyway..Nam gave us more when we started as rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Hi Rez is north with the surface low, but still all snow.. Little better verbatim than the 12k.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Hwo An area of low pressure will cross the area Wednesday night through Thursday, producing accumulating snow. The greatest accumulations will be found across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks, where 4 to 8 inches of accumulation is possible. Deep low pressure will then move across the region this weekend. This system will produce widespread accumulating snow on Saturday and gusty winds Saturday night and Sunday. Additional accumulations of lake effect snow will be possible on Sunday when the gusty winds could support blowing and drifting snow in open areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 A rather potent mid level shortwave and surface low will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, exiting into New England on Thursday. This compact, fast moving system will usher much colder air back into our region and mark the start of a much colder and more wintry pattern after a long period of mild weather. DPVA ahead of the mid level trough and a wing of warm advection ahead of the surface low will support a few showers spreading quickly from west to east across the region Wednesday evening. Temperatures will rise into the low or even mid 40s from western Oswego County westward Wednesday evening, so most of this will initially fall as rain. The one possible exception is east of Lake Ontario, where colder temperatures surface and aloft may support some wet snow right from the onset. Given the warm temperatures, any snow accumulation will be minimal through most of Wednesday night. The one exception will be the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks, where initial colder temperatures and upslope flow may support a few inches of accumulation Wednesday night. Strong cold advection will develop late Wednesday night following the passage of the surface low center, which moves almost directly overhead. A period of deep wrap around moisture, strong DPVA with the mid level shortwave, and developing lake instability will support snow showers becoming more widespread late Wednesday night and Thursday morning as temperatures drop rapidly below freezing. The higher QPF amounts during this period will be closely tied to terrain, with developing WNW upslope flow combined with increasing lake instability providing enhancement. This will target the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario, and the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills, and Wyoming County east of Lake Erie. Both areas should see a period of accumulating snow very late Wednesday night through Thursday. Later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night the orographic enhancement will give way to a more pure lake effect signal as a cold pool aloft settles over the eastern Great Lakes. This will support lake induced equilibrium levels of 8-10K feet Thursday, slowly dropping to around 6K feet by late Thursday night as inversion heights lower. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will reside within the cloud bearing layer, supporting large, fluffy dendrites. Boundary layer flow will become northwest, supporting fairly widespread snow showers and narrow bands of snow southeast of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 A lot to get through lol Southeast of Lake Erie, the snow will be most persistent across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, where a Lake Huron connection may also provide some enhancement. This snow will be most widespread Thursday morning, before slowly backing off in coverage and intensity Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Expect total accumulations of 4-6 inches across the higher terrain from late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Southeast of Lake Ontario, the initial upslope driven response across the Tug Hill will evolve into lake effect snow showers southeast of the lake Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This will produce some modest accumulations from Wayne to Oswego counties, although the lack of terrain to help in this area and the lack of a Georgian Bay connection will keep accumulations limited to 2-4, or perhaps 3-5 inches in the most persistent bands. The heavier snow amounts will end up on the Tug Hill, with totals of 4-8 inches from Wednesday night through Thursday night from the initial synoptic system, then lake enhanced upslope flow. Latest high resolution guidance also suggests a Georgian Bay band will meander through the area between Buffalo and Rochester, possibly extending down into the western Finger Lakes. This may drop a few inches locally on Thursday if the band is able to remain in one location for a few hours. Outside of these main lake effect areas, sporadic snow showers will produce a dusting to an inch of accumulation Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 35 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Doesn't really matter much anyway..Nam gave us more when we started as rain lol Build up that base in saranac lake please. I want to hike up a 5k mountain with 4-5 feet on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Nice to see snow totals for Thursday but no hint of anything for sat/sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Icon is now acceptable because it fits in with the consensus lol Track is gfs/euro like.. That's one hell of a band just to the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Everyone seriously needs to stop looking at precip output maps because they ruin it all, and they NEVER pan out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon is now acceptable because it fits in with the consensus lol Track is gfs/euro like.. That's one hell of a band just to the east.. upslope on Southerly winds, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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