wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 NWS claims that's 24-36 hours of snow lol So don't expect any headlines or heavy precip rates.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Possiblity stormy back to back weekends.. Been watching this one from afar but not trying to get to far ahead of myself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wolfie the next few weeks with all these models runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Take a look at the last 8 runs of the gfs. Notice anything? Lol Slowed down considerably.. This allows the HP more time to slowly retreat north. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 So such thing as a consensus a week out, we knew changes were coming lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Possiblity stormy back to back weekends.. Been watching this one from afar but not trying to get to far ahead of myself lol Been eyeing that storm also. Long way out and GFS thermal profile is AFU ahead of the panel you posted. Too warm. Verbatim its rain to snow on the snow/ice display but not seeing rain with the 540 line well south of NY... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Been eyeing that storm also. Long way out and GFS thermal profile is AFU ahead of the panel you posted. Too warm. Verbatim its rain to snow on the snow/ice display but not seeing rain with the 540 line well south of NY... That storm would be an old fashioned 12 to 18 all over WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 There's that longwave trough I've been talking about in the long range. The significant weekend storm could very likely be a pattern changing system...as long range guidance and forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center suggest that a deep longwave trough will become dominant over the eastern half of the continent as we push through the second half of the month. This would favor below normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Buffalo is -14.2" of snow for the date and +11.6 for temps today likely adds 1 or 2 degrees to that. Hard to believe Buffalo has had more snow this year than last year to date. 33.5" vs 32.4". But last year we had a large storm starting in a few days and the 2nd half of January was pretty solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Going to be a strong band somewhere just north of the mix line, as it currently stands. We'll see in a couple days when SR guidance is available.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Going to be a strong band somewhere just north of the mix line, as it currently stands. We'll see in a couple days when SR guidance is available.. The best tasting part of the steak is right along the line of fat... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wpc picking up on it..But obviously any change in track will have consequences.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Here is for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It’s gonna be tough to have have two potential snow makers track right over us with their taint. Just when you thought this crap couldn’t get any worse 19/20 winter says, “hold my beer”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I don't think we flip until that warm front moves through, followed closely by a CF few hours later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 That's why when this system was progged over L.Erie it was still snow at kbuf..Now with the inevitable North trend with the primary, warm front is being pushed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 These are some good indices for a common storm track to bring us snow over the next few weeks https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 This is also a two part system. Once the CF swings through and the secondary gets going we will see some enhancement and LES..Maybe south shore can cash in on the back end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is also a two part system. Once the CF swings through and the secondary gets going we will see some enhancement and LES..Maybe south shore can cash in on the back end. That’s actually a pretty great set up. Give it time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: That’s actually a pretty great set up. Give it time KBUF seems hell bent on there being a good amount of Lake enhancement south and Southeast of the lakes on Sunday and Sunday night as the first low acts as a inverted trough bringing Atlantic moisture back over the lakes on a NNW direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: KBUF seems hell bent on there being a good amount of Lake enhancement south and Southeast of the lakes on Sunday and Sunday night as the first low acts as a inverted trough bringing Atlantic moisture back over the lakes on a NNW direction. That's a nice setup - if it happens. The lake is primed for a good NNW event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The one limited factor for south shore LE, following ‘the storm’, will be wind. But, it’s the only interesting game in town. So we watch. Im just blown away by BUFS excitement for this weekends storm. They act as if a 5 year blizzard is on its way. From my perspective this storm looks about as impactful as the last one (not very). They are usually right. Just don’t see what they see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The one limited factor for south shore LE, following ‘the storm’, will be wind. But, it’s the only interesting game in town. So we watch. Im just blown away by BUFS excitement for this weekends storm. They act as if a 5 year blizzard is on its way. From my perspective this storm looks about as impactful as the last one (not very). They are usually right. Just don’t see what they see. It's rare to see them this bold so far out...usually it's the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: It's rare to see them this bold so far out...usually it's the opposite. It's why im kinda excited...our track record as a group has been, well, as good as zippy chippy, dick trickle and the 2017 Cleveland Browns...heres to hoping the BUF NWS finally knows more than we do... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Here was the ukmet total precipitation and still snowing.. Obviously we don't know how much is rain vs snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It's why im kinda excited...our track record as a group has been, well, as good as zippy chippy, dick trickle and the 2017 Cleveland Browns...heres to hoping the BUF NWS finally knows more than we do... The last KBGM AFD that I read was less sanguine about the weekend system. Kind of more what I would expect this far out. The aviation terminal part does mention rain or snow affecting terminals... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Lake Erie is 38 degrees today. 4 degrees above average. With long range outlook Erie might actually freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Here was the ukmet total precipitation and still snowing.. Obviously we don't know how much is rain vs snow.. Every model has that precip minima over the usual zone of death in the western Finger lakes south of ROC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Every model has that precip minima over the usual zone of death in the western Finger lakes south of ROC. With the track over the lake it putts the valley in a downslope situ. It’s rain by then anyways. Turn off the faucet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks nothing like what the NWS has for Thursday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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