CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm gonna be honest about the weekend event that bothers me and thats the H700 LP cause its all the way up near Lake Superior and it basically shows a cold front passage, as far as moisture is concerned, so we do need some serious changes wrt the upper lvls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Definitely needs some work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 GFS ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 That doesn't include the wrap around portion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wether it's right or wrong is another story entirely lol But plenty of cold air when precip arrives.. We could get shards of glass with how cold it may be , at first lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Wether it's right or wrong is another story entirely lol But plenty of cold air when precip arrives.. We could get shards of glass with how cold it may be , at first lol That includes Whatever falls Thursday also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 That's a kuchera ratio map lol I Know looks just like a clown map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks like the icon is starting to catch on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like the icon is starting to catch on.. That warm nose...could be the Destroyer of dreams for most of this forum. Need more improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I was showing how erratic it is.. Drastic changes from one run to the next.. Last run it was in saskatchewan..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The warm tongue is now on the Icon, GFS, and Euro...right into the Syracuse area. GFS totals continue to decrease with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Should be some big LES on the backside of that low with well aligned flow, good moisture and temps. (NW Flow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gotta smell the taint my friend lol We mix a little with a dying primary so be it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Is there any such thing as a nice, clean snowstorm with no taint? lol My call for SYR area: 2 to 5 inches, then rain showers/dry slot, then lake effect on the back side...probably hitting Auburn to Tully the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gotta smell the taint my friend lol We mix a little with a dying primary so be it.. This is 2-5" from BUF to SYR. The Lake Effect behind it is where the action may be, if you're lucky enough to get under some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 We'll see what Euro brings but we need the system to not head from the lee of the Rockies towards MSP. Most NWP has been showing something roughly similar. That track and translation east has to be a 100-150 miles further south to get a major snowstorm here. Fortunately it's still Tues 00Z...and there is LES potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 At least we’ll get a couple hours before the taint. It was always a terrible track (minus one gfs run). Backside should be good for some interest. February will hopefully give us more traditional winter stuff. We can hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GEM looks much better than 00Z GFS, SLP heads toward STL and not MSP, and then on to CLE and BUF. Column stays colder as warm nose much further south. Probably some taint in SW NY and So. Tier but that's it. More of a 5-10" snowfall for most of CNY/WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 So is the 6z GFS...well more north than yesterday's runs. We move on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Still a lot of snowfall on the 6z...this run also looks strange to me how the LP jumps from the middle of the country to Wisconsin then basically moves ENE from there. Still not a lot of warmth per the models but I'm guessing with this run we thump, mix, then lighter snows/lake enhanced backside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Still a lot of snowfall on the 6z...this run also looks strange to me how the LP jumps from the middle of the country to Wisconsin then basically moves ENE from there. Still not a lot of warmth per the models but I'm guessing with this run we thump, mix, then lighter snows/lake enhanced backside. Remarkably we could have two systems in a row where we rain/snizzle during the night (Overnight Wednesday/Saturday) and snow THREE times during the day (Thursday/Saturday/Sunday). i imagine that hasn’t happened too often up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I think Once the first low gets over taken by the second low off the coast it will be a colder situation Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think Once the first low gets over taken by the second low off the coast it will be a colder situation Saturday night. I still think we mix for a while. Initial thump of 2-3 inches then we switch over to a mix for a bit then back to snow for another 2-3” once that secondary does take over and winds flip NW. sometimes those backside lake effect/lake enhanced can surprise especially north of Buffalo but I wouldn’t count on more than 3-6” total for the Niagara Frontier. I could see 6-12” over the hills though with much more lake effect/enhancement on the backside with better ratios too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I still think we mix for a while. Initial thump of 2-3 inches then we switch over to a mix for a bit then back to snow for another 2-3” once that secondary does take over and winds flip NW. sometimes those backside lake effect/lake enhanced can surprise especially north of Buffalo but I wouldn’t count on more than 3-6” total for the Niagara Frontier. I could see 6-12” over the hills though with much more lake effect/enhancement on the backside with better ratios too. Read the buf AFD...it made me tingle a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 My thought is 4 to 8 from the thump and the back side then another 3 or 4 areawide Sunday with widespread lake enhancement...i wouldn't be shocked if by Monday most of WNY is low end 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 These northern solutions aren't the worst thing for me lol I don't care about mixing much, but the primary is staying stronger for longer, no moisture being shunted east.. That is near a foot during the heart of the event, with a little mixing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 About 2 feet when all said and done, verbatim, between Thursday and Saturday+LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Kbuf first storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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