BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 So let's see what's going to happen. The first storm goes to far north and we get warm and rain, the second storm just misses us to the NW and we get rain and warm. Then we get really cold air and a really dry airmass. Sounds about status quo for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 These are the temps when precipitation is arriving.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Stronger WAA=heavier thump but also warmer temperatures.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Take it fwiw.. 12z top,0z bottom Oddly 12z does have more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Mlb just came down pretty hard on the Astros, nice!! Lol Coach and gm suspended all year with no pay..Lose 1st and 2nd round draft pics the next 2 seasons..5 million dollar penalty which is the max.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The difference between the euro and the GFS is the Bermuda high...one has it one doesn't Which do you think is correct? Has the Bermuda high shown any interest in dissipating? You know which camp I’m in. Cuttter all the way. Brief front thump (much more in CNY). Like a broken record. Gets old don’t it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 ^ in house model doesn't have a good snow algorithm it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: ^ in house model doesn't have a good snow algorithm it seems. Actually I saw this at noon on lunch...mike actually stated that was the euro output...even though I hate to give him a pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Mlb just came down pretty hard on the Astros, nice!! Lol Coach and gm suspended all year with no pay..Lose 1st and 2nd round draft pics the next 2 seasons..5 million dollar penalty which is the max.. They should've cheated the old fashioned way. Using cameras and TV feeds is what did them in I suspect. At least Beltran didn't get suspended. Mets have enough self-inflicted problems to overcome every single year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Sounds like Cora is next for cheating in 2018 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This system is different, that's why. We are not seeing a system rapidly intensify and cut from Ohio up through our forum. It's sliding across from Michigan into NYS. Much more likely to stay all snow this way. I just don't understand how ppl don't see this, lol? It's NOT A CUTTER and if it did get to KCLE we'd either dry-slot or go over to snizzle then get pounced with LE on a NW-WNW flow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 54 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Which do you think is correct? Has the Bermuda high shown any interest in dissipating? You know which camp I’m in. Cuttter all the way. Brief front thump (much more in CNY). Like a broken record. Gets old don’t it? Whats getting old is you saying the same thing every post, RLMAO! We all know its a dud of a Winter and its not likely to change but when there is a chance, it gets dismissed automatically because of past events and its understandable but not warranted every event! EPO is headed negative is a +, PNA is headed Pos, albeit slowly a +, a double barrel banana high a +, an antecedent cold air mass, fresh batch of Modified AA a + and the NAO is headed towards Neutral so I think we stand a much better chance this go around but we'll see right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: After that...things should turn much more unsettled again Friday night and Saturday as a pronounced upper level trough digs across the Great Lakes and becomes increasingly negatively tilted...while its attendant surface low strengthens and tracks near or across our region. Increasing large-scale forcing and moisture associated with this system should bring about a return to increasingly widespread precipitation for Friday night and Saturday...for which PoPs have been further bumped up to the categorical range. Initially...the precip should begin as all snow Friday night and early Saturday...with an influx of milder air out ahead of the low potentially resulting in the snow then mixing with and/or changing over to rain across western New York for part of Saturday...before transitioning back to snow following the passage of its trailing cold front later Saturday and Saturday night. Depending upon the exact track of this system...there could also be a threat for strong to potentially damaging winds along and behind its trailing cold front...though this currently appears at least a bit lower than what was seen at this time yesterday with the 00z medium range models trending the track of the low notably closer to our area. The above said...there is still plenty of time for this to change...so stay tuned. On the back side of this system...much colder air will overspread our area Saturday night and Sunday. With 850 mb temps currently progged to drop into the lower half of the negative teens and a sufficiently moist westerly to west-northwesterly flow in place... lake effect snow should become likely east and east-southeast of the lakes for the last 24 hours of this period...while temperatures fall to well below normal levels. That's not updated yet...thats still this morning's report...waiting for the 4pm AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Lets be real kbuf ain't updating haha.. They are pretty lazy when it comes to med-long range... When I lived in Kalb cwa they updated LR like every cycle.. Hopefully I'm wrong.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Binghamton In terms of sensible weather, all of this means that a potentially significant storm is becoming more likely to impact the area Friday night through Saturday, with most of the precipitation potentially as snow. While it is way too early to speculate on amounts due to the above mentioned uncertainties, this is definitely a storm worth watching and we will continue to add more specifics to the forecast as we get closer. As this storm system departs on Sunday, lake effect/lake enhanced snow showers become likely in Central New York with a cold northwest flow. 3 PM Update...Forecast remains on-track with still a high possibility for an impactful snow storm this weekend with good agreement among the major forecast models and ensembles. No changes to the long term forecast at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 KBUF office 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Which do you think is correct? Has the Bermuda high shown any interest in dissipating? You know which camp I’m in. Cuttter all the way. Brief front thump (much more in CNY). Like a broken record. Gets old don’t it? Think you need to look at the Aleutian LP to see how the downstream reacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 KBUF updated their LR AFD? Mainly snow now... The corresponding surface low located over the central U.S. on Friday evening will track northeast passing through the area on Saturday. With the entrance of this system, precipitation chances will increase from west to east. Most of this precipitation will fall in the form of snow. The low pressure system looks to track east/northeast through the area on Saturday. With the passage of the low, its corresponding cold front will fill colder air into the area keeping the widespread precipitation as snow throughout the day on Saturday and Saturday night. As it looks now, there could possibly be strong to damaging winds along and behind the trailing cold front, however this depends on the track of the low. Albeit, this still has time to change so we will have to keep our eye on it as we move forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Nam cuts through CNY on Thursday, rain/mix flipping to snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nam cuts through CNY on Thursday, rain/mix flipping to snow.. Neat little event because the rain would be overnight but the snow would be during the day on Thursday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Well slap my ass and call me fanny...buf actually updated the weekend storm and...they gave it staying mainly as snow.....evem with the overhead track... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Hot off the presses, day 3.. Slight chance is better than no chance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 To bad it wasn't just a little more south lol Both Gfs/Nam have similar looks wrt to some wrap around moisture, enhancement and lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Obviously it won’t see the LES amounts correctly too (esp this far out - errr - ever). Will be some serious high ratio fluff on Sunday. Can’t wait for that while the football games are on! It’s been too long! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 24th-26th is another period to watch.. Been showing up on the gfs last few runs.. Models usually do well pin-pointing times of interest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 My area is a snow repellent this yr, so far, but every so often we get thrown a bone, like that one meso in November, lol, so maybe, just maybe this wed-thurs event can be that once every so often, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: My area is a snow repellent this yr, so far, but every so often we get thrown a bone, like that one meso in November, lol, so maybe, just maybe this wed-thurs event can be that once every so often, lol! We can’t overlook that one. It’s got a lot of potential to give some areas several inches with that flow and the lakes so anomalously warm. I posit many could see more from that than the weekend! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It's Thursdays event that gets the pattern to start changing so thats an important event! That also becomes the 50/50, so its a real important one, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, 96blizz said: We can’t overlook that one. It’s got a lot of potential to give some areas several inches with that flow and the lakes so anomalously warm. I posit many could see more from that than the weekend! Good luck! Yeah. I kinda like the Thursday thing. It’s close to good. Need a 50 mile bump south to get the thruway corridor involved. These can be impressive with lake help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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