BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Another impressive run on the gfs..See what the rest of 0z suite shows, not that it mean much lol Definitely a storm to watch there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm not sure if it's due to the secondary development but u only have to be a mile or two north of the ULL to see snow lol cold air really fights, for now.. These are the warmest frames.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Concerning Thursday the gfs shifted North over CNY, rain to snow showers.. Canadian takes a pretty good track across the NY/PA border, few inches verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: This is the one, not a lot science behind it but a pattern is a pattern. I'd love to see that pattern get smashed with a strong February. Similar trend up this way in Toronto since 2000. Hoping we turn it around this decade. February has been our strongest month in recent times, hoping that trend continues atleast lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think you're right with the initial surge of cold air, but still think the longwave trough sets up from Dakotas to NE by the end of the month and sticks for a bit. Kind of like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I’m not getting my hopes up on Saturdays storm. I’d put big money on a cut solution as seen in navgem or icon. It looks exactly like all the others we’ve seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Ggem was solid, a lot of NW flow in the LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Have a hard time believing it doesnt ping atleast to I-81 if a primary low advances into Ontario Province. Strong HP good for keeping surface below freezing so plain rain shouldnt be a problem outside of maybe far W NY, but models always seem to underestimate warm nose somewhere in the 700-850mb layers and seen it ping many a times in these situations even with air temp of 19 degrees. 540 decameter line is usually a decent quick and dirty estimate of where can expect atleast some mixing issues to enter equation. Best chance for 6+ across E NY. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro is coming in south, looks like a big hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro was quick thump, need to watch where the transfer happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Greetings from your NYC weenie Gfs just became more progressive. Very nice hit for your area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Definitely a storm to watch there. 6z is all snow throughout...at 10:1 it's 10" on the GFS output...then a lot of cold behind that system for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6z euro in as well, all snow and the entire upstate area betwern 6 to 10 inches. Nice to see both models with similar ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Its a ways out but anyone have thoughts on timing saturday? I have a 530 am flight to nyc to catch, second leg to st lucia is at 830... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Its a ways out but anyone have thoughts on timing saturday? I have a 530 am flight to nyc to catch, second leg to st lucia is at 830... As of this very early juncture per the models there will be accumulations at that time already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Snow should be in the buffalo area between 1am-7am Saturday, a little earlier if the Canadian is correct..This goes for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 6z gefs Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Gefs mean is kbuf 8.5", Kroc 8.8", ksyr 11.9"..JP is just to the east of here into the Adirondacks with 12"-15", which is obviously pretty impressive for a mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gefs mean is kbuf 8.5", Kroc 8.8", ksyr 11.9"..JP is just to the east into the Adirondacks with 12"-15" which is obviously pretty impressive for a mean lol Incredibly the NWS buf is already using categorical pops 5 days out...im liking what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Perfect storm to lay a nice base for the next few weeks. Will make it actually feel like winter if it comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It really is incredible to have these tracks with the ULL's and that kind of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It really is incredible to have these tracks with the ULL's and that kind of snow lol That gives me pause about this system...we'll see how modelology evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It all comes do these bad boys...Sort of a banana high? LP quite weak as well, at least in the early going.. We also have a rapidly deepening secondary off the MA coast which saves WNY, now if the primary hangs on longer we know what the outcome usually is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Looks like good wrap around and moisture for awhile after departing low transfers with lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 That Thursday system keeps bouncing around. From a stronger cutter to a weak wave south of us and now a weak wave over us lol WPC yesterday alluded to the fact that we have more spread on the 16th system than the 18th lol NWS going all snow atm which seems a bit sketchy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Yes I agree their might be a few hour period of 8 to 1 but the majority looks 10 or dare I say 12 or 15 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: That Thursday system keeps bouncing around. From a stronger cutter to a weak wave south of us and now a weak wave over us lol WPC yesterday alluded to the fact that we have more spread on the 16th system than the 18th lol NWS going all snow atm which seems a bit sketchy.. All snow for which system Wolfie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 That system on the 16th helps us anchor in the HP for longer, not allowing it to quickly retreat.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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