BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The biggest difference between the projected weekend storm and previous cutters is the cold out ahead of the system..I don't care about snowdepth I care about Snowfall. It takes time for SW flow to reach eastern Ontario region.. Temps aloft would support ice/sleet with that path for all of us. Those are surface temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 This is why the clipper pattern is the best pattern. You don’t get torches Or even thaws. You get constant snow every couple days. It makes it feel like winter. You may not get the whopper synoptic system but imo it’s worth it. You can still get big time les in that pattern too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 WTF is this puke. F.F.F!!!! G-Damnit this f-I gotta winter blows. Christ! It’s not even funny. this is springtime crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is why the clipper pattern is the best pattern. You don’t get torches Or even thaws. You get constant snow every couple days. It makes it feel like winter. You may not get the whopper synoptic system but imo it’s worth it. You can still get big time les in that pattern too. This. I said the same thing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 And the western trough is gonna disappear just in time for my ski trip out west. Seriously. I’m blowing a gasket here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: WTF is this puke. F.F.F!!!! G-Damnit this f-I gotta winter blows. Christ! It’s not even funny. this is springtime crap Fortunately it's two weeks away. But, it certainly doesn't bring a sense of peace about winter actually settling in anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 I plan on ice skating the adirondack mountains feb 21-23. Everything better be a giant glacier by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I am going to be in Florida Feb. 21st. Winter better not come for one week in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 I still think the pattern change is coming as we see with the GEFS and EPS, just might be delayed a few more days. Nearly everything is showing it including analogs and it's not so far out to make it unlikely to occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Down to 39 in IAG...same as ART. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 LR gfs has that clipper pattern you guys are looking for but it's way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Believe it or not but we have Spring peepers already peeping away and its gonna be like this tomorrow as well so even the frogs think its Spring which is scary!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 this guy is completely nuts as he continues to compare this yr to 02-03and I keep telling him hes off his rocker, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 LR gfs has that clipper pattern you guys are looking for but it's way out there. Idk who wants a clipper pattern cause I don't! 2-3" events followed by frigid temps and multi banded LE, nah I'll pass as I'd rather 70F with Sun and a nice SW breeze. I'm so done with this Winter, that I could care less if it snows anymore, and I'm dead serious. FEB 1st is around the corner and by then, sun angle starts to come into play so for me, the best part of the Winter is pretty much over so on to Spring, Please!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Idk who wants a clipper pattern cause I don't! 2-3" events followed by frigid temps and multi banded LE, nah I'll pass as I'd rather 70F with Sun and a nice SW breeze. I'm so done with this Winter, that I could care less if it snows anymore, and I'm dead serious. FEB 1st is around the corner and by then, sun angle starts to come into play so for me, the best part of the Winter is pretty much over so on to Spring, Please! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I would MUCH rather have a clipper pattern than this crap up and down pattern with a gazillion thaws. At least with a clipper pattern it can look like WINTER. Clipper patterns are almost vital for a Great Lakes Winter to rock. East coast storms are often too far east, and if they're west...it's flipping cutter city. The one big pattern I would root for that doesn't involve a clipper pattern is one similar to the 90s, where lows actually moved up along the Appalachians and slammed the Apps mountains and upstate NY with snow. We don't seem to get these patterns anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Idk who wants a clipper pattern cause I don't! 2-3" events followed by frigid temps and multi banded LE, nah I'll pass as I'd rather 70F with Sun and a nice SW breeze. I'm so done with this Winter, that I could care less if it snows anymore, and I'm dead serious. FEB 1st is around the corner and by then, sun angle starts to come into play so for me, the best part of the Winter is pretty much over so on to Spring, Please! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Everything you mentioned sounds perfect. Frequent bouts of 2-3”, frigid temps, and prolonged cold to hold snow pack. Sun angle is not in play in February. We only have to go back 6 years to when we had a full 30 day consecutive period where we didnt crack freezing, and it happened in February. If that doesn’t make you happy after what we’ve been through the past 6 weeks; I’m convinced you’re just trolling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 67F at KSYR midnight reading. 37F an hour or so north at KART, 32F at Potsdam. Only 43 at my house though. Tight gradient. This is fantastic. I may go out and idle my jeep overnight to help bring more global warming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Check out the difference between the appearance of this storm during initialization on the models VS real life. Quite the difference. The storm certainly looks far stronger and wetter in the models. It’s actually has quite the ragged precip shield right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Check out the difference between the appearance of this storm during initialization on the models VS real life. Quite the difference. The storm certainly looks far stronger and wetter in the models. It’s actually has quite the ragged precip shield right now. Yes, many of the Great Lakes posters are talking about how this system has been a disappointment. They definitely aren't getting what was called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 This is a pretty cool depiction of streamflows ...showing why NNY is getting ZR while further south roasts. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.03,41.72,3000/loc=-71.725,40.501 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 You can see a pocket of very strong winds surging through central Ohio right now. Will be interested to see what Columbus gusts to over the next hour. That should give a good estimate of what we can expect around 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It's 41 degrees here, while it's 68 degrees on the other side of Syracuse! https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=43.16&lon=-76.33&zoom=8&pin=&rad=1&rad.type=00Q&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Not that it would add up to much but Canadian trended towards GFS for Wednesday..This was originally a 990s cutter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Ggem looks like a giant CF for the 18th with lots of NW Flow LES behind it.. Gfs is more of a big mess Heavy snow-mix/rain-moderate snow..Also has a good amount of NW lake effect .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Nothing but cutters on the 0z suite. Gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Nothing but cutters on the 0z suite. Gross. I thought the 0Z suite actually looked better? Thursday looks like it could provide 1 to 3 inches, and then the weekend looks like a front end thump with maybe some light rain/dry slot, and then snow showers and lake effect afterwards. The week after looks sort of boring, but cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Euro came in South as well for Wednesday night-thursday..1"-3"/2"-4" type deal..A little more south wouldn't hurt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just woke up to had to be 70++ mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just woke up to had to be 70++ mph gust Nice estimate B Dubs!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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