WNash Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Imagine if this was snow One can only dream. The source of this moisture is the Gulf of Mexico, right? It's not impossible for gulf moisture to fall as snow, but it's not a frequent occurrence. More likely, when we get crazy PWAT it's accompanied by warmer air with a higher PWAT value. I guess I prefer a downpour to an overrunning scenario with that water falling into 32F surface temps, but it would be cool to get true snowstorm from moisture like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Imagine if this was snow You know with this pattern I wouldn't be surprised if we see a juiced up system in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Wow, what a nightmare rainfall map for the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: HUGE improvement in indices today. Still no NAO so we are going to get the cold eventually, modeling rushes it a little bit. But major gains in the pacific. As wolfie pointed out I'd favor NW/W flow for LES if this holds true in 10-14 days. That would be excellent!!! I can go from soft, sloppy mud to frozen glacier mud!!! Either way that does most if us no good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, WNash said: One can only dream. The source of this moisture is the Gulf of Mexico, right? It's not impossible for gulf moisture to fall as snow, but it's not a frequent occurrence. More likely, when we get crazy PWAT it's accompanied by warmer air with a higher PWAT value. I guess I prefer a downpour to an overrunning scenario with that water falling into 32F surface temps, but it would be cool to get true snowstorm from moisture like this. Whenever I see the videos of snow falling from deep south systems, I always think the snowfall looks amazing. The moisture content creates some gigantic snowflakes down there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 The accuracy of the GFS, posted in the Mid Atlantic forum...This is why we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The accuracy of the GFS, posted in the Mid Atlantic forum...This is why we toss Pre-FV3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Pre-FV3? Great question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Great question If the data is operational model history, then likely pre-FV3 as I don't believe it was considered the official operational GFS last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: From the GL section as I talked about last night. The 00z EPS, in a big change in recent days, went to a broad west coast ridging and Alaska ridging out in day 10-15. PNA trended back to neutral on the teleconnection charts. So the hope there would be to not have an amplified western PNA ridge. If that sort of look verified as shown on the EPS it might be an active clipper/hybrid pattern versus the true dreaded CAD when the PNA ridging becomes more amplified and east based. Also that sort of pattern would be good for the lake effect belts. I've read some LR gurus wondering if EPS is rushing pattern change some, but it's done pretty well thus far this season. Edit: As posted above, that look would more likely favor the east coast for larger synoptic systems but still no signs of a -NAO. Great pattern for the snow belts East of the lakes. Not sure I’m excited to go into a cold dry pattern (Rochester anyway). Oh well, beats this horribleness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 new weeklies coming in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, what a nightmare rainfall map for the Tug. Not a nightmare for here. we could use a good gullywasher to get rid of the salt encasement on everything. I picked up a Trace of snow yday IMBY, keeping "the snowpack" to sub 1"...while the new snowbelts of downtown Syracuse probably had 3-4" by my calibrated eyeball at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Not a nightmare for here. we could use a good gullywasher to get rid of the salt encasement on everything. I picked up a Trace of snow yday IMBY, keeping "the snowpack" to sub 1"...while the new snowbelts of downtown Syracuse probably had 3-4" by my calibrated eyeball at work. We got about 2.5 inches in the Bville area. Is it normal for the village to get more than farther north in Lysander? It seems like there has been more there than here often this year. It seems like the NW winds focus it more on Southwestern Onondaga county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Probably a weak or so.before any threat of snow.. Pretty much straight up CF with rain out front and snow behind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Probably the next system that bears watching.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Eh, it'll somehow cut up to Manitoba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Possibly but that's all you got for the next 10 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 It has a nice, large snow shield. Soooo, my call includes 2 options: 1) It cuts up to the Northern Lakes and we Spring again 2) That snow-shield the size of Alaska weakens as it moves east and arrives here the size of Massachusetts. Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Look at all that snow just to our north lol Step down process. Our luck it goes from cutters to 40/70Bm storms lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 ....and then the end of the run. We have this NICE cold dome and then the next Low STILL manages to CUT straight north. ...and the Low after that is so suppressed that Savannah and Northern Florida get the snow. Whew...if it all happened like that, all the subs would be going mad on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'm going to Mont Tremblant next weekend. Would love to see something like this come to fruition. 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Look at all that snow just to our north lol Step down process. Our luck it goes from cutters to 40/70Bm storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Rent out a bus, Delta...because we're all going with you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 U would think this would kick of some lake effect behind the front, which is light-years away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: U would think this would kick of some lake effect behind the front, which is light-years away.. End of gfs has historic lake snow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Nice SW flow event at the end of the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nice SW flow event at the end of the run.. That’s about the only thing that could salvage this winter from being a giant f grade. Winter without December and January isn’t winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 It's so beautiful, brings a tear to my eye. gfs.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's so beautiful, brings a tear to my eye. gfs.mp4 1.34 MB · 0 downloads Nothing there man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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