Syrmax Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: About an inch new in Syracuse this morning from squalls. I’m here for work this week-hopefully there’s some excitement today. I expect bare ground in Jan where I’m from but up here that’s depressing. We had Winter back in November and early Dec. We're ramping up now for the Spring lawn and garden season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Yeah last night's event the European had a cutter, gfs never bought into the phase. I guess it goes Both ways..The internet"experts" definitely think the gfs has been Superior... 500 mb obviously doesn't tell the whole story especially when it comes to sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Gfs also out performed it with 2 different systems that phased in the middle of the country , which was alluded to by the wpc several times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The 12z looks to make things interesting around hour 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think the GFS has out performed the Euro 9 times out of 10 this fall/winter. Surprised to hear you say this. Euro over the last 5 years has a pretty large percentage lead over every other model, nothing really comes close to it. GFS is actually 3rd to the UKIE. This was written in 2016, but GFS was actually in 4th place for awhile. https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/the-us-weather-model-is-now-the-fourth-best-in-the-world/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 HP is 100 miles to far north and Bermuda high a little to strong and stubborn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Brings ice/mix by 00z Sunday and heavy wet snow by 6z over WNY...what is surprising is the High is just about over Lake Superior during that whole time and is 1034 to 1038...that would be cold enough and close enough to change everything over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Yea but this is first year of the "FV3" gfs, which people think has been performing well.. Ukmet has good 500 mb scores too, now go check out it's qpf for each event lol It's like the European NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yea but this is first year of the "FV3" gfs, which people think has been performing well.. Ukmet has good 500 mb scores too, now go check out it's qpf for each event lol It's like the European NAM.. Is it just me or is the NAM getting worse? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: There is that band that I posted last night, just 50 miles too far south. Still picked up an inch overnight. RGEM really good at pinpointing mesos 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 UP is doing well this year with all the cutters. Weatherbos place. SWE is 7", likely in place until June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 esoscale Discussion 0007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2020 Areas affected...much of New York...northeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 081137Z - 081730Z SUMMARY...A few small snow-squalls are expected to persist through the morning hours from northeast Pennsylvania across much of central and eastern New York. DISCUSSION...Extremely cold temperatures aloft continue to overspread the region with -40 C at 500 mb. Meanwhile, surface dewpoints remain in the mid 20s F, with boundary-layer RH otherwise high. With such cold temperatures aloft, lake-induced instability has developed with an occasional lightning flash noted over the past few hours. While surface convergence will not be particularly strong or focused beneath the upper vort, gradually veering and increasing low-level winds will maintain generally weak convergence, possibly aided by any surface lows/waves that develop off of Lake Ontario. Given continued cooling aloft, and possible pockets of surface heating later today, localized squalls of heavy snow may survive or redevelop downstream of Lake Ontario through the morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Models are actually trending in a more interesting direction suddenly. Maybe a Hail Mary? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Montague was getting crushed all morning.. They only have about 2 feet on the ground, not sure how much they came in with.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Models are actually trending in a more interesting direction suddenly. Maybe a Hail Mary? A few years back I remember a winter where something would pop a week out that looked great, only to lose it or it trended away from us during the mid range then as the event came closer it trended back towards the look we originally saw...maybe this will be the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Icon did trend East, more in line with the gfs in terms of track.. Actually gives a little light snow to wny on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 I count 3-4 cutters on GFS over next 12 days. Maybe that last one brings in the cold air behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro over the last 5 years has a pretty large percentage lead over every other model, nothing really comes close to it. GFS is actually 3rd to the UKIE. This was written in 2016, but GFS was actually in 4th place for awhile. https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/the-us-weather-model-is-now-the-fourth-best-in-the-world/ I agree on a longer time frame but the past 3 months I thought the GFS did well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The Canadian is still all rain but it went from a primary in Michigan to NY State.. But it gets to far west initially (Indiana) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Thats some cold air that's inbound, and hangs for about 6hrs, then says Peace, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I think the Cuse gets 2-4" today cause that's my P&C forecast, WWA posted for that amt but its gonna be South of here as it usually is when winds align out of the NW!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wicked little squall moving through right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wayne county's the place to be for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2” so far in Irondequoit. Not bad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 SYRACUSE coming in strong on some of the short term models. Near 4”. Take it and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: SYRACUSE coming in strong on some of the short term models. Near 4”. Take it and run! 4" for the month of January? Explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Pretty much! Lol next 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: HP is 100 miles to far north and Bermuda high a little to strong and stubborn lol but I have it on good authority (25 years of reading assinine internet climate and meteorology-related posts) that the cold pressing arctic HP always wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Surprised KBGM hasn't placed a SSW for the Cuse area cause that area moving towards them looks like it means business but who reallly knows. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 My bad, I hadn't checked, lol, there are several adv's posted!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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