CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 What storms? We had one in Nov, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Have you guys seen what is happening over in Australia? 500 million animals have been killed so far. 12 million acres of land... DId you see where there have been up to something like 200 arrests for arson related to the fires? Talk about crazy. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/dozens-of-firebugs-blamed-for-destructive-queensland-fires-20191220-p53m1i.html https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-22/bushfire-arson-warning-ahead-of-school-holidays/11528192 Dr Paul Read, co-director of the National Centre for Research in Bushfire and Arson, said the great majority of bushfires are deliberately lit by "cunning, furtive and versatile criminals". "About 85 per cent are related to human activity, 13 per cent confirmed arson and 37 per cent suspected arson," he said. "The remainder are usually due to reckless fire lighting or even just children playing with fire." Dr Read said holidays and summer were a bad combination when it came to fire starters. "School holidays are a prime time for fire bugs, but especially over summer," he said. "The kids have got time to get out there and light, and the most dangerous adults choose hot days." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro gives roc .75 of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, Syrmax said: DId you see where there have been up to something like 200 arrests for arson related to the fires? Talk about crazy. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/dozens-of-firebugs-blamed-for-destructive-queensland-fires-20191220-p53m1i.html https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-22/bushfire-arson-warning-ahead-of-school-holidays/11528192 Dr Paul Read, co-director of the National Centre for Research in Bushfire and Arson, said the great majority of bushfires are deliberately lit by "cunning, furtive and versatile criminals". "About 85 per cent are related to human activity, 13 per cent confirmed arson and 37 per cent suspected arson," he said. "The remainder are usually due to reckless fire lighting or even just children playing with fire." Dr Read said holidays and summer were a bad combination when it came to fire starters. "School holidays are a prime time for fire bugs, but especially over summer," he said. "The kids have got time to get out there and light, and the most dangerous adults choose hot days." How do you know that is true? How do they come up with these percentages? I don't buy it. The government is becomingly increasingly corrupt over there. They are doing nothing to protect the Great Barrier Reef and even less to combat the fires. They view profits over helping mitigate climate change. The identical thing is happening here with the election of trump and leaving the Paris climate accord. He thinks climate change is "fake news". 10 billion dollar drilling plants are being set-up in Pennsylvania and elsewhere around the country, including Alaska. Once sacred land up there is being excavated for drilling...Same thing with the corrupt government in Brazil with lax restrictions on conversation in the amazon is leading to land being taking apart for cattle ranchers, wood, etc...I'm in the process of going vegan to help the effort a little bit. I actually have a trip planned to go to Australia and New Zealand in April but may have to cancel the Australia part. Even then NZ is currently a giant smoke cloud. Who knows if it will clear up by then as peak fire season is Jan/Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The pics of the injured, scared Koalas just kill me. I’m not prone to hysteria but part of me thinks the earth might be completely fu..ed. Saw a satellite time lapse of arctic sea ice since 1980 and it’s almost gone. A real eye opener. Tell me that won’t have catastrophic effects upon our weather... Humans are a plague. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: The pics of the injured, scared Koalas just kill me. I’m not prone to hysteria but part of me thinks the earth might be completely fu..ed. Saw a satellite time lapse of arctic sea ice since 1980 and it’s almost gone. A real eye opener. Tell me that won’t have catastrophic effects upon our weather... Humans are a plague. ...and we are the cure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: How do you know that is true? How do they come up with these percentages? I don't buy it. The government is becomingly increasingly corrupt over there. They are doing nothing to protect the Great Barrier Reef and even less to combat the fires. They view profits over helping mitigate climate change. The identical thing is happening here with the election of trump and leaving the Paris climate accord. He thinks climate change is "fake news". 10 billion dollar drilling plants are being set-up in Pennsylvania and elsewhere around the country, including Alaska. Once sacred land up there is being excavated for drilling...Same thing with the corrupt government in Brazil with lax restrictions on conversation in the amazon is leading to land being taking apart for cattle ranchers, wood, etc...I'm in the process of going vegan to help the effort a little bit. I actually have a trip planned to go to Australia and New Zealand in April but may have to cancel the Australia part. Even then NZ is currently a giant smoke cloud. Who knows if it will clear up by then as peak fire season is Jan/Feb. Whatevs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 So, by my count the 12Z op GFS has 5 of next 6 systems either cutting west of us or running right over the top. One of them looks like it may not, out at 198 / 204 hrs but it looks funky with slp. It does get cold after each one so it would be curious to see how Jan avg temps end up along w/ snowfall. Could be a strange combination if that were to play out. (Edit: Not counting this midweek system which is a miss synoptically, per GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 The top analog for this weekends system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Everyone of the top analogs have big time freezing rain accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I just like to point out how much the 3k Nam sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Rgem drops the band south about 7 pm.. Even shows freak some love overnight..As of right now I have 2.2" since last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Not much change with the gfs, a little south and closer to a snow storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much change with the gfs, a little south and closer to a snow storm lol That scenario is getting closer to better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Lake starting to fire up some.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Obviously this would be problematic for snow. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Nice and healthy band coming ur way Wolfie. Their seems to be lots of graupel within some of these heavier squalls but probably not up there by you! Its definitely snowing 1-2"/he in that band for sure!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm actually right under the bright banding lol Mix of heavy snow and graupel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lake starting to fire up some.. Lake has been dumping all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Freezing rain event is not predictable this far out. Too many nuances with the levels. If I had to guess, I’d figure the LP goes right for us. sleet to rain. Snow looks to be a tough buy. There’s gonna be a thin slice of heavy snow but it’s gonna be super compressed. Same with frz rain. Sleet could be the biggest precip, in terms of geographical coverage. What’s the trend been for storms? Certainly not colder. I’d follow the trend. Bing is dreaming. They gonna flood. LolNothing is predictable past 3 days, and its simple as that and I dont care what anyone says. Past 3 days, pretty much anything can occur so a system that's in our view, from 6 days away can literally disappear from guidance then reappear. Ice and sleet are literally frozen types of precip that are almost impossible to predict during an event, nevermind a week out. Like we all mentioned already, its gonna come down to where that HP heads and how fast. If it slows up and it heads to the SE then suppression would seem most likely with that scenario. If the HP starts to haul ass and out runs the System, then expect a super monsoon/deluge as the return flow from the ATL and all the Gulf Moisture will literally drown us so if ur Sump Pumps not working properly you better get it fixed before next weekend. They pretty much need to move in tandem all the while supplying cold low level air, but that won't do, as we need the H850 and the H700 to also cooperate, donuts a really delicate situation. Its definitely a threading the needle situation. Man I'd love to be in either Toronto or Montreal and even Ottawa cause one or 2 of them is gonna be buried when all is said and done, lol. If it goes further West, then everyone rains, but this scenario I don't see happening so we wait for the next 20 runs, lol!I will say this though: if 3 of our major Globals are in great agreement with each other, and remain so the next several runs going into Wednesday and Thursday, then we're toast. Any other Winter we'd be rejoicing to the high heavens to see a low emerge from the 4 corners and hook NE and redevelop off the Delmarva. I dont even think this redevelops, does it? Doesn't matter anyway as its days and days away but it will matter soon enough, cause weeks are flying by, and super fast too.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Dropped almost 4° in 5 min under this band lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm actually right under the bright banding lol Mix of heavy snow and graupel.. Wolfie how far are you from BREIA (Egypt Road trails)? Curious if conditions will be good there tomorrow. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I had to Google it haha I have a similar latitude as Booneville (little north) but they are 50 miles east of here and have some elevation. Kbgm has about 1/2' in that area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Pretty much a white out atm, down to 28.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 New band developing, could be just to my North, we'll see soon enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I had to Google it haha I have a similar latitude as Booneville (little north) but they are 50 miles east of here and have some elevation. Kbgm has about 1/2' in that area.. thanks, didn't realize you are that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 52 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Nothing is predictable past 3 days, and its simple as that and I dont care what anyone says. Past 3 days, pretty much anything can occur so a system that's in our view, from 6 days away can literally disappear from guidance then reappear. Ice and sleet are literally frozen types of precip that are almost impossible to predict during an event, nevermind a week out. Like we all mentioned already, its gonna come down to where that HP heads and how fast. If it slows up and it heads to the SE then suppression would seem most likely with that scenario. If the HP starts to haul ass and out runs the System, then expect a super monsoon/deluge as the return flow from the ATL and all the Gulf Moisture will literally drown us so if ur Sump Pumps not working properly you better get it fixed before next weekend. They pretty much need to move in tandem all the while supplying cold low level air, but that won't do, as we need the H850 and the H700 to also cooperate, donuts a really delicate situation. Its definitely a threading the needle situation. Man I'd love to be in either Toronto or Montreal and even Ottawa cause one or 2 of them is gonna be buried when all is said and done, lol. If it goes further West, then everyone rains, but this scenario I don't see happening so we wait for the next 20 runs, lol! I will say this though: if 3 of our major Globals are in great agreement with each other, and remain so the next several runs going into Wednesday and Thursday, then we're toast. Any other Winter we'd be rejoicing to the high heavens to see a low emerge from the 4 corners and hook NE and redevelop off the Delmarva. I dont even think this redevelops, does it? Doesn't matter anyway as its days and days away but it will matter soon enough, cause weeks are flying by, and super fast too. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Snow Ridge getting slammed https://snowridge.com/live-feed/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3.2" on the day here, that's between several bouts of snow squalls, nothing sustained.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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