BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Picked up 3.1" last night. Decent little event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Here was the gfs for kfzy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here was the gfs for kfzy.. Insane amount of gulf moisture. Analogs show the signal too. It just started showing up, so will be interesting to see what next few days look like in modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Buffalo: Attention turns to the next system that will ride along the cold front near western and north central NY. Strong, southwest flow will supply abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture into the eastern third of the Lower 48. Ensemble forecast systems are showing signals of PWATS of +2 SD above normal Friday to Saturday. Guidance is similar in tracking the deepening low along the cold front from the Central Appalachians to Long Island. While this can keep us on the cold, snowy side, the 850mb low may be further to the northwest. This may bring enough warmer air aloft into the region causing a wintry mix Saturday to Saturday night. A dry, cold will likely move into the region behind this system with little lake response expected. Binghamton: The low pressure system passing by well to the north then drags a cold front into the region later Friday. This then becomes a stationary boundary...with a large temperature gradient developing. Significant model differences remain for the weekend...but guidance does agree on some points. The overall set up is there for strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This could lead to 1-2+ inches of QPF across the region. However, there will also be an arctic Canadian high pressure center north of Lake Superior and into Quebec. This will try to push low level cold air down into the region at the same time; along and north of the stationary boundary. Depending on the exact low track (west, right over us or southeast of here) will have huge implications for what types of weather we see this weekend. These exact details are yet to be resolved...but it`s beginning to look like parts of the area could see impacts...whether it`s from ice, snow, heavy rains (or a combination of the three) remains to be seen. Overall, with such a strong high pressure center north, one would expect the system to perhaps shift a little further south; bringing more of wintry mix to the area. Please be sure to check back as will continue to monitor and update forecasts for the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Insane amount of gulf moisture. Analogs show the signal too. It just started showing up, so will be interesting to see what next few days look like in modeling. Thats a lot of precip from 18z Saturday to 9z Sunday and much if that is frozen in one form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Kbgm The flow turns west, then west northwest on Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region. The cold air mass arriving later on Wednesday will allow morning lows in the 20s to not warm up too much by the afternoon. The re-enforcing air mass will keep highs on Wednesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A persistent w/nwly flow behind the upper low exiting to the northeast will create favorable conditions for lake effect snow through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures -14 to -18 deg C...a deep 10k ft mixed layer...modest low level instability and limited shear in the BL should all be favorable for lake effect snow bands into Central NY through the overnight hours. Outside of the more persistent snow bands there is also the potential for snow showers...and some could be briefly heavy. Several more inches of snow is possible in a short period of time Wed afternoon/evening. As temperatures cool snow to liquid ratios increase rapidly to between 15-20:1 or greater 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Ripping out right now .. Briefly made it to 34°, back down to 32.8° Huge wet flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Thats a lot of precip from 18z Saturday to 9z Sunday and much if that is frozen in one form or another. Yeah, it has huge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Gefs with members.. I imagine plenty of rainers in there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs with members.. I imagine plenty of rainers in there.. The LP looks to be western PA...on that VERY early placement the Niagara Frontier would get smoked and Syracuse would be a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 hours ago, tim123 said: Weekend systems has me really interested. Could be a high impact event. Somethings gotta give with this pattern. Yup, Thats an incredible amount of precip. And just for shits, here is the GFS frozen output map. You don't see numbers like that often. Even dividing them by 2 still yields impressive totals. Lets see if it can hold for more than 1 run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Been 2 runs. Since last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Been 2 runs. Since last night There’s still 5 days to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It's all about that Canadian high...if it's strong and above superior we get a huge ice storm or snow storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12Z GFS coming in warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: 12Z GFS coming in warmer. Not much, 15-20 miles. pretty much same track. Massive Ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Yeah, changeover early Saturday afternoon.. We will start as rain no matter what, it's a question on how fast the cold comes in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Nasty ice storm. On this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 15-20 miles can make a huge difference in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm actually more worried about suppression than amped. That high is gathering strength and moving south quickly. I think we see a regression to more suppressed in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, CNY_WX said: 15-20 miles can make a huge difference in this setup. It's 4-5 days out, we will see many 15-20 mile jumps in next few days. Either way finally something exciting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 This is exactly what I was talking about the other day. Storms can appear out of nowhere. Screw the long term. We have a real winter storm to track in the medium (almost short) range. Crazy how that can happen. Obviously, I’m hoping for snow but you can’t discount the possibility of sleet, the least consequential of all precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: It's 4-5 days out, we will see many 15-20 mile jumps in next few days. Either way finally something exciting to track. Exactly, it’s time to lay back, watch the models and not get too excited until Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'd rather bump those south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 These are the types of storms I don’t miss from growing up and living in NJ. They can be so damaging and annoying (power issues). Thought I escaped them moving up here! I hate ice! That said - will be excited to track along with y’all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Had a bad bad ice storm in 91 here. I.5 inches of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now