BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: +12 for the month at BUF thru yesterday with nothing but + departures in sight. I’ll set the January over/under line at +10... I think it's going to be double digits. Our overnight lows have been really warm. Our average low is supposed to be in the teens, we aren't seeing that for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Flipping to snow in Pulaski, big fatties.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Wasted 0.08" liquid on rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 Matched up pretty well with the top analog, snowing here but 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think it's going to be double digits. Our overnight lows have been really warm. Our average low is supposed to be in the teens, we aren't seeing that for awhile. I've been following some of the guys on the mid Atlantic site and other Mets who believe that there is a Scandinavia Ridge by day 10 which will begin to perturb and shift the PV into Hudson Bay in the next 15 days...that matches up very well with all three ensembles for that timeframe...keep the faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Picked up a sloppy inch here and temps were actually 31.8 in my backyard so accumulation wasn’t an issue. I’ll take what I can get. We’ll tack on some lake effect snow showers tonight, another inch or so tomorrow night then maybe another couple inches tues into Wednesday. With the pattern we are in this is a miracle little 5 day stretch of winter before the parade of rain storms move in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 We could still manage some lake effect even if we have a late phase which is exactly what the European shows.. Small window but it would be better than nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I've been following some of the guys on the mid Atlantic site and other Mets who believe that there is a Scandinavia Ridge by day 10 which will begin to perturb and shift the PV into Hudson Bay in the next 15 days...that matches up very well with all three ensembles for that timeframe...keep the faith I can see that but nothing until around the 20th at least. Similar to last year? We're going to have a 40 degree lake in late January. Looks like last year the pattern changed mid month around the 15th and we had that big storm Jan 19th/20th and the 2 big LES events in Late Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Snow starting to stick on the colder surface as temps slowly drop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Wind direction is 306° which is pretty cool to be able to see lol That's a NW wind if u need to know haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Huge flakes mixing in here now. Temperature is still at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Ripping here atm, unfortunately won't be lasting much longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Be interesting to see if the NAM has a clue (probably not) radar starts to "backfill" as the systems phase off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Be interesting to see if the NAM has a clue (probably not) radar starts to "backfill" as the systems phase off the coast.. Trying o decide to go to old forge for some riding. This will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Perhaps there will be a "Syracuse special" where we can get a couple inches of lake effect/enhanced snows this weekend. Just had some gigantic snowflakes coming down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: A dusting that is already gone here. Overnight runs look terrible for the next 10 days. Going to need some serious reshuffling to get anything that resembles winter. We need a SSW event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Best chance for NW flow is this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Kbgm A more wintry and somewhat active period expected, with near average temperatures. QPF amounts should be between 0.05-0.20" for much of the area, and with snow to liquid ratios around 10-15:1 we are forecasting a general 1-2 inches of snow overnight. South-southwest winds 8-15 mph could cause localized blowing snow at times as low temperatures dip into the 20s. A steadier area or band of lake effect snow is also possible across portions of Oneida county on a 270 degree boundary layer flow. Could see an additional 1-3 inches of snow up here through the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can see that but nothing until around the 20th at least. Similar to last year? We're going to have a 40 degree lake in late January. Looks like last year the pattern changed mid month around the 15th and we had that big storm Jan 19th/20th and the 2 big LES events in Late Jan. So yes similar. And in that timeframe we received 65" not saying it will all line up exactly but that 2 weeks of January also saved us. You just said it, 40 degree lake will serve for many opportunities IF the cold air comes and stays.. It also would be about 5 weeks this pattern would be in place and usually they last 4to 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 True winter will hit for one week. February 16th to the 23rd when I am in Florida for "winter" break. Mark it down, weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Not going to happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I'm talking about the phase not the gfs OP run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2014-15 will be tough to beat. I think I had 45-50" that season and we are already around 30". Calls for a "new normal" seem overwrought based on a lousy, and ill timed, three week period.I doubt that as we'll hit normal for sure but it may take till the end of April to get there, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 This is the primary driver right now with basically neutral Enso conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Temps here have actually gone up lol Probably due to the light precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I don't see any change for at least 2 weeks, probably more. I've seen these indices change on a dime so I don't think their all that reliable especially as one goes further out in time so we'll see how they fare.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 MJO is WEAK sauce right now and its forecasted to get quite strong the next week or so, in the warmer phases and that too can change but with it being that strong, I doubt it heads to 8-1-or 2 anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Whatever snow we get this week will be washed away by the Springtime monsoons the 12Z runs are showing for next weekend. Aye carumba! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Canadian phases off the coast of maine which seems to be the going trend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 03 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 18 2020-Fri Jan 31 2020 The global tropical convective pattern remains weak, with ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing, an incoherent MJO signal, and a decaying Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Therefore, little contribution from the tropics to the downstream midlatitude pattern during the Week 3-4 period is evident in the statistical guidance. Dynamical models almost uniformly favor renewed MJO activity, however, with the enhanced phase crossing the Maritime Continent over the next two weeks at a high amplitude on the RMM-based MJO index. The weakening IOD signal effecting a change in the base state may partly explain the forecasted high amplitude signal, but should a robust MJO event develop and propagate to the Pacific, it could help promote a substantial late winter pattern change over North America. These impacts would occur largely after the Week 3-4 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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