wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Southerly breeze really kicking in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 23 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm sorry but theres Nothing worse than rain, with temps in the low 30's in late December? When I first moved here in 2002-03 season, the best in my life to date, right after Thanksgiving we'd get our hybrid storm then a bout of LE then Fall would resume till right after Christmas, but that particular yr it snowed 11" in Syracuse, my first true White Christmas, and it was truly magical but it seems like since we hit the 2010's everything has gone to straight shit, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I hear this sentiment so much. Peoples memories really want to remember things for the best (or at least different than reality). The old timers always talk about the crazy winters we had in the 40's, 50's and 60's, however there is just no data to back it up. I think a lot of it has to do with how well we can handle snow now and predict snow these days compared to back then. A typical well forecasted storm now might have been crippling 50 years ago if it hit at the wrong time and couldn't be cleaned up well. I know that there are a lot of subtleties that I'm glazing over, but there just isn't historic data to back up the idea that winters used to be MUCH colder and snowier. That said, there appears to be a small downward trend in snow amounts over the past 20 years (which I would be willing to bet has something to do with Anthropogenic Global Warming), but its barely statistically significant. Furthermore, if you graph snow totals in the ROC since 1940 you'll actually see our yearly snowfall average trending upwards (however this is somewhat skewed by very low numbers in the 40s). Anyway, there is a lot of data to digest out there, but not much points to winters being weaker now than they used to. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 One last interesting thing to note while I'm wasting my lunch graphing things is the fairly cyclic pattern that ROC has had since 2010. Looks like we have about a 4 to 5 year frequency oscillating between big years and weak years. If that pattern holds true, we are currently heading into a couple of crap seasons (which as of right now, seems at least plausible) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Wow, that's almost a decrease of 20 inches on average over the past 2 decades for Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 The 2000s winters in Buffalo are the best in their history. They averaged 105.78" good stuff delta I'll break it down by decade later . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, that's almost a decrease of 20 inches on average over the past 2 decades for Rochester. Be careful, thats just a trend line that isnt taking the average snowfall! It's starting at the amount for that first year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Be careful, thats just a trend line that isnt taking the average snowfall! It's starting at the amount for that first year. Yeah, I thought about that after I posted it. Interesting stats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The Euro looks like a mangled piece of crap for this weekend. Weak precip., ptype issues, etc... Looks like the events of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Yup, weak sauce lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Though it is hard to trust a model that looked like this last run.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Though it is hard to trust a model that looked like this last run.. Yeah the euro seems like it partied with cousin Eddie and also has a plastic plate in its head... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 CMC came in strong. Finger lakes look good for a few inches- if that. This pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: CMC came in strong. Finger lakes look good for a few inches- if that. This pattern... 2, 3, 4 or 5 inches is better than the grass and mud I have all over my damn house right now due to this God awful pattern...ill take the lake effect opportunity mon thru Wed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Overall the euro looked pretty good.. Synoptic potential the 4th-5th, 7th, 11th with lake effect in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: 2, 3, 4 or 5 inches is better than the grass and mud I have all over my damn house right now due to this God awful pattern...ill take the lake effect opportunity mon thru Wed agreed, 1.8" sounds like heaven after these past few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Overall the euro looked pretty good.. Synoptic potential the 4th-5th, 7th, 11th with lake effect in between. I can’t help but notice the torch and rain on day 9. Things can change but it’s a repeating scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: One last interesting thing to note while I'm wasting my lunch graphing things is the fairly cyclic pattern that ROC has had since 2010. Looks like we have about a 4 to 5 year frequency oscillating between big years and weak years. If that pattern holds true, we are currently heading into a couple of crap seasons (which as of right now, seems at least plausible) I'm wondering if the oscillations are aligned to blocking/ENSO/MJO 'patterns'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Burlington Vt NWS just posted this depressing graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 It can still snow in this pattern. Synoptic stuff is possible. Won’t have much staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The ensembles already show that western trough moving east at the end of that time frame, ala last year almost to a T. More concerning is the NWS just basically stated in their AFD that it will primarily rain Saturday and not switch over until late evening to over night...which model actually shows that scenario I ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: I can’t help but notice the torch and rain on day 9. Things can change but it’s a repeating scenario. Bro that's a CF that u get a shower from, it also sets up a snowstorm..The min u guys see green u freak out lol Would everyone rather have 40/70 Bm storms lol We live in the interior, we need systems to run inland, it's always a fine line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 It comes down to the phasing or lack thereof.. Southern stream energy out paces northern stream until offshore..U get a progressive wave that quickly scoots off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 This is what happens when u get a quicker/cleaner phase.. I wouldn't worry to much about p-type on the icon lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Interestingly enough the same position the navy has it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Yeah those are great points wolfie. Just wondering what they are seeing that they call for precip type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The preference is to be between the 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF but with a slightly westward track of their surface lows given ensemble mean placement. Due to poor ensemble agreement and poor run to run consistency in the guidance, confidence is below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: The preference is to be between the 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF but with a slightly westward track of their surface lows given ensemble mean placement. Due to poor ensemble agreement and poor run to run consistency in the guidance, confidence is below average. So we're within 48 hours and low confidence... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Gefs are just as perplexed as you lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Thanks Wolfie for the pivotal maps. I need to use those and not the limited ttb maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Stronger more consolidated northern stream on the rgem compared to the NAM products.. Winds up 996mb over philly at hr 54.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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