BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Can't believes it's 2020 tomorrow. Buffalo is 2.4 degrees above normal for the date as of the 30th. We are also -7.1 inches for snowfall. Shockingly we're actually 1/2" ahead of last year for total snowfall to date. We look to get some lake enhanced/les tomorrow into weds morning. We then look to experience a period of colder weather Jan 5-9 where we have a few chances of some snow. Models start to diverge towards the middle of the month. Morning runs look pretty conclusive on a very warm pattern shaping up. Tonight's runs look less like that. There will still be quite a few cutters the next few weeks but if we can ride the gradient right the NE seems like it should do okay in this type of pattern. As the case has been all year the models and even ENS have been terrible beyond a week so take everything with a grain of salt. CIPS analogs look slightly above normal in long range extended. Hope everyone has a great new year and go bills! Indices don't look the greatest but we may get some help from the EPO. AO seems to be going down which would help too Potential around the 7-9th for a clipper/miller B Jan 10-15th look quite warm right now, but that's too far out to get into specifics with the current up and down modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Finished with 0.83" liquid and a dusting of snow overnight, down to 33.1°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 We got a dusting here this morning that has already melted. Here's to hoping this lil bit of LES over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Moderate to heavy lake snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region, and particularly in the vicinity of the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Looks good wolf. Looks like I will be on the northern edge of the snow tonight as it focuses on far southern erie county. In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave (mid level energy)... the steering flow during the first half of tonight will become westerly. As the cold air in the cyclonic flow deepens...increasing instability over the relatively warm lakes (near 40 open waters of Lk Erie and mid 40s open waters of eastern Lk Ontario) will activate the lake snow machines which have been dormant for the past few weeks. Moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow will then become focused over much of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill plateau. Supporting the snowfall will be adequate instability...a reasonably long fetch (esp. Lk Ont)...and a well aligned steering flow. On the other hand...snowfall will be held back somewhat from the cap being in the vcnty of 10k ft. That being said...the mixed phase layer will certainly be deep enough with a -10c isotherm around 3k ft to support at least the potential for electrification for sites east of Lk Ontario. Have thus added the chance for thunder/lightning. The Tug Hill is usually the focus for any lightning. Boiling this all down...forecast snowfall amounts tonight will range from 3 to 5 inches east of Lake Erie (focus on the Chautauqua ridge) with snowfall rates of a half to one inch...to 5 to 9 inches accumulation on the Tug with snowfall rates of one to two inches. Brief periods of three inch rates for the latter cannot be ruled out. Outside of these lake snow areas...amounts will generally be under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Still some debate with the exact placement and wind direction.. American guidance has more of a Westerly flow while Canadian guidance likes more of a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Thanks BW.. Main concern here as usual is the wind, right now the NWS has 10-15mph sustained winds which aren't too bad... Looking at the P&C forecast, you go from 2"-5" in Pulaski to 7"-15" in Redfield.. Forecast here is 5"-9"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 We ended up with about 1.30" rain for this system, which was accompanied by not much wind but enough to make high 30s to low 40s feel pretty miserable. Reminds me of weather in north germany and holland / UK. Just utter shite. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Seeing some nice lake enhancement with the precip blob over Southern Ontario. Actually a pretty good line firing up heading into Niagara County right now. Think this is going to be our only way to see any snow here today is to hope for some bursts like that to work through.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Lots of excitement on weather twitter regarding a Greenland block and a day 7 storm. So far, the shite pattern has shown remarkable holding power, I’m not ready to believe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Seeing some nice lake enhancement with the precip blob over Southern Ontario. Actually a pretty good line firing up heading into Niagara County right now. Think this is going to be our only way to see any snow here today is to hope for some bursts like that to work through... . Must be quite a bit of virga going on in the leading edge of the precip shield as its neither raining or snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Temps slowly rising ahead of the front..Had a low of 32°, now up to 34.3°... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Buffalo NY1001 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019...BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW VISIBILITY EXPECTEDTHIS AFTERNOON...A burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected by early thisafternoon over western New York and by mid to late afternoonacross the Genesee valley. Expect sharply reduced visibilitybelow a half mile during heavier snow showers, along with windgusts over 30 mph. The worst conditions are expected over theNiagara Frontier and western Southern Tier, including the Buffalometro, between 11 AM and 2 PM, then over the Genesee valley,including the Rochester metro, between 1 PM and 4 PM.It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed latertoday in some areas as this snow moves through. Expect the snowto transition to lake effect snow showers by early this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1001 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 ...BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... A burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected by early this afternoon over western New York and by mid to late afternoon across the Genesee valley. Expect sharply reduced visibility below a half mile during heavier snow showers, along with wind gusts over 30 mph. The worst conditions are expected over the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier, including the Buffalo metro, between 11 AM and 2 PM, then over the Genesee valley, including the Rochester metro, between 1 PM and 4 PM. It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed later today in some areas as this snow moves through. Expect the snow to transition to lake effect snow showers by early this evening. . At the current 37 to 38 degrees I doubt that's all snow when it rolls through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 The next system may not be as much of a cutter as previously thought, icon and gfs flirting with some secondary development.. Rain to snow on the latest icon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 At the current 37 to 38 degrees I doubt that's all snow when it rolls throughUPDATE: Transition to a lake effect event occurs this afternoon as 2-3 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area.Based on upstream observations in northern Ohio and the NiagaraPeninsula in Ontario and latest hi-res guidance including the HRRRwhich has good handle on upstream trends, visibility could drop toless than one-half mile in heavier snow and winds may gust 30-40 mphas the snow moves through along track of shortwave rotating aroundparent upper low over the Upper Great Lakes.With short duration expected to the snow, going to handle thiswith Special Weather Statements and possibly Snow SquallWarnings if conditions warrant. Based on the guidance, seemsbest chance of needing Snow Squall Warnings will be from theGenesee valley eastward by late aftn, but will continue tomonitor radar trends. Main takeaways from this initial burst ofsnow this afternoon is brief poor travel due to mainly low vsbyand gusty winds. Also even with marginal temps in the lower 30sfor snow accumulation there is some potential for quick snowaccum on untreated roads. Already saw narrow band of snowsliding across Niagara county currently produce some snow onroads btwn St. Catherines and Niagara Falls an hour ago even astemps there were in the 34-36F range.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6z gfs went right over us, flipping us to some light snow.. U can see some confluence to the north, hopefully that trends stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 12 z Gfs is trying to slip east. Not there yet, but trends are slightly less cutty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Canadian does as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Moderate to almost heavy snow in Hamburg, sticking Quite the difference in blasdell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 It’s a mix up here near the Buffalo/Snyder/Cleveland Hill line. Accumulating a little bit, though. I think this will show as a trace, unless the airport gets a bigger burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 What a joke. 30 seconds of pingers... 30 seconds of heavy big fat flakes... and back to flurries. I was determined to not lay a goose egg on this one so I stood there for a good five minutes until a flake fell perfectly against my ruler. 0.1”... 2 second rule before melting still counts right? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, WNash said: It’s a mix up here near the Buffalo/Snyder/Cleveland Hill line. Accumulating a little bit, though. I think this will show as a trace, unless the airport gets a bigger burst. Snowing and sticking decently in Williamsville ground has a light wire slushy coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Watching as the precip down slopes into the Gennessee Valley and dries up. The front should hold together for a short burst in Rochester but then we done. I’m just grateful that most of the puddles drained- I wasn’t t looking forward to that much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Hasn't stopped snowing here. Still extremely wet, but sticking still. Big difference between Blasdell and here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: Oh boy! Everyone's phone just lit up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Euro has big storm day 8, like the rest of guidance.. Goes right over the area, heavy snow-rain and back to heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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