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NYE Mess Obs


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5 hours ago, Professional Lurker said:

Just got home from the restaurant. The road are a wreck.

Thunderstorm? Crazy! We had several very close strikes down by the greenfield rotary. Saw a few firetrucks head over to Bjs. Pretty sure the restaurant itself or the immediate area got stuck twice. Both times the entire computer system went down due to surges. Had several outlets in the kitchen throw sparks. My cooks freaked out, lol. Lost the ability to process credit cards for a few hours, which sucked. Between that and the water main break outside the store on Saturday night, I've had a few unlucky shifts at work. ... it's times like this when being the guy in charge isn't fun.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

Yikes, man I don't miss those days. 

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At 7 we'd had 3.5" from 0.46" LE, tiny flakes at mid 20s for a 7.6-to-one ratio.  Only need another half inch plus to make it the season's biggest event so far.  The good bands seem to fall apart as they move north from Androscoggin County to Franklin, though maybe that's due to increasing miles from GYX.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Really good growth right now below the beam.

Over 4 yet?  My Friday forecast. As usual my southern extent was too high.

 Brian 4 to 8 Gene to Jeffafafa 8 to 12 then Hunchie Ray 3 to 6 Hippy to ORH 2 to 4 with sleet ice snow. Jerry  Boston South of Pike to 84 1 to 3, a period of snow sleet ice south of that maybe an inch with NCT Mass border 2 with maybe .2 ice

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44 minutes ago, White Rain said:

30.9, Everything glazed over still. We were 28.4 at midnight. 

568E68F4-E52D-49F3-9522-79044FB8DECE.thumb.jpeg.5307087bc4dc872d700c5e60ed27d1cc.jpeg

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer.

Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening.  We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting.  We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep re thunder in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event. Nonetheless, flash-boom-ba, with very large sleet pellets - probably stuck together... We then settled back into moderate sleet and ZR, in a fog of pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over here was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable.  It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer.

Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening.  We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting.  We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event, but flash-boom-ba, with heavy fall rates... We then had moderate sleet and ZR and pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over hear was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable.  It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

Ditto, tough we never dipped below 30*.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer.

Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all.  That aspect was having difficulty taking place.  We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day yesterday and then last night go interesting.  We had a couple of thunderstorm - of all things ... Nary a peep in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event, but flash-boom-ba, with heavy fall rates... We then had moderate sleet and ZR and pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over hear was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable.  It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

Yeah the sfc cold drain finally happened in more earnest late yesterday into the evening when model guidance said temps should have been rising. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the sfc cold drain finally happened in more earnest late yesterday into the evening when model guidance said temps should have been rising. 

Lol, message received loud and clear... That was the one thing we danced around before this thing, and that is that the models would f that up one way or the other. 

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6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

3.8" total. A little glazing, but the trees are caked with snow from the wetter stuff yesterday during the day

Really an impressive melange event.   Our glaze is the 'gray' type, because it's 90/10 water and pixie crystals mixed, which just means there a bit of air trapped in the ice.  

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the sfc cold drain finally happened in more earnest late yesterday into the evening when model guidance said temps should have been rising. 

I looked back at mos and it was by far the best in the MHT-ASH corridor. Far better than 2mt. I guess it should be, but it was more pronounced than most events. 

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11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I looked back at mos and it was by far the best in the MHT-ASH corridor. Far better than 2mt. I guess it should be, but it was more pronounced than most events. 

Yeah, Will and I were musing about the cold thrust possibilities... We figured - climo and experience - that the models wouldn't really see that discrete of a detailed behavior because it is still outside their resolution wheel-house.  Something about the planetary/atmospheric interface ... the geo-physics are missing? It needs furthering science and evolution, because it's an area of modeling that as far as I can tell, is invisible to them.  So, they set up but don't do the push, or that tornado ... you know?  ... But it's up to human interpretation and experience to then modulate/fill in for those disadvantages. The art is not going overboard with buns and ketchup, heh 

And to your point, .. MOS is a climate sloped product as we know, so it performing better intuitively fits there.

 

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11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I looked back at mos and it was by far the best in the MHT-ASH corridor. Far better than 2mt. I guess it should be, but it was more pronounced than most events. 

Guidance was really bad with furnacing to Winni last night. It actually warmed a bit inside 495 up to Ray, but the drain was certainly in the interior. I thought we did well calling that out. 

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