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NYE Mess Obs


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21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

temps in most of SNE behaving exactly as meso's have been showing for a day

The cold push wasn't under modeled , it was pretty dang correctly modeled as i have been watching nearly every run waiting for it to "catch on" 

Yeah overall pretty good. Had Kevin right on the line. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen a stronger tug at the sfc up near Ray and into the ASH-FIT corridor....you almost ALWAYS see this undermodeled with a stubborn/building high to the north....but it seems this is one of the few times that we haven't had that happen.

 

It's almost like the secondary got squashed too far south to help turn the winds more NE.

Boire field has dipped down to 30F and you go ENE from there and that's the 30 isotherm. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen a stronger tug at the sfc up near Ray and into the ASH-FIT corridor....you almost ALWAYS see this undermodeled with a stubborn/building high to the north....but it seems this is one of the few times that we haven't had that happen.

 

It's almost like the secondary got squashed too far south to help turn the winds more NE.

MWN winds are nearly prefect to max CAD and set up the drain down the terrain. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

We didn't give you one December 2-3?

We were under a Watch, but I think that morphed into a WWA.  My 2.8" would've been at the edge of Advisory criteria but a major bust for a Warning.  :lol:

Aaaand...The NE-ward progress of the snow shield comes to a staggering halt, thanks to rh in the 60s.  The airport was reporting mixed precip at noon, but I've not seen anything here east of the Kennebec.

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Just now, tamarack said:

We were under a Watch, but I think that morphed into a WWA.  My 2.8" would've been at the edge of Advisory criteria but a major bust for a Warning.  :lol:

Aaaand...The NE-ward progress of the snow shield comes to a staggering halt, thanks to rh in the 60s.  The airport was reporting mixed precip at noon, but I've not seen anything here east of the Kennebec.

My guess is AUG had very light snow which tricked the ASOS into thinking it was UP. That's a pretty common ASOS error.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

when does the cold layer go bye bye and we most go to Regular rain south of MHT......mid pm/late pm?

I’m not sold on that. I’m not sure that it goes above 32 near MHT. Maybe closer to MA border? I could be wrong, but just my gut. Perhaps maybe at tail end when it mixes out a tad. 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I was just trying to find that out.  I was supposed to go to Northampton but am going to wait.  It's got to be slick since the path I shoveled 10 minutes ago is already coated again. 

Yeah. We are heading there later today.  Leaving a bit early to stand outside in line. Oof

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

when that cold layer thins out areas from just SW of MHT to ENE over to Candia look to see freezing rain for a bit being in the 25-28F range

MHT Bufkit soundings still have a stout cold layer through 09z. Like 4000 ft deep.

I would also be pretty skeptical of any guidance that tries to rush the warm up above 32.

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