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NYE Mess Obs


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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm... Looking around at Wunderground as an unofficial layout of temperature behavior... I'm not seeing that the cold push occurred quite as prodigiously as I thought it might, given that leading panache offered by the various models/blends for this thing.

I thought I'd be upper 20s at the surface here in N Middlesex by now, with an even colder intervening region being fed by barrier jet ...offering a faux growth region below the deeper elevated UVM/warmer layer way up there...  Net result, would be light to moderate sleet with some tiny aggregates mixed in.   We are getting the sleet with weak growth snow, but it's wet snow...and though the surface did briefly drop to 31.5 about an hour and a half ago, it has since risen to 33 everywhere around... 

I can't say I'm disappointed if this ends this way.  I'm not really a fan of icing... If we can ice to .33" accretion and stop, that provides the brilliant prismatic splendor while keeping the lights on the internet connected and the home heated... I'm fine with that :) 

temps in most of SNE behaving exactly as meso's have been showing for a day

The cold push wasn't under modeled , it was pretty dang correctly modeled as i have been watching nearly every run waiting for it to "catch on" 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

temps in most of SNE behaving exactly as meso's have been showing for a day

The cold push wasn't under modeled , it was pretty dang correctly modeled as i have been watching nearly every run waiting for it to "catch on" 

Yeah they generally had the 32f line near 495. I thought it would push further south but real no signs of it. I've been 30-31F all morning, sitting between the 32-33f stuff on the border and the U20s working into MHT

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8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah they generally had the 32f line near 495. I thought it would push further south but real no signs of it. I've been 30-31F all morning, sitting between the 32-33f stuff on the border and the U20s working into MHT

I'm a bit surprised we haven't seen a stronger tug at the sfc up near Ray and into the ASH-FIT corridor....you almost ALWAYS see this undermodeled with a stubborn/building high to the north....but it seems this is one of the few times that we haven't had that happen.

 

It's almost like the secondary got squashed too far south to help turn the winds more NE.

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