OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Rain never made it to my house on the Falmouth line, got close but the rain/snow line is sinking back towards Casco Bay now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: 12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing. Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends. Without really looking hard, I think the narrow area where the warming halted or did not come as far north as predicted combined with the secondary and extended snows was an excellent combo. Guidance was warming past Lewiston. I remember thinking that would be hard. I’m curious as to what you find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: 12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing. Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends. Nice. Shawnee reporting 11" as of 5:30AM. Probably tacked on a couple more since then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing. Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends. Heard Local met say the cold air to the north kept feeding south, producing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 12.3" as of this morning, and still snowing. Time to dig into where guidance whiffed on this since I wasn't on shift and looking at the trends. Congrats Leggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Without really looking hard, I think the narrow area where the warming halted or did not come as far north as predicted combined with the secondary and extended snows was an excellent combo. Guidance was warming past Lewiston. I remember thinking that would be hard. I’m curious as to what you find. Just now, Lava Rock said: Heard Local met say the cold air to the north kept feeding south, producing precip. I know that the models overplayed the dry air eating away the northern edge of the precip. That was forecast to basically push precip back into NH for the day yesterday. Never happened and stayed predominantly snow around here. But also I want to look into why were models so warm initially only to flip to a very wintry system. Ensemble sensitivity is archived for at least a month, so I want to look into it from that perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 29. Very light snow. 10.5" A spotter 3 miles south of me reported 1.70" liquid snow to sleet back to snow. Forecast worked out very good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I know that the models overplayed the dry air eating away the northern edge of the precip. That was forecast to basically push precip back into NH for the day yesterday. Never happened and stayed predominantly snow around here. But also I want to look into why were models so warm initially only to flip to a very wintry system. Ensemble sensitivity is archived for at least a month, so I want to look into it from that perspective. Regardless, your 8-12" call early yesterday was solid for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1.3”/0.16” overnight 5.6”/1.74” total Needless to say the snowbanks look impressive for under a half foot of frozen. There’s basically no additional compaction when you move it. It’s equivalent to a 2ft fluff bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Euro be like... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I know that the models overplayed the dry air eating away the northern edge of the precip. That was forecast to basically push precip back into NH for the day yesterday. Never happened and stayed predominantly snow around here. But also I want to look into why were models so warm initially only to flip to a very wintry system. Ensemble sensitivity is archived for at least a month, so I want to look into it from that perspective. I’m pretty sure you stole my snow from the euro. That strip the clowns kept painting in the double digits verified just a bit east of here. You had some good low level salt aided snows coming from offshore last evening too. You could see the cells moving E to W on GYX below the midlevel echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Normally I don't lay things out like this, but last nights events over the course of about 60 minutes were too crazy not to document. I left Manchester at about 5:00pm and the sleet was just starting out. Not just sleet, but rumbles of thunder, and flashes of lightning. The temp was about 35F. By the time I got on to 84 east the sleet had picked up in intensity, as did the thunder and lightning. By the time I got to the STRIP CLUB and Tolland exits sh*t was starting to get real. The sleet was pouring down, visibility sucked, and the thunder was so loud that it shook the car. [My normal route to Brooklyn is route 6, which, after Bolton Notch (junctions of 384/44/6) only has moderate, graduate elevation changes... until I get to Chaplin and Brooklyn. But when I go to Melina's place in Dayville I take 84 East to route 74. This route is much different. As you can somewhat see with the topo map there are some decent hills and valleys. Some of them have a pretty decent incline. This is the roller coaster trip so to speak.] ...Once I got to the rte 74 exit all hell broke loose. There is an incline not to far after the ramp, and from there it was quite the treacherous ride. The temp was 32 by then and snow was now mixing in. Overall I passed 4 accidents, all of them ending with someone in a ditch, or hitting a pole or tree. The sleet was so sudden that people did not have much time to react. One accident had me arriving just after it happened. I got out to help the guy but he was fine. It has been a long time since I have driven in something like this, and with a 2 wheel drive I had to be real careful, and drive slow. ...Except at the inclines. I was pulling over to give the people enough time to get ahead of me so I could get enough speed and momentum to make it over the crests. A few times I thought I was going to be a chump and have to back down the hill, but luckily that was never the case. Sure, it was only about .75" of sleet , but that is all it takes for chaos to take over. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m pretty sure you stole my snow from the euro. That strip the clowns kept painting in the double digits verified just a bit east of here. You had some good low level salt aided snows coming from offshore last evening too. You could see the cells moving E to W on GYX below the midlevel echoes. Euro was very persistent in its last 8 runs or so of hitting this area with 10-12", GFS and RGEM too, All and all, Modeling did a pretty good job, I would have to say that the NAM was probably the most inconsistent and pushed the warmer air pretty far inland for here to changeover and it did not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Normally I don't lay things out like this, but last nights events over the course of about 60 minutes were too crazy not to document. I left Manchester at about 5:00pm and the sleet was just starting out. Not just sleet, but rumbles of thunder, and flashes of lightning. The temp was about 35F. By the time I got on to 84 east the sleet had picked up in intensity, as did the thunder and lightning. By the time I got to the STRIP CLUB and Tolland exits sh*t was starting to get real. The sleet was pouring down, visibility sucked, and the thunder was so loud that it shook the car. [My normal route to Brooklyn is route 6, which, after Bolton Notch (junctions of 384/44/6) only has moderate, graduate elevation changes... until I get to Chaplin and Brooklyn. But when I go to Melina's place in Dayville I take 84 East to route 74. This route is much different. As you can somewhat see with the topo map there are some decent hills and valleys. Some of them have a pretty decent incline. This is the roller coaster trip so to speak.] ...Once I got to the rte 74 exit all hell broke loose. There is an incline not to far after the ramp, and from there it was quite the treacherous ride. The temp was 32 by then and snow was now mixing in. Overall I passed 4 accidents, all of them ending with someone in a ditch, or hitting a pole or tree. The sleet was so sudden that people did not have much time to react. One accident had me arriving just after it happened. I got out to help the guy but he was fine. It has been a long time since I have driven in something like this, and with a 2 wheel drive I had to be real careful, and drive slow. ...Except at the inclines. I was pulling over to give the people enough time to get ahead of me so I could get enough speed and momentum to make it over the crests. A few times I thought I was going to be a chump and have to back down the hill, but luckily that was never the case. Sure, it was only about .75" of sleet , but that is all it takes for chaos to take over. I have driven both routes and those first 2 hills on 74 are fairly steep and would pretty much be white knuckle driving in sleet or snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Euro was very persistent in its last 8 runs or so of hitting this area with 10-12", GFS and RGEM too, All and all, Modeling did a pretty good job, I would have to say that the NAM was probably the most inconsistent and pushed the warmer air pretty far inland for here to changeover and it did not happen. Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job. I need to go take a core, It was spitting out between 1.2-1.4" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Normally I don't lay things out like this, but last nights events over the course of about 60 minutes were too crazy not to document. I left Manchester at about 5:00pm and the sleet was just starting out. Not just sleet, but rumbles of thunder, and flashes of lightning. The temp was about 35F. By the time I got on to 84 east the sleet had picked up in intensity, as did the thunder and lightning. By the time I got to the STRIP CLUB and Tolland exits sh*t was starting to get real. The sleet was pouring down, visibility sucked, and the thunder was so loud that it shook the car. [My normal route to Brooklyn is route 6, which, after Bolton Notch (junctions of 384/44/6) only has moderate, graduate elevation changes... until I get to Chaplin and Brooklyn. But when I go to Melina's place in Dayville I take 84 East to route 74. This route is much different. As you can somewhat see with the topo map there are some decent hills and valleys. Some of them have a pretty decent incline. This is the roller coaster trip so to speak.] ...Once I got to the rte 74 exit all hell broke loose. There is an incline not to far after the ramp, and from there it was quite the treacherous ride. The temp was 32 by then and snow was now mixing in. Overall I passed 4 accidents, all of them ending with someone in a ditch, or hitting a pole or tree. The sleet was so sudden that people did not have much time to react. One accident had me arriving just after it happened. I got out to help the guy but he was fine. It has been a long time since I have driven in something like this, and with a 2 wheel drive I had to be real careful, and drive slow. ...Except at the inclines. I was pulling over to give the people enough time to get ahead of me so I could get enough speed and momentum to make it over the crests. A few times I thought I was going to be a chump and have to back down the hill, but luckily that was never the case. Sure, it was only about .75" of sleet , but that is all it takes for chaos to take over. That map is awesome!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m pretty sure you stole my snow from the euro. That strip the clowns kept painting in the double digits verified just a bit east of here. You had some good low level salt aided snows coming from offshore last evening too. You could see the cells moving E to W on GYX below the midlevel echoes. Snow is serious business. I'll steal from anyone. 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job. I think this is a key point for clown mappers. One look at 700 mb told you there was going to be a lot of sleet in NH. The natural adjustment to the forecast would have been to shift the heavier snow accumulations NE accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 ...This guy last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That’s impressive. What were your totals previously before this one? I forget if you cracked 22” in the early month one. Grabbed 9" the first half of the Dec 1-3 storm then woke up to about 16" the follow day. Got D-1" the 2 days following, 2.5" the following Friday. Then a random 3.5" the next Weds. The ice came through in the end here. Encased and sagging pines trees this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Cold Miser said: ...This guy last night. Ouch. I had an earlier concern as to whether my plow guy would come out and plow with really no need. By EOD yesterday, I was hoping he would be coming. He just came thorugh......ovah-performah after a really lack-luster start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job. I'm thinking a disclaimer when someone posts those graphics on whether or not they think that;s what will fall should be a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Snow is serious business. I'll steal from anyone. I think this is a key point for clown mappers. One look at 700 mb told you there was going to be a lot of sleet in NH. The natural adjustment to the forecast would have been to shift the heavier snow accumulations NE accordingly. A lot of the mesoscale models really drove the warmth well into Maine which I found peculiar. I’m not sure why that’s the case or perhaps they didn’t give the ageostrophic component enough respect, but even a loft they looked just a little bit too warm once you get into Maine. I will say I remember thinking in my head that a small area may do well. You could see it was a long duration storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm thinking a disclaimer when someone posts those graphics on whether or not they think that;s what will fall should be a given. Clownmap* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1.18" LE on the melted core and 9.0" of snow, That's a 7.6:1 ratio of dense snow, So there was some warm air aloft, Its still snowing and probably when its all said and done could see another 1" or so that's a pretty good slug of moisture moving north on radar just to the east of PWM that may sneak in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I have driven both routes and those first 2 hills on 74 are fairly steep and would pretty much be white knuckle driving in sleet or snow! The magical Tolland hills. You were in the Bermuda Triangle. It’s a unique microclimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Some winter pics from winter hill this morning....pretty solid icing overnight. There was more ice overnight than anything that happened the previous night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 How much there, Will? edit saw your text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The magical Tolland hills. You were in the Bermuda Triangle. It’s a unique microclimate Not Tolland, the hills on 74 in Wilmington Just east of the RT 32 Intersection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Now the dilemma......do I worry about shoveling the couple inches of snow/ip. The sun's trying to break through and it's 33*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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