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January 2020 Discussion


HillsdaleMIWeather
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For all those calling for a change to a more sustained wintry pattern late Jan heading into Feb.....
....better get these guys the memo :yikes:
indice.thumb.jpg.b04967e57efd582c339723ec70859ec4.jpg

 
Check Don S's stats on strong MJO waves in the warm phases. Almost every historical case (7 of 8) since 1950 I believe of p4 wave at or above this year's amplitude progressed into phase 7 and 8. Most cases featured the wave being at least at an amplitude of 1 on the RMM plots for at least 14 days, which implies that the ECMWF ensemble should correct toward bringing the wave into phases 7 and 8 and potentially 1 and 2. CFS has gone to this idea. Also, phase 7 composites for January are colder for the east than the trimonthly composites on the CPC website. This doesn't mean anything for snow chances down the road, just that pattern should be going to more persistently colder.

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38 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

I got down to -3 out here. It's my first below zero reading all winter and it's january 17th. That''s got to be pretty close to a record right?

Unfortunately, because our winter climo is so bad, there have actually been 5 winters at MKE since 1870 where the temp never dropped below zero at all.  I know your backyard may be different than MKE, but still...

MKE-LOW-T-ANN.gif

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4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Unfortunately, because our winter climo is so bad, there have actually been 5 winters at MKE since 1870 where the temp never dropped below zero at all.  I know your backyard may be different than MKE, but still...

MKE-LOW-T-ANN.gif

Yeah I would use Madison over MIlwaukee for a close reporting station. Different low temp regimes with lake and all.

Edit: Actually just looking at the graphs for Madison, we have never recorder a year with no lows below zero. MSN-LOW-T-ANN.gif

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13 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Yeah I would use Madison over MIlwaukee for a close reporting station. Different low temp regimes with lake and all.

Right.  I checked MSN, and they've been below zero every winter since records began.  Quite a bit different than MKE...not a surprise I guess.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/WI/Madison/extreme-annual-madison-low-temperature.php

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Don't do it Hoosier.  Don't start to believe you will get enough snow to cover the grass
18Z-20200118_HRRRNIL_prec_ptype-24-36-100-100.gif.ecfcb244df6b0c1c436939e6aff681fb.gif
Need a halfway decent lake effect event. Even in the worst winters, usually get at least one. As an example, 2011-2012 had a short but intense LES event for NW IN in Feb, for which we issued a Blizzard Warning. 10" of snow in spots in 4-6 hours with 40-50 mph wind gusts.

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Need a halfway decent lake effect event. Even in the worst winters, usually get at least one. As an example, 2011-2012 had a short but intense LES event for NW IN in Feb, for which we issued a Blizzard Warning. 10" of snow in spots in 4-6 hours with 40-50 mph wind gusts.

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Indeed

Do you have any thoughts on this one?  The parameters look ok, and there is a decent amount of omega in the DGZ.  Looks like it may tend to hug the shore with time.  May be going out on a limb but would not be shocked at a localized 3-6" within a few miles of the shore somewhere in Lake/Porter.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Indeed

Do you have any thoughts on this one?  The parameters look ok, and there is a decent amount of omega in the DGZ.  Looks like it may tend to hug the shore with time.  May be going out on a limb but would not be shocked at a localized 3-6" within a few miles of the shore somewhere in Lake/Porter.

Hey hey

Band creeping up the IL shore toward the end so the Chi guys may want to keep an eye out

HRRRNIL_prec_kuchsnow_036.png.01c49f9b8c0c9db06fec173e33093043.png

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Trends on the HRRR don’t look great today. What are your thoughts?

Still wouldn't be surprised to see a localized 3-6" somewhere near the shore, but more generally should be a 1-3" type thing.  These amounts mostly favored in Lake/Porter though possibly clipping Cook.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still wouldn't be surprised to see a localized 3-6" somewhere near the shore, but more generally should be a 1-3" type thing.  These amounts mostly favored in Lake/Porter though possibly clipping Cook.

I’m right on the Lake downtown. Typically with these events I can eek out an inch. I’ve seen noticeable differences between my place and the west loop in these set ups. 

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