cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Everyday I come home from work and check the board hoping something interesting has popped up. Been like groundhog day the past month+. One of these days maybe there'll be something. Sheeesh, what a benign pattern we're stuck in. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 i'd say 2021 will be rocking but we all know that's not true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Everyday I come home from work and check the board hoping something interesting has popped up. Been like groundhog day the past month+. One of these days maybe there'll be something. Sheeesh, what a benign pattern we're stuck in. remember that Halloween snow? Death knell. Never fails. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Everyday I come home from work and check the board hoping something interesting has popped up. Been like groundhog day the past month+. One of these days maybe there'll be something. Sheeesh, what a benign pattern we're stuck in. What more do you need 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baum said: remember that Halloween snow? Death knell. Never fails. If there's any positive news, it's that most of the early starting seasons in Chicago had at least one decent or good month in Jan, Feb, or Mar, even if the final total ended up being not so good. So we'll see. Notable exception in 1952-53... that whole thing majorly sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What more do you need South Bend crusher 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: i'd say 2021 will be rocking but we all know that's not true Hopefully its a La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I disagree 100%. The thought of Detroit/Chicago becoming St Louis is laughable. Detroit consistently averages 6-8F colder than STL which means Chicago colder than that (DTW gets slight modification from Lake MI). Detroit just saw its snowiest decade on record, and records go to the 1870s. With snowfall on an Increasing trend and temps holding relatively steady, I have a hard time believing my snowfall is going to decrease 65% and my temps warm 7F or 8F in a decade or two Please see below for the decadal snow averages for Detroit, St Louis, and Memphis. The 1960s stick out like a sore, snowy thumb in Memphis, and the just completed 2010s averaged snowier than the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1990s, and 2000s in Memphis. Comparing trends to the cold and/or snowy winters of the 1960s/1970s which were the exception, not the rule, at nearly all locations, is like me holding 2013-14 to the standard of being a "decent" winter. S N O W F A L L Detroit - St Louis - Memphis 1890s – 42.7” - 18.6” - 9.0” 1900s – 46.3” - 20.5” - 3.8” 1910s – 39.7” - 25.7” - 8.5” 1920s – 46.1” - 13.1” - 2.9” 1930s – 32.9” - MM - 2.8” 1940s – 27.6” - 16.9” - 2.1” 1950s – 37.8” - 12.9” - 2.8” 1960s – 31.8” - 20.6” - 9.2” 1970s – 45.6” - 26.3” - 4.7” 1980s – 45.2” - 21.0” - 5.6” 1990s – 37.2” - 17.3” - 1.8” 2000s – 45.5” - 16.3” - 3.0” 2010s – 49.9” - 18.0” - 3.1” For reference, here are DJF TEMPS Detroit - St Louis - Memphis 1880s: 27.2 - 33.2 – 42.4 1890s: 26.9 - 35.0 – 43.9 1900s: 25.1 - 33.3 – 42.5 1910s: 25.5 - 33.1 – 42.2 1920s: 26.7 - 34.9 – 44.0 1930s: 28.1 - 34.6 – 44.6 1940s: 27.0 - 33.1 – 42.1 1950s: 28.5 - 34.8 – 44.0 1960s: 26.5 - 31.6 – 40.8 1970s: 24.6 - 30.5 – 41.8 1980s: 26.3 - 32.9 – 42.4 1990s: 28.7 - 35.4 – 44.5 2000s: 27.8 - 34.8 – 43.9 2010s: 28.2 - 35.1 – 44.1I've never seen it averaged by decade before. I'm not saying that the decay is going to affect Northern areas at the same rate. I do think locations running up to STL are at risk.That said, one of the things that your decadenal averaging highlights is the importance of a -AO for local snowfall.Now, my understanding is that the AO is mutidecadenal and it should flip back soon (theoretically meaning that we could see twice as much annual snowfall than we've been receiving) but- is it possible that it will not flip due to climate change?Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, mimillman said: South Bend crusher #Excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, mimillman said: South Bend crusher It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, IWXwx said: It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics. Drifts have got to be at least 3” in the bullseye. It’s gonna be a doozy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Drifts have got to be at least 3” in the bullseye. It’s gonna be a doozy. Live coverage from cantore will be epic 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 00z GFS is about 6 hours too fast on the southern stream for a phase. About as close as you can get without a result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I'm surprised we haven't started a thread for this event. Looks like a real barn burner. EDIT: Speaking of which, we've only had 4 event threads so far and we're now into January LMAO!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 7 hours ago, cyclone77 said: I'm surprised we haven't started a thread for this event. Looks like a real barn burner. EDIT: Speaking of which, we've only had 4 event threads so far and we're now into January LMAO!! Oh I have no doubt snow storm threads will be popping and hopping in March and April.... ....the new f**king norm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Pretty convective look to the precip with this northern stream wave. Could see some localized 3-4" amounts in parts of MN/IA, maybe isolated higher? Exciting stuff I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 It's certainly looking like a couple inches is a good bet around here. Unfortunately, it appears every snow system this winter is going to start just after dark in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 RGEM likely has the best handle on that strong disturbance moving through the region. North/wet is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's certainly looking like a couple inches is a good bet around here. Unfortunately, it appears every snow system this winter is going to start just after dark in the evening. Looks like the snow arrived there in time to give you a little daytime snow. Looks like an inch or so is possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 3.8" Clarion, IA as of an hour ago. Probably going to make a run at 6" there, being in the pivot point. Edit: New report of 5.5" a bit north of Clarion now. Someone is going to make a run at 6-8" around that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like the snow arrived there in time to give you a little daytime snow. Looks like an inch or so is possible here. I'm tempted to say over. Either for you or just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Just now, Chicago Storm said: I'm tempted to say over. Either for you or just north. Yeah wouldn't surprise me given the focused little bands. The key will be to get underneath one for a decent length of time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 48 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like the snow arrived there in time to give you a little daytime snow. Looks like an inch or so is possible here. It's not looking as favorable here now. The band was expected to stall over us, but the dry slot is about to clear through the area. We may end up with only an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's not looking as favorable here now. The band was expected to stall over us, but the dry slot is about to clear through the area. We may end up with only an inch. Yea, pivot point is currently transitioning from that N-C. Iowa area (near Clarion), to NE. Iowa now. Current trajectory would then bring it over towards DBQ-or nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Light snow has begun here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Up to 7" has fallen in north-central Iowa and it's still snowing there. Models handled this system poorly. Instead of a narrow nw-se band through the state, it's more like one heavy pocket with not a lot elsewhere. The HRRR suggests there could be another decent pocket over in the QC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Now there is an 8" report. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Up to 7" has fallen in north-central Iowa and it's still snowing there. Models handled this system poorly. Instead of a narrow nw-se band through the state, it's more like one heavy pocket with not a lot elsewhere. The HRRR suggests there could be another decent pocket over in the QC area.There was actually a corridor of 4-5” that extended up NW into SW. Minnesota/SE. South Dakota as well. But yea, that N-C. Iowa area is jackpot with 6-10”.RGEM seems to have handled this event the best, as it was favoring a narrow corridor of higher totals, with even a few runs having 6-7” lolli’s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Very nice dendrites with the enhanced band that just passed through. Can def see how those areas in north IA achieved those amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: There was actually a corridor of 4-5” that extended up NW into SW. Minnesota/SE. South Dakota as well. But yea, that N-C. Iowa area is jackpot with 6-10”. RGEM seems to have handled this event the best, as it was favoring a narrow corridor of higher totals, with even a few runs having 6-7” lolli’s. . Where does the model have the snow going next? Or is it going to weaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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