January 2020 Discussion

[Hoosier]

That is a bad look for the east.  Might be ok for the Midwest, at least parts of it.

[mississaugasnow]

I return from Asia/Europe end of January so hopefully my return brings some serious winter weather. I do feel like recent years has seen winter cruise later into spring than I remember. Last year I was at a wedding in early April just outside Toronto and it was the worst driving conditions of the winter. It sucks because it doesnt fit what "I want" haha. By mid March im looking forward to the first 60s/70s and sun. 31F and a sloppy 4-6" snowstorm kind of sucks by late March 

[CheeselandSkies]

Could we at least get some winter severe out of that pattern? I mentioned 12/1/18 in another thread just now. 1/2008 featured a Midwest tornado outbreak that would be prolific for any time of the year.

[Snowstorms]

55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That is a bad look for the east.  Might be ok for the Midwest, at least parts of it.

Looks like 2016-17 which had endless rain and warmth through much of January. 

[Hoosier]

[Hoosier]

[Spartman]

19 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Looks like 2016-17 which had endless rain and warmth through much of January. 

Too cloudy, as well that January. Sunshine at DAY that month was only about 13%. Chicago was without sunshine for an 8-day stretch during the final third of the month which was the 4th longest stretch behind the all-time stretch that occurred in late December 1991-early January 1992. Thus, it was the 2nd cloudiest January ever in Chicago behind 1998.

[RCNYILWX]

 

 

Can say with reasonable confidence that January will be active. The big question is how persistently amplified the southeast ridging is and the placement of Aleutian/AK ridging. Getting the ridging farther east into the EPO domain could make for a more than serviceable month for central, western and northern portions of the sub. Farther south and east could certainly be dicey if this weekend and next week's possible window is not cashed in on.  The January-February 2019 500 mb composite anomaly below and sensible weather results shows that the general idea being forecast by the longer ranges of the ensembles and Euro weeklies can work out really well for portions of the sub.

 

On the other hand, a too amplified southeast ridge and Aleutian ridging too far west could make for a warm/rainy active month for much of the sub and congrats MSP and north/northwest. I don't think we can yet for sure that the MJO being forecast to go with amplitude into the warm phases makes it a lock that it'll be a trash pattern even central and west, just that the warm risk is certainly there. If I'm recalling correctly, a good chunk of last January and February was spent in the warmer MJO phases. This shows it can work out for some of us, but did also make for the bad winter farther east and southeast in the sub and points east.

 

Also, I'd much rather have an active month biased warm that at least gives a chance for things to break right for a good event than endless cold and dry. Experience shows us that for a big dog we need at least some southeast ridging. The oscillating going on in later ranges of the EPS shows that we'll be on the edge so we'll have to wait and see which way things are leaning. Finally, with the likelihood of stout low level cold air masses northwest of here and warm press from SE ridge, we'll also have to watch for sig icing events in the battleground zone, similar to last February.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowlover2]

Happy New Year!!!

[UMB WX]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Can say with reasonable confidence that January will be active. The big question is how persistently amplified the southeast ridging is and the placement of Aleutian/AK ridging. Getting the ridging farther east into the EPO domain could make for a more than serviceable month for central, western and northern portions of the sub. Farther south and east could certainly be dicey if this weekend and next week's possible window is not cashed in on.  The January-February 2019 500 mb composite anomaly below and sensible weather results shows that the general idea being forecast by the longer ranges of the ensembles and Euro weeklies can work out really well for portions of the sub.

 

On the other hand, a too amplified southeast ridge and Aleutian ridging too far west could make for a warm/rainy active month for much of the sub and congrats MSP and north/northwest. I don't think we can yet for sure that the MJO being forecast to go with amplitude into the warm phases makes it a lock that it'll be a trash pattern even central and west, just that the warm risk is certainly there. If I'm recalling correctly, a good chunk of last January and February was spent in the warmer MJO phases. This shows it can work out for some of us, but did also make for the bad winter farther east and southeast in the sub and points east.

 

Also, I'd much rather have an active month biased warm that at least gives a chance for things to break right for a good event than endless cold and dry. Experience shows us that for a big dog we need at least some southeast ridging. The oscillating going on in later ranges of the EPS shows that we'll be on the edge so we'll have to wait and see which way things are leaning. Finally, with the likelihood of stout low level cold air masses northwest of here and warm press from SE ridge, we'll also have to watch for sig icing events in the battleground zone, similar to last February.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Post of the decade.  until winter  officially sucks   Thanks much,  RCNYILWX  for all your contributions over the yrs.  Happy New  Years, Weenies! 

It's gonna be Cozy or snowy. SE Ridge is always music to the winter ears.

[LansingWeather]

5 hours ago, Spartman said:

Too cloudy, as well that January. Sunshine at DAY that month was only about 13%. Chicago was without sunshine for an 8-day stretch during the final third of the month which was the 4th longest stretch behind the all-time stretch that occurred in late December 1991-early January 1992. Thus, it was the 2nd cloudiest January ever in Chicago behind 1998.

Haha, compared to Michigan that doesn't sound that bad. I forget how much less cloudy it is outside of the lake moisture.

[UMB WX]

sun in winter is so stupid... that's what vitamin D is for

[LansingWeather]

Just now, UMB WX said:

sun in winter is so stupid... that's what vitamin D is for

Yes! I hate the sun in the winter, melts the snow in places even below freezing. This is especially true in late Feb.

[UMB WX]

Just now, LansingWeather said:

Yes! I hate the sun in the winter, melts the snow in places even below freezing. This is especially true in late Feb.

ikr.. and there's not many times i've seen it snow with the sun out. Guess I could lather up in feb and catch some skin cancer rays and  50 degrees.  We fight for everything in the MW.  That's what makes being a snow weenie here so passionate.

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, LansingWeather said:

Haha, compared to Michigan that doesn't sound that bad. I forget how much less cloudy it is outside of the lake moisture.

 I was going to say, 8 days without Sun is the 4th longest stretch on record? My oh my lol Michigan says hold my faygo.

[Hoosier]

COD appears to be having some y2k y2k20 problems.  Nothing showing up as January 1

[cyclone77]

Looks like the next round of light snow will arrive after midnight Fri night, and be out of here by daybreak.  The season of the nocturnal nickel and dimers continues.  

This season def sucks ass, but I guess that's to be expected after such a great season last year.  

[beavis1729]

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the next round of light snow will arrive after midnight Fri night, and be out of here by daybreak.  The season of the nocturnal nickel and dimers continues.  

This season def sucks ass, but I guess that's to be expected after such a great season last year.  

Ha...more confirmation that I live on a completely different planet than most of the good folks in our sub-forum. 

People's standards are very low, especially since most of us seem to like cold and snow.  Where are the pitchforks and the complaining?  It's like nobody cares anymore.

Last winter was bad...no way around it.  It was only highlighted by some decent snowfall in mid-late Jan and the severe arctic outbreak in late Jan...along with a storm in late Nov that melted fairly quickly because the soil was still warm.  Sure, that was nice...but, the arctic outbreak was not as big of a deal as it could've been, because of the short duration and the fact that it warmed up to 40+F two days later. And December was a disaster, along with most of February. How is that a good winter?  If I lived in your area (using DVN as a proxy), last winter was a C- at best...as there were really only 3 weeks of winter during DJF, from mid-January to early Feb.  If not for the November storm, it would have been a D.  And I'm trying to be generous. 

My personal grade IMBY for last winter is a D-, because you can't have so many crappy weeks that were bad in DJF in order to salvage a good winter, despite the Nov storm, late Jan snow and cold, and a couple unusual April snowfalls that were nice to see but don't really contribute to the winter grade because it stayed light until about 7:30 PM.  Not the same feel when it snows in April. 

The only decent winters we've had in the last 10 years were:

(1) 2010-11 due to GHD I...but even that was a small letdown, as most of the snow melted within 10 days

(2) 2013-14, although Dec was obnoxiously mild

(3) 2014-15 due to GHD II and the cold Feb (but, again, frustrating since Dec and part of Jan were a torch)

So, only 3 decent winters out of 10.  Of course, given the last few crappy winters, I would probably sign up for those three winters in a heartbeat. Even I am starting to become jaded.  And, no, it doesn't mean I'm complaining about GHD I, or the 2013-14 winter.  GHD I was the first time I saw lightning during a snowstorm - an amazing experience. 

It's almost as if a 2-4 week period of solid wintry weather qualifies a winter to be "good".  Where does this thought process come from?  Last I checked, winter is 13 weeks...so, at a minimum, it would be nice if 50% of it were winter.  Not even saying 100%...just a measly 50% is all I'm asking.    

It's all in good fun...but would be nice to see others being as ****** off as I am about the last several years of non-winters.  Everyone seems so jaded...it's very sad. Even in this current horrendous stretch since 11/15/19, people are saying we're just having a bad run, and this happens sometimes. That's ridiculous; a stretch like this is a complete no holds barred disaster...no spinning it any other way.  There is no way that a 6-week stretch like this should even be possible. Even a 2-week stretch like this is a disaster.   

But, most importantly...Happy New Year to cyclone and everyone else, and best wishes to you and your families for a great 2020.

[Hoosier]

MLI had one of its snowiest seasons ever along with that historic cold, so I can see why cyclone ranks it highly. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

(2) 2013-14, although December was obnoxiously mild

Knowing that 2013-14 was the severest winter on record for Detroit, I had to look up Chicago, as while December here was the "wimpiest" of the 3 winter months it was still wintry. Chicago had a mean temp in Dec of 2013 of 23.3, which is 4.4° below avg. THAT is obnoxiously mild?

[mempho]

At least we'll be dead by then.

It doesn't take that long. Memphis went from an all-time average of 8.3 inches annually when exiting the 60s and I doubt that the new 30 year average will even break 3 inches. Now, 20 years ago,those were central MS averages.

100 to 200 miles is a huge gradient and- once you're in the steep decay gradient - the drop-off is ultra quick.

St. Louis is about 250 miles north of us (as the crow flies) averages 16 inches right now but they are not far from the 8 inch line- perhaps 150 miles. In 30 years, that means STL will likely lose half its annual total.

If you think this is isolated, then just go to Nashville... same basic issue.

Personally, we've probably gotten close to bottoming out on the rapid decline here and we're basically like Jackson, MS now. They're not doing any worse really because you're bound to get lucky every now and then with the Gulf sitting there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[RCNYILWX]

Big news...Pivotal weather now has forecast soundings from the Euro.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, mempho said:

It doesn't take that long. Memphis went from an all-time average of 8.3 inches annually when exiting the 60s and I doubt that the new 30 year average will even break 3 inches. Now, 20 years ago,those were central MS averages.

100 to 200 miles is a huge gradient and- once you're in the steep decay gradient - the drop-off is ultra quick.

St. Louis is about 250 miles north of us (as the crow flies) averages 16 inches right now but they are not far from the 8 inch line- perhaps 150 miles. In 30 years, that means STL will likely lose half its annual total.

If you think this is isolated, then just go to Nashville... same basic issue.

Personally, we've probably gotten close to bottoming out on the rapid decline here and we're basically like Jackson, MS now. They're not doing any worse really because you're bound to get lucky every now and then with the Gulf sitting there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

I disagree 100%. The thought of Detroit/Chicago becoming St Louis is laughable. Detroit consistently averages 6-8F colder than STL which means Chicago colder than that (DTW gets slight modification from Lake MI). Detroit just saw its snowiest decade on record, and records go to the 1870s. With snowfall on an Increasing trend and temps holding relatively steady, I have a hard time believing my snowfall is going to decrease 65% and my temps warm 7F or 8F in a decade or two

 

Please see below for the decadal snow averages for Detroit, St Louis, and Memphis. The 1960s stick out like a sore, snowy thumb in Memphis, and the just completed 2010s averaged snowier than the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1990s, and 2000s in Memphis. Comparing trends to the cold and/or snowy winters of the 1960s/1970s which were the exception, not the rule, at nearly all locations, is like me holding 2013-14 to the standard of being a "decent" winter.

S N O W F A L L

            Detroit - St Louis - Memphis

1890s – 42.7” - 18.6” - 9.0”

1900s – 46.3” - 20.5” - 3.8”

1910s – 39.7” - 25.7” - 8.5”

1920s – 46.1” - 13.1” - 2.9”

1930s – 32.9” - MM - 2.8”

1940s – 27.6” - 16.9” - 2.1”

1950s – 37.8” - 12.9” - 2.8”

1960s – 31.8” - 20.6” - 9.2”

1970s – 45.6” - 26.3” - 4.7”

1980s – 45.2” - 21.0” - 5.6”

1990s – 37.2” - 17.3” - 1.8”

2000s – 45.5” - 16.3” - 3.0”

2010s – 49.9” - 18.0” - 3.1”

 

For reference, here are DJF TEMPS

            Detroit - St Louis - Memphis

1880s: 27.2 - 33.2 – 42.4

1890s: 26.9 - 35.0 – 43.9

1900s: 25.1 - 33.3 – 42.5

1910s: 25.5 - 33.1 – 42.2

1920s: 26.7 - 34.9 – 44.0

1930s: 28.1 - 34.6 – 44.6

1940s: 27.0 - 33.1 – 42.1

1950s: 28.5 - 34.8 – 44.0

1960s: 26.5 - 31.6 – 40.8

1970s: 24.6 - 30.5 – 41.8

1980s: 26.3 - 32.9 – 42.4

1990s: 28.7 - 35.4 – 44.5

2000s: 27.8 - 34.8 – 43.9

2010s: 28.2 - 35.1 – 44.1

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, mempho said:

It doesn't take that long. Memphis went from an all-time average of 8.3 inches annually when exiting the 60s and I doubt that the new 30 year average will even break 3 inches. Now, 20 years ago,those were central MS averages.

100 to 200 miles is a huge gradient and- once you're in the steep decay gradient - the drop-off is ultra quick.

St. Louis is about 250 miles north of us (as the crow flies) averages 16 inches right now but they are not far from the 8 inch line- perhaps 150 miles. In 30 years, that means STL will likely lose half its annual total.

If you think this is isolated, then just go to Nashville... same basic issue.

Personally, we've probably gotten close to bottoming out on the rapid decline here and we're basically like Jackson, MS now. They're not doing any worse really because you're bound to get lucky every now and then with the Gulf sitting there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

I don't put a lot of faith in the regional/smaller scale predictions that say X will happen by a certain year in the Midwest.  There's good reason for that... a number of them have busted so far.  Another one is that extreme summer temperatures were supposed to increase (say, 100 degree days) but that has not only not happened yet, there's actually been some decrease in the frequency of those days in a number of cities so probably regionally as well.  You could certainly argue that farming practices have played a role in that and that we've traded extreme heat days for more high dewpoint days, and the literature does suggest that eventually the "farming signal" will be overcome and that 100 degree days will increase, but just how long will it take?

Getting back to snow though.  Let's say St. Louis does lose half its snowfall in 30 years.  Is there some rule that the decrease has to be uniform farther north?  Maybe the north-south gradient just gets more extreme?  Chicago's 30 year average is around 36".  Why couldn't they drop to 30" instead of down to a a St. Louis-like 18"?

[Hoosier]

Can we get some interesting weather. Please.

[Snowstorms]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can we get some interesting weather. Please.

It's been a really long time since we've had a fully phased snowstorm in the region. 

[Cary67]

14 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Ha...more confirmation that I live on a completely different planet than most of the good folks in our sub-forum. 

People's standards are very low, especially since most of us seem to like cold and snow.  Where are the pitchforks and the complaining?  It's like nobody cares anymore.

Last winter was bad...no way around it.  It was only highlighted by some decent snowfall in mid-late Jan and the severe arctic outbreak in late Jan...along with a storm in late Nov that melted fairly quickly because the soil was still warm.  Sure, that was nice...but, the arctic outbreak was not as big of a deal as it could've been, because of the short duration and the fact that it warmed up to 40+F two days later. And December was a disaster, along with most of February. How is that a good winter?  If I lived in your area (using DVN as a proxy), last winter was a C- at best...as there were really only 3 weeks of winter during DJF, from mid-January to early Feb.  If not for the November storm, it would have been a D.  And I'm trying to be generous. 

My personal grade IMBY for last winter is a D-, because you can't have so many crappy weeks that were bad in DJF in order to salvage a good winter, despite the Nov storm, late Jan snow and cold, and a couple unusual April snowfalls that were nice to see but don't really contribute to the winter grade because it stayed light until about 7:30 PM.  Not the same feel when it snows in April. 

The only decent winters we've had in the last 10 years were:

(1) 2010-11 due to GHD I...but even that was a small letdown, as most of the snow melted within 10 days

(2) 2013-14, although Dec was obnoxiously mild

(3) 2014-15 due to GHD II and the cold Feb (but, again, frustrating since Dec and part of Jan were a torch)

So, only 3 decent winters out of 10.  Of course, given the last few crappy winters, I would probably sign up for those three winters in a heartbeat. Even I am starting to become jaded.  And, no, it doesn't mean I'm complaining about GHD I, or the 2013-14 winter.  GHD I was the first time I saw lightning during a snowstorm - an amazing experience. 

It's almost as if a 2-4 week period of solid wintry weather qualifies a winter to be "good".  Where does this thought process come from?  Last I checked, winter is 13 weeks...so, at a minimum, it would be nice if 50% of it were winter.  Not even saying 100%...just a measly 50% is all I'm asking.    

It's all in good fun...but would be nice to see others being as ****** off as I am about the last several years of non-winters.  Everyone seems so jaded...it's very sad. Even in this current horrendous stretch since 11/15/19, people are saying we're just having a bad run, and this happens sometimes. That's ridiculous; a stretch like this is a complete no holds barred disaster...no spinning it any other way.  There is no way that a 6-week stretch like this should even be possible. Even a 2-week stretch like this is a disaster.   

But, most importantly...Happy New Year to cyclone and everyone else, and best wishes to you and your families for a great 2020.

"You can be mad as a mad dog about the way things went, you can curse the fates, but when it  comes to the end, you just have to let it go," Benjamin Button

[Chicago Storm]

50 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

It's been a really long time since we've had a fully phased snowstorm in the region. 

Indeed. And it's not gonna happen in this pattern either.

[Jim Martin]

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I don't put a lot of faith in the regional/smaller scale predictions that say X will happen by a certain year in the Midwest.  There's good reason for that... a number of them have busted so far.  Another one is that extreme summer temperatures were supposed to increase (say, 100 degree days) but that has not only not happened yet, there's actually been some decrease in the frequency of those days in a number of cities so probably regionally as well.  You could certainly argue that farming practices have played a role in that and that we've traded extreme heat days for more high dewpoint days, and the literature does suggest that eventually the "farming signal" will be overcome and that 100 degree days will increase, but just how long will it take?

Getting back to snow though.  Let's say St. Louis does lose half its snowfall in 30 years.  Is there some rule that the decrease has to be uniform farther north?  Maybe the north-south gradient just gets more extreme?  Chicago's 30 year average is around 36".  Why couldn't they drop to 30" instead of down to a a St. Louis-like 18"?

The past 2 decades have averaged almost 16" more per season at Detroit than during its mid 20th century low point in the climate record (1930-1969). In fact most places saw mild winters with less snow than long term averages during the 1930s-50s ( Detroit's problem in the 1960s was lots of misses, the Winters turned colder with better snow cover than the prior 30 years).  As you would expect, with the increase in snowfall, there have been some more impressive snow depths as well. We would need to start having a string of low snow seasons to start lowering our average back down to the long term average, and a whole lot of stinkers to get to the low point of the mid 20th century.  If we manage to ever hit that point, which seems extremely unlikely now, then we need to lose another 14 or 15" annually to become St Louis.  In other words, not worried about that in my lifetime lol.