January 2020 Discussion

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Looks to be a much warmer than normal start to this year/decade, with rain. Rest of the month is less certain after that, will it be a complete torch or will we get some actual snow?

[michsnowfreak]

Actually thinking the decade opens with a bit of snow on the ground, should the models be correct for New Year's Eve. Other than that, looks like a mild 1st week and then colder 2nd week. Rain and snow chances totally up in the air at this point though it does look to be more active January then December was.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's looking like the forecast put out by Canada's Weather Network could be in serious trouble.

 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canadas-winter-forecast-update-2019-2020-winter-pattern-locks-in-for-january

 

Environment Canada's forecast looks to be on target, though.

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

 

Amazing how different the two forecasts are.

 

[Frog Town]

Seriously looking like 11-12' redux.  Now that the warm blob in the NE pacific has cooled and the polar vortex has tightened up, the writing is on the wall.  Just goes to show how many things went right for 13-14' and how rare that set up was.  

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

Seriously looking like 11-12' redux.  Now that the warm blob in the NE pacific has cooled and the polar vortex has tightened up, the writing is on the wall.  Just goes to show how many things went right for 13-14' and how rare that set up was.  

Ever since Spring of 2012, every winter warm spell we have some bring up an 11-12 redux. And it has not happened since.  This Winter may not be the Winter we all wanted, but I doubt it will be that bad.  I could literally name hundreds of Winter warm spells over the past 140 years, many worse than the one we just went through. To me, an 11-12 redux needs to have a torchy November (could not have been more opposite this year) and a very early warm Spring. Things look OK going forward for those North of I 80.  2012 did have an OK amount of Winter from mid January to mid February, but even that was so so. Everything on either side of that month long block sucked.

[Hoosier]

Shouldn't be hard to get more snow than December.

Shouldn't be.

[Snowstorms]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Shouldn't be hard to get more snow than December.

Shouldn't be.

Has Chicago ever experienced well below normal snowfall in consecutive months (Dec-Jan)? 

[buckeye]

Kind of interesting.  JB posted the MJO chart for the winter of '78 and amazingly, the late January blizzard occurred in the midst of phase 5 and then it traveled all the way through 6.    Obviously it's all about trying to figure out which indice is going to be the driver.    

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Has Chicago ever experienced well below normal snowfall in consecutive months (Dec-Jan)? 

Yes, it can and has happened.  Dec 2012/Jan 2013 was brutal in Chicago.  More recently, Jan/Feb 2017 took futility to a new level with 0.6" TOTAL.

[mimillman]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, it can and has happened.  Dec 2012/Jan 2013 was brutal in Chicago.  More recently, Jan/Feb 2017 took futility to a new level with 0.6" TOTAL.

Was so glad I wasn’t here in 2017. I had briefly moved back to New York and we did decently well.

I do remember 2012-2013 and it was horrendous. I think there was a clipper train in Feb 2013 which was the only saving grace.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, it can and has happened.  Dec 2012/Jan 2013 was brutal in Chicago.  More recently, Jan/Feb 2017 took futility to a new level with 0.6" TOTAL.

0.6"? Wow thats crazy! Don't think YYZ has ever had such a futility record before. 

I doubt we'll repeat that again. I think after Jan 10th we'll see more wintry chances as the Pacific readjusts itself. 

[A-L-E-K]

Get used to it, gonna be a lot of bad years for snow lovers over the next millennia or so

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Get used to it, gonna be a lot of bad years for snow lovers over the next millennia or so

Actually id say the opositte. Most areas of this subforum have seen an increase, not decrease in snowfall the past 2 decades. Some a substantial increase.

[Cary67]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually id say the opositte. Most areas of this subforum have seen an increase, not decrease in snowfall the past 2 decades. Some a substantial increase.

Thats just because more moisture is becoming available further north for areas like Marquette and International Falls. Chicago and MSP have benefitted in the last decade but continued warming will inevitably lead to lower snow totals over time. Beginning with southern areas first then working their way north. Chicago becomes St. Louis. MSP becomes Chicago.  St. Louis becomes  Little Rock. The areas that will benefit the most and the longest will be up along the Canadian border and the provinces of Canada

 

[Hoosier]

At least we'll be dead by then.

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thats just because more moisture is becoming available further north for areas like Marquette and International Falls. Chicago and MSP have benefitted in the last decade but continued warming will inevitably lead to lower snow totals over time. Beginning with southern areas first then working their way north. Chicago becomes St. Louis. MSP becomes Chicago.  St. Louis becomes  Little Rock. The areas that will benefit the most and the longest will be up along the Canadian border and the provinces of Canada

 

I disagree. A running curve of winter temps at Detroit have remained stagnant since 1930 (other seasons have showed some degree of warming) and snowfall has increased....substantially. Avg snowfall 2008-18 at Detroit was 54", over a foot over longterm norm. But only time will tell so lets not get OT. 

 

[Chicago Storm]

At least we'll be dead by then.

I like this approach.


.

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

At least we'll be dead by then.

But not your kids. Anyways we shall see. 

[LansingWeather]

2 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

But not your kids

Wah, our kids might not get as much snow but they will have a longer growing season and more rain - if the sun activity doesn't drop temps.


Anyway why are we even talking about this? This is well beyond January, 2020.

[vortex]

58 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I disagree. A running curve of winter temps at Detroit have remained stagnant since 1930 (other seasons have showed some degree of warming) and snowfall has increased....substantially. Avg snowfall 2008-18 at Detroit was 54", over a foot over longterm norm. But only time will tell so lets not get OT. 

 

Yep.

When you look at the top 30 and bottom 30 total  seasonal snowfall for Chicago, 7 of the snowiest seasons occurred during the 2000s and 3 from the 2000s were the least snowiest.   

[Cary67]

1 minute ago, vortex said:

Yep.

When you look at the top 30 and bottom 30 total  seasonal snowfall for Chicago, 7 of the snowiest seasons occurred during the 2000s and 3 from the 2000s were the least snowiest.   

Not denying that. Just speculating that gradual warming could be responsible for both the recent above average snow totals and also the decline of snow averages over time as you reach a point where it gets just a bit warm on average to snow in our area. I just think that influence may come a bit quicker than some would like on this forum. At some point when you keep looking at global temp map averages that are almost completely red and yellow with just a couple blue patches it will catch up with you.  But this is for another topic.

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, LansingWeather said:

Wah, our kids might not get as much snow but they will have a longer growing season and more rain - if the sun activity doesn't drop temps.


Anyway why are we even talking about this? This is well beyond January, 2020.

Maybe I should start a "Millennia Banter and Complaint" thread.

[Chicago Storm]

But not your kids.

That becomes their problem then, not ours.


.

[A-L-E-K]

19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

That becomes their problem then, not ours.


.

Your palms will be thriving 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, vortex said:

Yep.

When you look at the top 30 and bottom 30 total  seasonal snowfall for Chicago, 7 of the snowiest seasons occurred during the 2000s and 3 from the 2000s were the least snowiest.   

Dont have top 30 handy for Detroit, but since 2000 the top 20 (since 1880) has 7 in the top 20 snowiest (actually top 16)...#s1, 5, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16) and just  in the bottom 20, and barely at that (#18).

[Jonger]

On 12/28/2019 at 3:02 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Get used to it, gonna be a lot of bad years for snow lovers over the next millennia or so

Temps have nothing to do with it. Snow and cold are completely tied to the jet stream... and we get extreme troughs about as often as ridges.

[Hoosier]

50 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Temps have nothing to do with it. Snow and cold are completely tied to the jet stream... and we get extreme troughs about as often as ridges.

I think it depends on whose temps you are talking about.  What happens globally may not be reflected regionally or locally.  We can still get colder than average winters in the Midwest no matter what is going on elsewhere.  But for the sake of argument, let's say Detroit starts seeing a significant warming trend in winter temps.  Snowfall is fickle but that would probably start to eat into the snowfall average eventually.  Josh or someone can check it out but if you look at Detroit's snowiest 10 or 20 winters, I bet you aren't going to find that many warmer than average ones in there... especially more than 1F above avg.  And the warmer than average winters probably lean toward mediocrity or worse for total snowfall.  Of course the farther north you are, the more you can get away with warming.  

[RogueWaves]

07-08 was the epitome of proof that way above avg snow fall can indeed happen despite a lack of the bitter cold seen in 13-14. That season was the exact opposite of what we've had around here last winter and so far this winter with the extremely poor timing of cold/moisture. 07-08 everything clicked in that dept. 

[Cary67]

10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

07-08 was the epitome of proof that way above avg snow fall can indeed happen despite a lack of the bitter cold seen in 13-14. That season was the exact opposite of what we've had around here last winter and so far this winter with the extremely poor timing of cold/moisture. 07-08 everything clicked in that dept. 

May have been one of my favorite winters here

[hlcater]

Time to get the lawn chairs out?