MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Courtesy of Blizzard of 93 in the upstate NY forum 18z Euro Eps was also much better and further south and east than the 12z run. Still some work needs to be done for the coast . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Courtesy of Blizzard of 93 in the upstate NY forum 18z Euro Eps was also much better and further south and east than the 12z run. Still some work needs to be done for the coast . Thanks 88 I needed a little pick me up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 SECS on the 00z euro for this Sunday. Around 4-6” city metro, with more to the east of Long Island 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, David-LI said: SECS on the 00z euro for next Sunday. Around 4-6” city metro, with more to the east of Long Island You’re wrong, It shows snows this weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 25 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: You’re wrong, It shows snows this weekend What is he wrong about? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 33 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: You’re wrong, It shows snows this weekend Euro is def better for the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, SHELEG said: What is he wrong about? Before I edited my comment I said “next Sunday” when it’s actually this coming Sunday. I am tired and thought today was Sunday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 8 degs. AN. 33* here at 6am. 37* by 9am. 43* by Noon. 48* by 3pm. EURO is 5" on the 5th., CMC is a T, and the GFS has no snow at anytime, with 850mb T's >0 for all its precipitation chances except the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 hours ago, Snow88 said: No it isnt. Why are you ignoring the trends on the euro ? H5 looks very good. Good ridge in the west and a sharp trough In the east. It will rain but it should turn to snow if the Euro is correct. The Euro is all by itself, in a world all to its own. No other model shows anything even close to what it does. GFS, ICON, NAM, CMC, UKMET, all nothing, like not even a trace. That should be a huge red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro is all by itself, in a world all to its own. No other model shows anything even close to what it does. GFS, ICON, NAM, CMC, UKMET, all nothing, like not even a trace. That should be a huge red flag Cmc is weak and east Icon is similiar to the euro but has a warm bias Gfs just came further east Euro and eps are step by step Nothing is a red flag. Stop ignoring the trends. This Is looking like a nice hit for inland areas. Of course things can change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 With all the warm talk on here wouldn't it be something if we reach average snowfall for January by the 8th as some guidance suggest. Also looking out into the extended the ensembles look like they want to create a ridge Bridge from the aleutians through the Arctic into Scandinavia and drop a trough late in the period in the east. There will also be plenty of cold air in Canada so any cutter should drop some cold air down into our area to somewhat offset the warm phase 4/5 mjo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc is weak and east Icon is similiar to the euro but has a warm bias Gfs just came further east Euro and eps are step by step Nothing is a red flag. Stop ignoring the trends. This Is looking like a nice hit for inland areas. Of course things can change Inland areas is not most of us Ant, we expect inland to do better than us in these conditions. The question is will anything happen for the vast majority of us here, and from all I have been reading for days here, it is highly unlikely. If it snows in Binghamton it doesn't really mean much for us. That said, I'd love for something to happen, we all would. Keep us posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Also with that Scandinavian Ridge which looks to develop by day 8 and continue throughout the end of the Run on the GEFS it looks to create a 50/50 low that stays there through the end of the Run that should somewhat mute how warm we get here. as others have said it's been a prominent feature on guidance since the spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Be careful with those Euro snowfall accumulation maps. While the NAM and other models are warmer than the Euro, the Euro is counting mixed precipitation in the mid 30’s as accumulations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Be careful with those Euro snowfall accumulation maps. While the NAM and other models are warmer than the Euro, the Euro is counting mixed precipitation in the mid 30’s as accumulations. Yes I agree not saying we're going to have accumulating snow on Sunday especially for the coast but the trend has been further south and colder. If the upper level low closes off South of us and we get some good banding there's definitely a chance we see some accumulations interesting how this was supposed to be a warm cutter several days ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: With all the warm talk on here wouldn't it be something if we reach average snowfall for January by the 8th as some guidance suggest. Also looking out into the extended the ensembles look like they want to create a ridge Bridge from the aleutians through the Arctic into Scandinavia and drop a trough late in the period in the east. There will also be plenty of cold air in Canada so any cutter should drop some cold air down into our area to somewhat offset the warm phase 4/5 mjo. 2 snow chances before a warmup but there will be cold nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 14 hours ago, snowman19 said: If that actually happens (phase 4/5, then COD and back to 4/5 late month), that would cook the rest of this month and into at least the beginning of February... Definitely. And then if the whole thing from 4/5 to COD back to 4/5 happens again in February then we're cooking in February, probably 70's with low 80's near and in the UHI. Forget about March, even though it's been the snowiest month in 4 of the last 5 seasons, if this scenario keeps repeating March is done and never delivers anyway, except of course in 4 of those last 5 years. April is now a summer month, except of course two years ago when 6 inches fell in the city. The least amount of snow in a single season is 2.8 inches in NYC (1972-73) and right now they're at 2.5 inches. There's a good chance right now they may break that record for least amount of snow in a season. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yes I agree not saying we're going to have accumulating snow on Sunday especially for the coast but the trend has been further south and colder. If the upper level low closes off South of us and we get some good banding there's definitely a chance we see some accumulations interesting how this was supposed to be a warm cutter several days ago Even the EPS is split on track. A number of members take the low right across Long Island and others to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Even the EPS is split on track. A number of members take the low right across Long Island and others to the south. You cant deny the trend though. H5 looks really good We just need the temps to cooperate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6z euro still looks really nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6z euro still looks really nice. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You cant deny the trend though. H5 looks really good We just need the temps to cooperate The problem for the coast is the fact the airmass is marginal at best and the primary low is to strong. It would be nice to see the primary weaken earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You cant deny the trend though. H5 looks really good We just need the temps to cooperate The storm probably tracks near or maybe just south of Long Island with a change to snow at the end. Temps will be marginal for accumulations. But we could see something on the colder surfaces if it snows hard enough. Even a C-3 event would be nice before the eventual warm up around the 10th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm probably tracks near or maybe just south of Long Island with a change to snow at the end. Temps will be marginal for accumulations. But we could see something especially on the colder surfaces if it snows hard enough. Even a C-3 event would be nice before the eventual warm up around the 10th. These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 28F at 7am Better hope for small ball to save this next 2 weeks... they can’t all be home runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island. We had the timing down for a while now with the window around the 5-6th. Long Island typically does better than NYC in rain to snow situations. This gets reversed with snow to rain when NYC usually beats parts of Long Island. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island. Did you see the 6z Euro? That would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island. Depends how tucked in the low is. 6z Euro has the low really tucked in and it looks like h5 actually gets captured which changes the rain to snow for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Sorry but seriously the low is bombing out that’s what the euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Sorry but seriously the low is bombing out that’s what the euro shows Yep but the models have really sucked this season. Even the euro hasnt been good. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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