NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I wouldn't throw in the towel on next weekend. I just posted the tellies and the NAO and AO goes briefly negative with a brief spike with the pna. also with the Euro continuing to stay well off the coast chances are this will not cut west of us - more then likely a close to Benchmark track BUT that positioning of HP to the north with the cold enough air flowing in is the key ingredient...……..a negative NAO would help quite a bit to keep HP with the cold air from escaping too fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Long range model skill may be ready to make another decline. They have dueling areas of forcing in the IO and WPAC. So it’s no surprise that their MJO forecasts are all different. Plus check out this big Jet extension across most of the Northern Hemisphere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 This was the mjo for February 2015. Just hung out in cod until March it went crazy in cold phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: Long range model skill may be ready to make another decline. They have dueling areas of forcing in the IO and WPAC. So it’s no surprise that their MJO forecasts are all different. Plus check out this big Jet extension across most of the Northern Hemisphere. Imo the forcing in the western pac is a kelvin wave that will fade quickly. You can see it on the roundy plots. The gefs have the correct idea on mjo progression. The euro and its ensembles have been correcting towards the Gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I wouldn't throw in the towel on next weekend. I just posted the tellies and the NAO and AO goes briefly negative with a brief spike with the pna. Probably the only chance until late Feb. Models showing SE ridge response after Feb 5 likely due to phase 6 brief MJO passage. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Probably the only chance until late Feb. Models showing SE ridge response after Feb 5 likely due to phase 6 brief MJO passage. I never put any credence in 30 day forecast declarations for or against snow probabilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Quote NYC is averaging 33.2" for a season since the 2010-11 to this year so far...the decade of the 1890's averaged 34.8" from 1890-91 to 1899-00...if no more snow falls this winter the 2010's would come in second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Another beautiful eps run for the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just an awful winter month...Yesterday's storm was probably the biggest event of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Just now, doncat said: Just an awful winter month...Yesterday's storm was probably the biggest event of the month. It’s been warm! What a awful month for winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 The most shocking to me is how many days we have had where even the LOW did not go below freezing this month. It is quite shocking. I had to laugh at my wife today when she said it was cold this morning at 38 degrees when we went outside. I said we should be below freezing just about every morning this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: The most shocking to me is how many days we have had where even the LOW did not go below freezing this month. It is quite shocking. I had to laugh at my wife today when she said it was cold this morning at 38 degrees when we went outside. I said we should be below freezing just about every morning this time of year. Yeah have had 11 days here that failed to hit freezing...that's alot for January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Temperatures again topped out in the middle and upper 40s across the region. Even as slightly cooler air is likely in coming days, temperatures will generally run above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC through the rest of January. Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. Arctic air is unlikely. Moreover, the cold could be transient. As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was -1.50 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.165. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through February 3. Wave 2 activity will continue to increase during the first week of February, especially in the upper stratosphere. This activity will produce warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the first days of February. On January 25, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.653 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.201. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record. The combination of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: The most shocking to me is how many days we have had where even the LOW did not go below freezing this month. It is quite shocking. I had to laugh at my wife today when she said it was cold this morning at 38 degrees when we went outside. I said we should be below freezing just about every morning this time of year. 2020 has nine days with a minimum 32 or lower this month in Central Park...the record is 4 set in 1932...10 in 1990 and 2006...11 in 2002...1932 had one day in the 20's and it came on the last day of the month... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 It's snowing. Well, more like flurries but yeah it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The last 5 days of January are averaging 37degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +7.1[39.5]. January should end at +6.6[39.0]. The first 11 days of February are averaging (0Z, GFS) 40degs, or 7degs. AN. Snow near the 3rd. and 8th.(throw your dart). Where is the improvement that was forecast? Now the first 12 days on the next GFS run is averaging 35degs., or 2degs. AN, but all the snow is largely gone. And finally today's 12Z GFS is down to 34degs for this period., or 1deg. AN----but with No Snow (indeed No Precipitation at all), through the 12th. 38* here at 5am. 38* at 6am. 39* by 9pm. 43* by 2pm. 45* by 4pm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Another mind numbing weather week coming up...when the biggest news is temps falling well down in the 20's by Thurs..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 23 minutes ago, doncat said: Another mind numbing weather week coming up...when the biggest news is temps falling well down in the 20's by Thurs..... It's like winter in central Georgia--will we get below freezing at night in the dead of winter? YAWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's like winter in central Georgia--will we get below freezing at night in the dead of winter? YAWN The January highs and lows were nearly identical to Atlanta so far. Atlanta.....72....23 NYC..........69....20.......EWR.....70....20 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: It's like winter in central Georgia--will we get below freezing at night in the dead of winter? YAWN Very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The January highs and lows were nearly identical to Atlanta so far. Atlanta.....72....23 NYC..........69....20.......EWR.....70....20 If we are experiencing, for our latitude, what will be a cold season future norm, I shudder think what think what the warm direction abnormal will bring, As always ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, rclab said: If we are experiencing, for our latitude, what will be a cold season future norm, I shudder think what think what the warm direction abnormal will bring, As always ....... Just one record after another for winter warmth since December 2015. Those 13-14 and 14-15 seasons seem like a long time ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 We have just under 4 prime winter weeks left for the immediate metro-area. Let that sink in. Yes we can get snow, but the lack of 'winter' feel around here has been painful, right up there with 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: We have just under 4 prime winter weeks left for the immediate metro-area. Let that sink in. Yes we can get snow, but the lack of 'winter' feel around here has been painful, right up there with 2011-2012. We are now in what is historically the best period in NYC for 6 plus inch snowfalls. There have been 193 six plus inch storms since 1870 occurring in the 5 month period between November 15th to April 13th. Seventy of them have occurred in the 30 day period between January 20th to February 18th. NYC 6+ inch Snows - 10 day periods 1..... Nov-11-Nov-20 4..... Nov-21-Nov-30 6..... Dec-01-Dec-10 13.... Dec-11-Dec-20 18.... Dec-21-Dec-30 12.... Dec-31-Jan-09 15.... Jan-10-Jan-19 20.... Jan-20-Jan-29 25.... Jan-30-Feb-08 25.... Feb-09-Feb-18 16.... Feb-19-Feb-28 18.... Feb-29-Mar-10 11.... Mar-11-Mar-20 2..... Mar-21-Mar-30 6..... Mar-31-Apr-09 1..... Apr-10-Apr-19 193.. Nov-15-Apr-13 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The January highs and lows were nearly identical to Atlanta so far. Atlanta.....72....23 NYC..........69....20.......EWR.....70....20 Forky nailed it months ago... we're Atlanta with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Slightly cooler air is moving into the region. Nevertheless, temperatures will generally run somewhat above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC through the rest of January. Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. Arctic air is unlikely. Moreover, the cold could be transient. As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was -0.56 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.700. Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 4. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February. This activity will produce warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the first days of February, but the strong Wave 2 activity has increased the risk of warming that could propagate downward. On January 26, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.448 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.724. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record. The combination of ENSO in combination with an AO+/EPO+ base state suggests that February will wind up warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The last 4 days of January are averaging 35degs., or 3 degs. AN. Month to date is +7.2[39.5]. January should end near +6.5[38.9]. The first 12 days of Feb. are averaging (0Z, GFS)34degs., or about 1deg. AN. 6" of Snow near the 2nd., and 2" near the 10th. The other two models are snowless the next 10 days. FLASH: The unreliable 06Z GFS has an average T of 32degs., or 1deg. BN for the first 13 days of February and turns all liquid into Snow, for a total of 22". DOUBLE FLASH: Cancel the previous Flash. 12Z GFS Average T is back up to 40degs., or 7degs. AN for the first 13 days of Feb. and Snow less. The models should take the Fifth Amendment and disappear into the Government's Model Protection Program before the Meteorological Society puts a HIT out on them!!!!!! For completeness I present the 18Z GFS: Average T is 37degs. for the first 13 days of Feb., with some snow at the end of the period---that means UCWYAWI. 38* here at 6am. 43* by 1pm. 40* by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 A top 10 warmest January for many. The winter temperature departures since December 1st are +3 to +8 across the East. Big reduction in home heating costs for a large amount of customers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: A top 10 warmest January for many. The winter temperature departures since December 1st are +3 to +8 across the East. Big reduction in home heating costs for a large amount of customers. At least we had a pretty normal Dec temp and snowfall wise, for many of us. Some stations had record precip. totals....This month though, forget it...on all fronts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 55 minutes ago, doncat said: At least we had a pretty normal Dec temp and snowfall wise, for many of us. Some stations had record precip. totals....This month though, forget it...on all fronts. Yeah, the flip around the solstice was very dramatic. We were -2 to -3 before then. But quickly reversed to the 5th warmest on record since December 22nd. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Jan 27 Missing Count 1 1932-01-27 42.7 0 2 1950-01-27 41.9 0 - 1933-01-27 41.9 0 3 1937-01-27 40.8 0 4 2006-01-27 40.5 0 5 2020-01-27 40.4 0 6 2007-01-27 40.1 0 7 1913-01-27 39.9 0 8 2017-01-27 39.3 0 - 1995-01-27 39.3 0 9 1998-01-27 39.1 0 10 2016-01-27 38.8 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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