psv88 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow nobody discussing today's rainstorm Getting breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: I just think the Pv will corporate as we enter February. We could see a more of a La Niña @Isotherm look mid month but the cold air will be around. The recent MJO, FT/MT mediated momentum surge and concomitant high-GWO orbit should at least mediate the semi-persistent AK-GOAK low height anomaly --> wave 1 induction --> convergence/pressure onto the SPV. So, the material weakening of the SPV in mid February is likely more genuine than many of the GEFS plots have depicted this winter heretofore. As the stratospheric status begins to improve mid February onward, I am monitoring the next cycle of tropical wave propagation toward the Central Pacific as we reach the last week of February. At which time, better tropical--->stratospheric receptivity could mediate a more favorable pattern than we've seen to date, from approximately late February into March. Speculative/a priori, but as stated, there are signs that end of winter could feature an "improved pattern." Until late Feb, yes, I think RNA-type structure after a very marginal window in early Feb. As mentioned in my update a week or so ago, the pattern in Feb, while still favoring the interior (RNA structure) will probably offer more chances than Dec-Jan. Still watching late Feb-Mar [somewhat lower confidence speculation for now, but it's something to monitor]. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow nobody discussing today's rainstorm The puddles outside must be getting bigger by 2-3 cm per hour now. Just drenching out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 26 minutes ago, Isotherm said: The recent MJO, FT/MT mediated momentum surge and concomitant high-GWO orbit should at least mediate the semi-persistent AK-GOAK low height anomaly --> wave 1 induction --> convergence/pressure onto the SPV. So, the material weakening of the SPV in mid February is likely more genuine than many of the GEFS plots have depicted this winter heretofore. As the stratospheric status begins to improve mid February onward, I am monitoring the next cycle of tropical wave propagation toward the Central Pacific as we reach the last week of February. At which time, better tropical--->stratospheric receptivity could mediate a more favorable pattern than we've seen to date, from approximately late February into March. Speculative/a priori, but as stated, there are signs that end of winter could feature an "improved pattern." Until late Feb, yes, I think RNA-type structure after a very marginal window in early Feb. As mentioned in my update a week or so ago, the pattern in Feb, while still favoring the interior (RNA structure) will probably offer more chances than Dec-Jan. Still watching late Feb-Mar [somewhat lower confidence speculation for now, but it's something to monitor]. I’m is great agreement with you. I think we see a favorable period at the end of the first week in February. Mid month more of a -pna/se ridge with the cold in the mid west. End of the month as the mjo goes back into colder phases we see a favorable period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 1:33 PM, JustinRP37 said: If we do reach or exceed our average for snowfall this year it will be because of one massive storm that likely melts within a week. I hope we can salvage that much. That is still on the table. Yeah, it usually comes down to getting a deep enough system near the benchmark with a high to the N or NW or favorable UL track. Even brief -NAO or -AO intervals can produce that track for us. My favorite example of this was February 2017. That was one of our warmest Februaries on record averaging around 40 degrees. It’s close to the same temperature we have averaged since late December. But all it took that month was a brief -AO /-NAO drop to produce. March 2018 really delivered for us while averaging around 40 degrees. But the extended strong blocking and proper high pressure placement locked in the the benchmark storm track for multiple events. That’s why I am more about the right storm track and teleconnections rather than absolute temperature departures for snowfall. Last winter was all about the wrong storm track and intervals of cold going to waste. This winter so far was a combination of poor storm track and warmth. So you hope that we can capitalize on any blocking intervals we get during the remainder of the season. But there are no guarantees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 36 minutes ago, Isotherm said: The recent MJO, FT/MT mediated momentum surge and concomitant high-GWO orbit should at least mediate the semi-persistent AK-GOAK low height anomaly --> wave 1 induction --> convergence/pressure onto the SPV. So, the material weakening of the SPV in mid February is likely more genuine than many of the GEFS plots have depicted this winter heretofore. As the stratospheric status begins to improve mid February onward, I am monitoring the next cycle of tropical wave propagation toward the Central Pacific as we reach the last week of February. At which time, better tropical--->stratospheric receptivity could mediate a more favorable pattern than we've seen to date, from approximately late February into March. Speculative/a priori, but as stated, there are signs that end of winter could feature an "improved pattern." Until late Feb, yes, I think RNA-type structure after a very marginal window in early Feb. As mentioned in my update a week or so ago, the pattern in Feb, while still favoring the interior (RNA structure) will probably offer more chances than Dec-Jan. Still watching late Feb-Mar [somewhat lower confidence speculation for now, but it's something to monitor]. I wonder if it can match what he got in March 2018 into April 2018....that was something (even if most of the storms were mixed precip. besides the last two.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it usually comes down to getting a deep enough system near the benchmark. Even brief -NAO or -AO intervals can produce that track for us. My favorite example of this was February 2017. That was one of our warmest Februaries on record averaging around 40 degrees. It’s close to the same temperature we have averaged since late December. But all it took that month was a brief -AO /-NAO drop to produce. March 2018 really delivered for us while averaging around 40 degrees. But the extended strong blocking locked in the the benchmark storm track for multiple events. That’s why I am more about the right storm track and teleconnections rather than absolute temperature departures for snowfall. Last winter was all about the wrong storm track and intervals of cold going to waste. This winter so far was a combination of poor storm track and warmth. So you hope that we can capitalize on any blocking intervals we get during the reminder of the season. But there are no guarantees. Maybe this winter can end up like 2005-06 after all (we were talking about it even before winter began.) We got the one big storm in February but we had a cold March and April and barely missed on a few threats. Still ended up with 40" of seasonal snowfall after that one last event in early April. What can go right: 2005-06 One giant storm plus a few minor events. What can go wrong: 2006-07 It sure got cold but bad track resulted in mostly ice events. Awesome to have both extremes in back to back years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The puddles outside must be getting bigger by 2-3 cm per hour now. Just drenching out there. Backyard is under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Eps looks great and it continues to move up in time. Still centered around the 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: Fair amount of hyperbole going on. Even if the anomalies are positive, in the dead of winter, the temps are still cold. We have a crap pattern. Hopefully that changes. You could get a good pattern/track in this kind of weather and still end up with a rainstorm. Thats what we got in 1997-98 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe this winter can end up like 2005-06 after all (we were talking about it even before winter began.) We got the one big storm in February but we had a cold March and April and barely missed on a few threats. Still ended up with 40" of seasonal snowfall after that one last event in early April. What can go right: 2005-06 What can go wrong: 2006-07 Awesome to have both extremes in back to back years lol. Even 06-7 had a few sleet events. I'm not hopeful for this year; once it says snowless this long I kinda give up on it. If it happens great, but not expecting it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: The anomalies are warm except for Alaska. Yes AN in Canada is still BN for us but to get a BN stretch here there needs to be normal to below normal in Canada where our cold comes from. Look at the stats for Europe and Russia for this year. Then look at ours. This is highly unusual. Can it change? Sure but arctic sea ice is still well below normal for the time of year. I wouldn’t bet on any sustained cold weather this year, all I am saying. No hyperbole. Until models or actual data start showing normal to BN temperatures don’t call it hyperbole because the only hyperbole right now is saying that we will have a blockbuster February for snow. If we do reach or exceed our average for snowfall this year it will be because of one massive storm that likely melts within a week. I hope we can salvage that much. That is still on the table. Yes thats why I listed as 2005-06 and 2006-07 as the best and worst case scenarios for this winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, weatherpruf said: Even 06-7 had a few sleet events. I'm not hopeful for this year; once it says snowless this long I kinda give up on it. If it happens great, but not expecting it. The last couple of March's have made me hopeful for something after the peak of winter passes. But you know as well as I, our locations are not conducive to big March snowfalls. If we get 10 inches total in March I'll be extremely happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: You could get a good pattern/track in this kind of weather and still end up with a rainstorm. Thats what we got in 1997-98 too. Indeed. Storm after storm of wind driven rain; blew my storm door off and shattered the glass. Wouldn't see a snow storm of any consequence for years....til Jan 2001, year of the infamous March non-event....and yes I know it delivered north but really..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, weatherpruf said: Indeed. Storm after storm of wind driven rain; blew my storm door off and shattered the glass. Wouldn't see a snow storm of any consequence for years....til Jan 2001, year of the infamous March non-event....and yes I know it delivered north but really..... We had one of those infamous nonevents in March 1998 too- 5 inches that melted the next day on the first day of Spring! Otherwise we would have gone the route of Philly and gotten shut out that "winter"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, weatherpruf said: Indeed. Storm after storm of wind driven rain; blew my storm door off and shattered the glass. Wouldn't see a snow storm of any consequence for years....til Jan 2001, year of the infamous March non-event....and yes I know it delivered north but really..... December 2000 crushed out area of middlesex county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: December 2000 crushed out area of middlesex county. 2000-01 was a really good winter that gets a bad rep because of March 2001. Dec 2000 gave us 16 inches of snow here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Backyard is under water. I see waves in my backyard. I could go surfing in my yard in this kind of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: 2000-01 was a really good winter that gets a bad rep because of March 2001. Dec 2000 gave us 16 inches of snow here! Agree. The December storm was amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Agree. The December storm was amazing. Consider the winters that came before that season (96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00) and the winter that came after it (01-02).....makes 2000-01 seem like 1995-96! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: Consider the winters that came before that season (96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00) and the winter that came after it (01-02).....makes 2000-01 seem like 1995-96! Absolutely. I remember being in awe of the snow depth after the December storm. It had been since 95-96 since I had witness snow like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Wasn't expecting sun today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wasn't expecting sun today At this rate, that might mean severe wx later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2000-01 was a really good winter that gets a bad rep because of March 2001. Dec 2000 gave us 16 inches of snow here! Growing up near Baltimore, this wasn’t a big disappointment because I was twelve years old on a carnival cruise when this storm missed us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Currently heavy rain, 50 degrees and winds gusting to 36mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 full rainbow in jersey city 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Heaviest downpour in a while to move through through SW Suffolk. Wantagh mesonet to my west is at 1.11 of rain. Probably some street flooding in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I am wondering why some low level ground fog has developed following the cessation of the rain. I checked the temperature, and there hasn't been any surge of much warmer air, nor did the sun come out (as happens in summer sometimes). I would have thought that the fog would form only if warmer temperatures were moving over colder ground. The ground is still frozen a little further down, but the precip that fell today was all liquid. The temperature has barely varied a degree all day. Just curious about the fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Heaviest rains of the day just as the rain is moving out, closing in on 1.00”. Sky getting brighter despite the sun having set already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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