CIK62 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The last 7 days of January are averaging 40degs., or 7.5degs. AN. Month to date is +6.8[39.2]. January should end at +6.9[39.3], or 8th. Place. Indeed, as speculated, the EURO 18" has melted away in one run. The first 10 days of Feb. are averaging 35degs., or +2. Nothing should happen till the 8th., snowwise. Winter to date is: From Dec. 01 +3.4 and From Dec. 22 +7.3. 43* here at 6am. 42* at 7am. 43*, breezy, drizzle at 8am. 44*, rain at 9am. 49* by 3pm, rain,windy. 51* with breaks in clouds at 3:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 A pretty good amount of precipitation just off to our west which should be moving into the metro area over the next hour or two. It looks to be making pretty slow eastward movement so we should get a decent amount of rain today. Current temp 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 35F Sprinkles in air Wasn’t today supposed to be the great coastal snow storm? I think I read that on this forum... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Warmest January since 2010 at EWR and NYC so far. January temperature departures since 2010 EWR....7 out of 11 warmer NYC.....6 out of 11 colder LGA.....7 out of 11 warmer ...........EWR....NYC....LGA 2020....+7.3...+6.8...+5.8....so far 2019....+0.3....-0.1...+0.3 2018....-0.7....-0.9....-1.5 2017...+6.2...+5.4....+6.8 2016...+1.7....+1.9...+2.7 2015...-3.1.....-2.7......-3.1 2014....-4.5.....-4.0....-4.2 2013....+3.8....+2.5...+2.9 2012....+5.4...+4.7....+4.6 2011....-2.1.....-2.9.....-1.0 2010...+0.8....-0.1.....+0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Warmest January since 2010 at EWR and NYC so far. January temperature departures since 2010 EWR....7 out of 11 warmer NYC.....6 out of 11 colder LGA.....7 out of 11 warmer ...........EWR....NYC....LGA 2020....+7.3...+6.8...+5.8....so far 2019....+0.3....-0.1...+0.3 2018....-0.7....-0.9....-1.5 2017...+6.2...+5.4....+6.8 2016...+1.7....+1.9...+2.7 2015...-3.1.....-2.7......-3.1 2014....-4.5.....-4.0....-4.2 2013....+3.8....+2.5...+2.9 2012....+5.4...+4.7....+4.6 2011....-2.1.....-2.9.....-1.0 2010...+0.8....-0.1.....+0.1 Easily. What is particularly scary is the fact that there is no cold air in sight, which is simply amazing. It is like winter just didn’t show up this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Easily. What is particularly scary is the fact that there is no cold air in sight, which is simply amazing. It is like winter just didn’t show up this year Everything that could've gone wrong went wrong so far. We had a massive +EPO flip, zero Atlantic blocking, very cold and stable PV in the Arctic, essentially a -PDO/PNA. That's why the entire country + Europe is well above normal and Alaska's cold finally. It's very reminiscent of 11/12 & 01/02 though with the Nino influence & split flow pattern it'll be more active. Time will time if anything will truly change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Easily. What is particularly scary is the fact that there is no cold air in sight, which is simply amazing. It is like winter just didn’t show up this year We weren’t even the warmest relative to the means across the Northern Hemisphere. The ridge stuck north of Hawaii with the +EPO and +NAO Is a very mild winter pattern for us. We would probably be talking about 100 degree days if this was the summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 9 am, rain was moving into the New York City Metro Area. As of 9 am, rainfall totals included: Baltimore: 1.47"; Philadelphia: 0.59"; and, Washington, DC: 1.33". A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts remains on track for the region. Meanwhile, ENSO and teleconnections developments have continued to evolve toward a scenario where a milder February may now be more likely than a colder one. During February, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly will likely average 0.00°C to +0.75°C. The most recent 6-week moving average is +0.52°C. During February, both the AO and EPO will likely remain predominantly positive. The AO has been positive on 75% days this winter to date, including 68% during which it was +1.000 or above. This ENSO-teleconnections combination typically favors a warmer than normal February. Late yesterday (18z GEFS) and overnight (0z EPS/0z and 6z GEFS) now show the trough shifting to the west and potential ridge development in the East near the end of their timeframes. In addition, the CFSv2 has been steadily evolving toward a milder solution in the East. Most recent CFSv2 forecasts: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... At 9 am, rain was moving into the New York City Metro Area. As of 9 am, rainfall totals included: Baltimore: 1.47"; Philadelphia: 0.59"; and, Washington, DC: 1.33". A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts remains on track for the region. Meanwhile, ENSO and teleconnections developments have continued to evolve toward a scenario where a milder February may now be more likely than a colder one. During February, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly will likely average 0.00°C to +0.75°C. The most recent 6-week moving average is +0.52°C. During February, both the AO and EPO will likely remain predominantly positive. The AO has been positive on 75% days this winter to date, including 68% during which it was +1.000 or above. This ENSO-teleconnections combination typically favors a warmer than normal February. Late yesterday (18z GEFS) and overnight (0z EPS/0z and 6z GEFS) now show the trough shifting to the west and potential ridge development in the East near the end of their timeframes. In addition, the CFSv2 has been steadily evolving toward a milder solution in the East. Most recent CFSv2 forecasts: The CFS has been getting warmer and warmer for February with each run. Now that we are at the tail end of January, the CFS holds more weight. Based on the latest ensembles, the ugly pattern continues at least through the 1st 2 weeks of February..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: 35F Sprinkles in air Wasn’t today supposed to be the great coastal snow storm? I think I read that on this forum... Lol. Looks silly in hindsight.zero cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Don Bluewave, it's amazing how the LR keeps showing signs of improvement only to push back or evaporate the look. I would love to understand what is keeping the AK trough and or Hawaii ridge in place. Hopefully we at least get a decent period similar to last March, but the consistent bad pattern for snow is frustrating and interesting at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I still think our chances will go up for snow around the 5th. The airmass will greatly improve. Signs of the trough pulling back west between the 10-15 of February. But that’s so far out in time it will probably changed. I continue to like the disruptions to the Pv we are seeing for February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Mjo won’t rule the roost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 @bluewave great post a few days ago about a stronger wave in p1 to disrupt the Pv/vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random. AN and BN days should average out, right? This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period. This streak could have begun on any one of those days. And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings) could have experienced this event. I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or 100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random. There must be more reasons to reduce this. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave great post a few days ago about a stronger wave in p1 to disrupt the Pv/vortex. I like HM but he has busted very badly so far. He called for a very cold and snowy December and January with massive -EPO and +PNA blocking, he also called for a continuation of cold/snow through February. It hasn’t been a good winter for him at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: I like HM but he busted very badly so far. He called for a very cold and snowy December and January with massive -EPO and +PNA blocking, he also called for a continuation of cold/snow through February. It hasn’t been a good winter for him at all Anyone that has gone cold and snowy for this winter has had it rough. My point of posting his tweet is that I agree with him. Does it mean 40 inch February for Knyc? No! All I’m saying is I don’t think February will be a all out disaster. (like January) IMO February should offer some chances. It was obvious last week (I posted such) that January was toast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 24 minutes ago, CIK62 said: If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random. AN and BN days should average out, right? This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period. This streak could have begun on any one of those days. And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings) could have experienced this event. I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or 100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random. There must be more reasons to reduce this. Any thoughts? 30 year averages are rising. It has been exceptionally warm in Europe and the warmth is likely to continue for some time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 I just think the Pv will corporate as we enter February. We could see a more of a La Niña @Isotherm look mid month but the cold air will be around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: Root for the transient -NAO near the start of February to help us out. We have had surprises in the past around these brief -NAO episodes. While it’s no guarantee, at least it’s better than we have seen all winter so far from the NAO. Agree. That 5-8 timeframe is probably the best look we had all winter. The ridge in central Canada moves into Greenland with a decent pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agree. That 5-8 timeframe is probably the best look we had all winter. The ridge in central Canada moves into Greenland with a decent pacific. I’m willing to bet we’re going to produce during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: If Moscow has really gone 60 consecutive days with AN T's and we are living in a world with a static 30-Year Normal, then the odds of this happening at random must be near 10^17/10^5 or 10^12 to 1 against happening at random. AN and BN days should average out, right? This is because 2^60 is of the order 10^17 and there are on the order of 10^4 days in a 30 year period. This streak could have begun on any one of those days. And further reduce the now 10^12 by 10^2 for let's say any area on the surface of the earth (comprising 1% of the surface---of course Moscow itself isn't the only area that experienced this event so we include the surroundings) could have experienced this event. I am left with 10^10 or 100^9 or 100 Billion to 1 that we should hear about any such event happening anywhere in the world at random. There must be more reasons to reduce this. Any thoughts? Moscow has not had a day with a departure of less than +10 since December 4th. They averaged +14.0 for December, and so far, as of January 25th, they are averaging +21.6 for January. Their January minimum is 20F as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Wow nobody discussing today's rainstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 its ending already in far southern nj moving fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow nobody discussing today's rainstorm Who wants rain although I’m happy I’m getting a free car wash my car was full of salt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Over 1" here. Cold, windy rain. 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow nobody discussing today's rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 4 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Easily. What is particularly scary is the fact that there is no cold air in sight, which is simply amazing. It is like winter just didn’t show up this year What is even more insane is the lack of cold air in Canada, Europe, AND Russia. Very seldom do we see this, at least not in my memory. It is shocking to me when people say cold air will be around? Where? Even in Canada it is much above normal. So even if that gets pushed here, it might bring us to normal. I honestly do not see February being below average so far. It just seems like the same people pushing the narrative. I really hope I am wrong. Hopefully we can get some cold nights so resorts can blow snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Fair amount of hyperbole going on. Even if the anomalies are positive, in the dead of winter, the temps are still cold. We have a crap pattern. Hopefully that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Fair amount of hyperbole going on. Even if the anomalies are positive, in the dead of winter, the temps are still cold. We have a crap pattern. Hopefully that changes. The anomalies are warm except for Alaska. Yes AN in Canada is still BN for us but to get a BN stretch here there needs to be normal to below normal in Canada where our cold comes from. Look at the stats for Europe and Russia for this year. Then look at ours. This is highly unusual. Can it change? Sure but arctic sea ice is still well below normal for the time of year. I wouldn’t bet on any sustained cold weather this year, all I am saying. No hyperbole. Until models or actual data start showing normal to BN temperatures don’t call it hyperbole because the only hyperbole right now is saying that we will have a blockbuster February for snow. If we do reach or exceed our average for snowfall this year it will be because of one massive storm that likely melts within a week. I hope we can salvage that much. That is still on the table. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now