Allsnow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just wanted to make a quick post about the anomalous warmth heading our way in January. Some of the analogs are starting to point to January 2007 regarding the magnitude of the warmth. I believe the reasons we have this potential is because of the strong PV and lack of a true El Niño. The following maps are the response we get in p4 and p5 of the mjo in a neutral ENSO. The eps and GEFS are in perfect sink with these responses. I can see temps in the urban corridor be well into the 60’s with this look. The storm track will be well west of our area into the Great Lakes. Going Forward I see very little change towards the end of January. I believe if we want to save February we need to start seeing strat hits on the Pv and the mjo wave, currently in p4, make it into the colder phases. If we continue to see the wave weaken into cod we very well might have a clunker winter on our hands. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 First flurries of the new year here this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: There’s no way the pattern will stay that warm for that long. My guess is by 2/1 it flips. TBH we may be better off just getting that miserable pattern in mid to late January vs what’s happened last few years where a massive SE ridge has occurred in February There's good evidence of a massive flip by February but the last few Febs have torched too so it's a toss up. Dec -SOI could lead to a colder Feb vs a +SOI last December. I see Jan 07 being thrown around and we know how Feb/March turned out. I'm leaning towards a mid to late Feb flip but an earlier flip is possible if the MJO progresses normally. March will be another cold/stormy month as the drier 11/12 and 01/02 patterns that led to warm Marches don't fit the active streak we're on not to mention the stagnant cold, blocky Marches of the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 No January thaw this year. We have been in thaw mode for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Hopefully the mjo having amplitude in the warm phases can help trigger some hits on the PV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Inland areas and maybe the coast should watch this weekends storm and next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Inland areas and maybe the coast should watch this weekends storm and next weeks storm. More mud and rain for us is my guess.... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 At least I can try out my new power washer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: JB note the MJO, after going into the COD may emerge back into 4-5 again at some point. If that happens we're on life support Phases 4-5 by around 1/10 is what many here have been talking about for days. There is very strong support on the guidance for such a move and at high amplitude. It's the reason the development of a period of ridging near 1/10 and for at least a week is now likely as per the major global operational models and their ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The period from 1/10 on looks exceptionally mild. In fact the new GFS which is normally cold biased in the longer range has temps going into the 60’s in the metro next weekend, 1/11, 1/12..... It does. Some MJO passages through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) at very high amplitude have produced a bout of near-record to record warmth. So one or two days where the temperature spikes is certainly within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, donsutherland1 said: It does. Some MJO passages through the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5) at very high amplitude have produced a bout of near-record to record warmth. So one or two days where the temperature spikes is certainly within the realm of possibility. Next weekend temps couple be well into the 60’s 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Phases 4-5 by around 1/10 is what many here have been talking about for days. There is very strong support on the guidance for such a move and at high amplitude. It's the reason the development of a period of ridging near 1/10 and for at least a week is now likely as per the major global operational models and their ensembles. I meant after this initial passage into 4/5...so 4/5 by 1/10, then collapse into COD and then back to 4/5 as we move forward. (as Allsnow notes-if that happens, we likely have a clunker on our hands) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I meant after this initial passage into 4/5...so 4/5 by 1/10, then collapse into COD and then back to 4/5 as we move forward. (as Allsnow notes-if that happens, we likely have a clunker on our hands) Ok. That makes more sense. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Ok. That makes more sense. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Kind of what this shows unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 That rapid SST increase north of Australia near MJO 4-5 may be why some models want to linger the forcing there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Kind of what this shows unfortunately It’s convection, so I wouldn’t put much stock in a rmm plot that far out. Most mjo plots don’t go out that far. The roundy has it in p7 by the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: That rapid SST increase north of Australia in MJO 5 may be why some models want to linger the forcing there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 38 cloudy and cold today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: North altantic looks worse. Epo region looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 One of the few busts on the colder side today 36F Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I meant after this initial passage into 4/5...so 4/5 by 1/10, then collapse into COD and then back to 4/5 as we move forward. (as Allsnow notes-if that happens, we likely have a clunker on our hands) If that actually happens (phase 4/5, then COD and back to 4/5 late month), that would cook the rest of this month and into at least the beginning of February... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Kind of what this shows unfortunately That's so far in the future, there's essentially no skill with any dynamical or statistical tool. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but such an outcome is far from a high confidence one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 This goes to show how extreme the heatwave driving those SST’s north of Australia has been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The MJO sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 January started with readings averaging above normal. The first week of the month will likely average 5° or more above normal across much of the region. A short-duration cold shot is possible late in the first week of January into part of the second week. This cold shot could provide a window of opportunity for at least some snowfall in the region and especially across central/upstate New York and New England. Afterward, a tendency for ridging with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing will likely develop during the latter part of the second week of the month and persist through mid-month. Based on the forecast strongly positive AO, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables). Such a scenario does not preclude the possibility of a light snow event across parts of the region during this timeframe, particularly during the January 6-9 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -7.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.653. This is the highest figure since December 23, 2016 when the AO was +3.807. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 10, but a temporary period of warming will very likely develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb toward the end of the first week of January. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted following the first week of the month. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On December 31, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.756 (RMM). The December 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.069. Since 1974, there were five cases when the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the December 20-31 period, as has been the case this year. The temperature anomalies were closely tied to how much time the MJO spent in Phase 8 during that timeframe. The mean temperature for January 1-15 for cases with more than 5 such days was 29.0° in New York City. The mean temperature for those with 5 or fewer such days was 36.1°. The overall 1981-2019 mean temperature for January 1-15 is 33.8°. January 2019 will very likely fall into the latter, warmer subset. At the start of January, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there was an implied 70% probability that New York City would have a warmer than normal January. Such a probability is exceptionally high for the start of a monthly period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Weekend storm is starting to get interesting for the whole area. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This goes to show how extreme the heatwave driving those SST’s north of Australia has been. That heatwave is creating a positive feedback loop with the SSTs there, warming them up even more, the convection just releases even more heat (latent heat) and keeps it going. Going to be hard to break at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 38 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Weekend storm is starting to get interesting for the whole area. For what? It’s an all rain event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Weekend storm is starting to get interesting for the whole area. How so? It’s a rain event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: For what? It’s an all rain event No it isnt. Why are you ignoring the trends on the euro ? H5 looks very good. Good ridge in the west and a sharp trough In the east. It will rain but it should turn to snow if the Euro is correct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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