Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Low to mid 50s out there. Well above forecasted highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Low to mid 50s out there. Well above forecasted highs You know it’s a warm pattern when we go above 50 on an E to NE flow in late January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 If you blindfolded me and took me outside today I would say it is mid April outside. Birds chirping on campus and I feel hot in my winter jacket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Here comes the euro for superbowl Sunday 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Way too far out but all the models have a coastal signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Here comes the euro for superbowl Sunday Wowzers. Can I see a clown map so I could at least dream? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Wowzers. Can I see a clown map so I could at least dream? Clown Map, as requested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: yikes 12z gfs cuts that day 9 threat now. Not for Ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 46 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: If you blindfolded me and took me outside today I would say it is mid April outside. Birds chirping on campus and I feel hot in my winter jacket. Feels very warm for January 24th, especially in the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 27 minutes ago, romba said: Clown Map, as requested not really a clown map IMO - its obvious the reason for this solution that HP to the north stays locked in feeding down cold enough air - some type of block is there on this particular model run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: not really a clown map IMO - its obvious the reason for this solution that HP to the north stays locked in feeding down cold enough air - some type of block is there on this particular model run Only 9 days away, It's as good as done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 48 minutes ago, romba said: Clown Map, as requested Like a woman who keeps leading you on but you never get a date in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 40 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Like a woman who keeps leading you on but you never get a date in. More than likely you never get in at all. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Made it to 57 here, 10 degrees above forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Made it to 50 here after am low of 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Made it to 57 here, 10 degrees above forecast. Just your run of the mill +7 January incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: If you blindfolded me and took me outside today I would say it is mid April outside. Birds chirping on campus and I feel hot in my winter jacket. That’s what I said. Got to 54 here. Felt like April (Although recent April’s have been more like 39 and raw drizzle) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Feels very warm for January 24th, especially in the sun. Yeah the sun was surprisingly comforting today wasn't it. I was standing on the south side of a wall and it was truly warm and pleasant, much more so than the calendar date would have implied. I got to 51 at home but saw 55 near KDXR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 21 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah the sun was surprisingly comforting today wasn't it. I was standing on the south side of a wall and it was truly warm and pleasant, much more so than the calendar date would have implied. I got to 51 at home but saw 55 near KDXR. It did feel good I am battling a flu like illness right now and that sun felt good between the coughing fits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 There's some legitimacy regarding next week's threat. There's a strong +PNA spike ahead of the storm and a Hudson block in place to try to force the storm south of us. We'll also be seeing the MJO 7 lag effects. However without a true -NAO block this can easily cut too. I'm leaning towards a coastal runner right now. It would take tremendous luck for us to score. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: There's some legitimacy regarding next week's threat. There's a strong +PNA spike ahead of the storm and a Hudson block in place to try to force the storm south of us. We'll also be seeing the MJO 7 lag effects. However without a true -NAO block this can easier cut too. I'm leaning towards a coastal runner right now. It would take tremendous luck for us to score. We have seen storms with a positive nao but its threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have seen storms with a positive nao but its threading the needle. You really need the PNA to deliver. I believe that's how we got the Feb 2006 KU storm. If the +PNA is too flat then you get a messy system and without an arctic airmass in place you're pretty much toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have seen storms with a positive nao but its threading the needle. We saw a ton of storms thread the needle this past decade. It’s not quite as rare as purported. In fact sometimes I think we score more on those than we do in ‘perfect setups’, since those are so rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Made it 50 today but dropping like a rock and down to 35 right now. Will probably see some frozen precip early tomorrow before changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Euro was leading the way on this with a better Pv orientation for the first week of February. The GEFS just caved in that direction. I’m definitely feeling more confident now for the cold shot around the 5th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Temperatures will likely run above normal through the remainder of January and into the start of February. Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC for the remainder of the month. Colder air could return late in the first week in February or just afterward. As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Boston would have a higher probability of receiving a moderate or significant snowfall than Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. A storm will likely bring 0.50" to 1.50" rain to Washington, DC to Boston tomorrow into perhaps part of Sunday. A moderate snowfall with perhaps some locally significant amounts could occur across upstate New York, northern New England, and parts of southern Ontario (north and east of Toronto). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was +10.32 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.237. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through February 1. Wave 2 activity could increase near the end of January leading to some warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the start of February. On January 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.812 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.109. The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. That would surpass the 38.6° monthly temperature from 1949 to make 2020 the 9th warmest January on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Down to 28 now from a high of 50 at 3pm only 6 hours ago. Clear skies, calm wind and snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njshore Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: There's some legitimacy regarding next week's threat. There's a strong +PNA spike ahead of the storm and a Hudson block in place to try to force the storm south of us. We'll also be seeing the MJO 7 lag effects. However without a true -NAO block this can easily cut too. I'm leaning towards a coastal runner right now. It would take tremendous luck for us to score. NAO is projected to be negative around the 1st of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Last word for the night. The EURO is 18" for Feb. 02. When I wake up tomorrow.................Where Is It? "Oh Eban!, Is It Really Me"?......... or just these idiot computer models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 6 hours ago, gravitylover said: Yeah the sun was surprisingly comforting today wasn't it. I was standing on the south side of a wall and it was truly warm and pleasant, much more so than the calendar date would have implied. I got to 51 at home but saw 55 near KDXR. Definitely a nice day to enjoy before the washout tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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