Uniblab Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: He has less credibility than all of the mets here, and less than most of the amateurs. I don't know much about this stuff, but I wouldn't be surprised if you don't need a snow shovel or a swimsuit.....just a raincoat ( an insulated one ). Or a blend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 58 minutes ago, CIK62 said: READY SET GO Put on your swimsuits or man the snow shovels? JB is stressing the fact that the EURO Weeklies have 40" of Snow for us over the next 46 days, but the OP has none for the first 10 days of this period. This would then be an inch per day affair. Anyone remember what the weeklies were for the last 46 days to date? Currently we have 4.8", say half of the normal. That was the control. The control is, to be charitable, not the best guide for such forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 hours ago, doncat said: Nice UHI night... 27° here vs. 40° at KNYC. 28 imby this morning...I wonder how cold it would have been 150 years ago when they started keeping records...hardly any uhi around central park back then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: 28 imby this morning...I wonder how cold it would have been 150 years ago when they started keeping records...hardly any uhi around central park back then... There's a good book on this I bought at the Bronx Zoo years ago called Manahatta; talks about the island before it was a mega city or even close; Canal St used to cross a canal, the water supply was a fresh water pond in lower Manhattan IIRC, possibly called Wreck Pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Huge difference in the GEPS and GEFS in the LR. Looks like the GEFS wants to put the ridge over Hawaii once again while GEPS wants a nice EPO ridge. I do not have the EPS past day 10 so do not know what it shows. The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe Thanks. You would think we would get at least one good 2 week period. With the exception of 01/02 and 97/98 we had a pattern relaxation. Unreal. Pattern changes but the results stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: There's a good book on this I bought at the Bronx Zoo years ago called Manahatta; talks about the island before it was a mega city or even close; Canal St used to cross a canal, the water supply was a fresh water pond in lower Manhattan IIRC, possibly called Wreck Pond. I think it was called collect pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC is currently the 9th warmest January with a week to go. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 43.2 0 2 1990 41.4 0 - 1950 41.4 0 3 2006 40.9 0 4 1913 40.8 0 5 1937 40.2 0 - 1933 40.2 0 6 1998 40.0 0 7 2002 39.9 0 8 1880 39.2 0 9 2020 39.0 8 10 1949 38.6 0 You would prob be near the top 5 if this week did not happen. Got the p7 response without a lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 20 minutes ago, Uniblab said: I think it was called collect pond. You may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe If you were a betting person, which way would you lean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: If you were a betting person, which way would you lean? its going to be all about "timing" of HP to the north and the models are showing an active southern stream of one storm after another for the next few weeks - last weekend we had great timing with a fresh injection of cold air - immediately followed by a system to the west creating an over running setup before the cold air could escape. Next weekends storm around Feb 1st- 3rd will be another system which will depend on the HP to the north building in and when the forecasted Miller A type system approaches from the south - the track looks good BUT the positioning of the HP to the north and its strength is critical in this situation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe This winter my money is on the catastrophe. Which of course will just be a continuation of the current 34 day catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its going to be all about "timing" of HP to the north and the models are showing an active southern stream of one storm after another for the next few weeks - last weekend we had great timing with a fresh injection of cold air - immediately followed by a system to the west creating an over running setup before the cold air could escape. Next weekends storm around Feb 1st- 3rd will be another system which will depend on the HP to the north building in and when the forecasted Miller A type system approaches from the south - the track looks good BUT the positioning of the HP to the north and its strength is critical in this situation Thank you for the explanation--much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 59 minutes ago, uncle W said: 28 imby this morning...I wonder how cold it would have been 150 years ago when they started keeping records...hardly any uhi around central park back then... During the Winter of 1780 the waters of NY Harbor froze over completely (I'm hoping you have some kind of research on that). Troops were able to walk heavy cannons over the river from Manhattan to NJ. Think of how cold that winter must have been around NYC for that to happen. My guess would be the monthly average during one of the Met winter months or maybe a couple of them had to be 15° or below. If anything like that happened now it would be heralded as the end of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I'm just looking for a storm. A good old fashioned coastal wind up. Maybe it will be powerful enough to kink the flow for future events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Anybody notice the air look disgusting today? At least a layer above the surface but below the tops of the tallest bldgs, i.e. 1 WTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 MJO on the euro and GEFS goes into the COD and possibly re emerging into 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: You may be right. I think that was just south of the courthouse at 111 centre street, now a small park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 51 right now but with the sunshine and calm winds it feels like it’s in the 60’s, I’m out here in a t-shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Looks like I'll hit 50F today without a problem. Let the torch roll on, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: During the Winter of 1780 the waters of NY Harbor froze over completely (I'm hoping you have some kind of research on that). Troops were able to walk heavy cannons over the river from Manhattan to NJ. Think of how cold that winter must have been around NYC for that to happen. My guess would be the monthly average during one of the Met winter months or maybe a couple of them had to be 15° or below. If anything like that happened now it would be heralded as the end of the world. Wow, very interesting. That was a brutal Winter indeed, the same one in fact where Washington set up camp in Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 yikes 12z gfs cuts that day 9 threat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 54 minutes ago, Snow88 said: MJO on the euro and GEFS goes into the COD and possibly re emerging into 2. What does this mean in weenie terms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 10 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: yikes 12z gfs cuts that day 9 threat now. Canadian different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 16 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: yikes 12z gfs cuts that day 9 threat now. No 50/50 low, No -NAO block, it can easily amp and cut, nothing to stop it 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: During the Winter of 1780 the waters of NY Harbor froze over completely (I'm hoping you have some kind of research on that). Troops were able to walk heavy cannons over the river from Manhattan to NJ. Think of how cold that winter must have been around NYC for that to happen. My guess would be the monthly average during one of the Met winter months or maybe a couple of them had to be 15° or below. If anything like that happened now it would be heralded as the end of the world. Yeah, January 1780 was probably the coldest month on record since the settlers arrived. https://books.google.com/books?id=mon_ivVXUY4C&pg=PA60&lpg=PA60&dq=philadelphia+area+weather+book+january+1780&source=bl&ots=uQqtI1kkA1&sig=ACfU3U3Knse60FfcmGIdLevsstiIuJyzDQ&hl=en&ppis=_e&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi-lJGx3JznAhWlV98KHe_BDLcQ6AEwCnoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=philadelphia area weather book january 1780&f=false 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 32 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: yikes 12z gfs cuts that day 9 threat now. And 18z could have it something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 The coldest December on record in NYC is Dec 1831... NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day... day max...min...snow...depth... 01... 32.....23.....T.......1" 02... 32.....23.....0.......1" 03... 26.....22.....0.......1" 04... 30.....20.....2"......3" 05... 25.....14.....0.......3" 06... 25.....15.....0.......3" 07... 26.....14.....0.......3" 08... 28.....20.....0.......3" 09... 32.....24.....0.......3" 10... 30.....20.....0.......2" 11... 35.....20.....0.......1" 12... 27.....18.....0.......1" 13... 25.....16.....0.......1" 14... 23.....17.....1"......2" 15... 21.....13.....2"......4" 16... 25.....11.....0.......4" 17... 26.....11.....T.......4" 18... 17.......9.....0.......4" 19... 26.....18.....0.......4" 20... 26.....18.....0.......4" 21... 38.....24.....0.......2" 22... 24.....10.....0.......2" 23... 24.......8.....0.......2" 24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain... 25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas... 26... 30.....20.....1"......3" 27... 25.....18.....0.......3" 28... 29.....21...10"....13" 29... 33.....24.....0.....13" 30... 24.....13.....0.....13" 31... 32.....18.....2"....13" http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, uncle W said: The coldest December on record in NYC is Dec 1831... NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day... day max...min...snow...depth... 01... 32.....23.....T.......1" 02... 32.....23.....0.......1" 03... 26.....22.....0.......1" 04... 30.....20.....2"......3" 05... 25.....14.....0.......3" 06... 25.....15.....0.......3" 07... 26.....14.....0.......3" 08... 28.....20.....0.......3" 09... 32.....24.....0.......3" 10... 30.....20.....0.......2" 11... 35.....20.....0.......1" 12... 27.....18.....0.......1" 13... 25.....16.....0.......1" 14... 23.....17.....1"......2" 15... 21.....13.....2"......4" 16... 25.....11.....0.......4" 17... 26.....11.....T.......4" 18... 17.......9.....0.......4" 19... 26.....18.....0.......4" 20... 26.....18.....0.......4" 21... 38.....24.....0.......2" 22... 24.....10.....0.......2" 23... 24.......8.....0.......2" 24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain... 25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas... 26... 30.....20.....1"......3" 27... 25.....18.....0.......3" 28... 29.....21...10"....13" 29... 33.....24.....0.....13" 30... 24.....13.....0.....13" 31... 32.....18.....2"....13" http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf Definitely climate change at work. /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 It takes almost impossibly good luck for a storm not to cut west of us or be a hugger if there’s no blocking north of us or a PNA ridge that forces the storm track to go to our south. Both of those factors are unfavorable for at least the next week. Without those, I’m not really interested in any threat. It’ll probably transition into a cutter closer in like the incoming storm tomorrow which looked better early this week. We may luck out with a cold air shot and incoming SWFE like last week, but that was generally a minor event anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now