MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: Obv too fast, it does not happen that quickly but it`s not that far off from where the models are close too. FWIW, it still doesn`t work for us. Bad air mass, but it`s not like it went back to a ridge in the S/E. The trough did show up, however Canada wrecked the entire idea. This doesnt look bad at all. Cmc is always trending towards this solution. Models responding to phase 7 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Thanks. I get it, people want results in there backyard. I’m just as frustrated as everyone. We are basically kicking 2 weeks of peak snow climo. @Rjay put it best by saying we flip to just another trashy pattern. I tried to tell @Snow88 and @Mersky, but it was like talking to a brick wall. What did you tell me ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What did you tell me ? The airmass would be too warm for snow in Brooklyn ny. Their was literally 2 pages worth of you arguing with me that it was cold enough and webb said that’s a cold look in Hilton head. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: The airmass would be too warm for snow in Brooklyn ny For when ? Having the pna in our favor is a big step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: For when ? Having the pna in our favor is a big step in the right direction. The next two weeks. And no it’s not when the airmass is putrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: For when ? Having the pna in our favor is a big step in the right direction. Anthony the pos PNA is mitigated by that Neg in Alaska , the air that is being being forced through W Canada is PAC air, it warms Canada.The PNA is not connected to the Arctic region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Anthony the pos PNA is mitigated by that Neg in Alaska , the air that is being being forced through W Canada is PAC air, it warms Canada.The PNA is not connected to the Arctic region. But we have been screwed so many times by the pacific so at least having in our favor isnt a bad thing. We just need the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The next two weeks. And no it’s not when the airmass is putrid Okay we shall see It does look stormy though. Hopefully we cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, PB-99 said: Anthony the pos PNA is mitigated by that Neg in Alaska , the air that is being being forced through W Canada is PAC air, it warms Canada.The PNA is not connected to the Arctic region. Yes. The only reason it’s not 50’s and rain is because of the pna ridge. This is the end of December 2019 pattern with a better pac. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Anthony the pos PNA is mitigated by that Neg in Alaska , the air that is being being forced through W Canada is PAC air, it warms Canada.The PNA is not connected to the Arctic region. I agree, without the AO/NAO or EPO block, the PNA itself is helpless. It's true a positive PNA can help us avoid a full out torch but without any support from other indices, were stuck in this pattern. Most of Canada is above normal now as the cold air retreats back to Alaska and the Arctic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 We have a few chances on the models and ensembles moving forward. So what if they turn into rainstorms. What else do we have to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The last few days I have been posting how the airmass is putrid for these storms. It’s a product of the vortex moving into Ak and the cold on the other side of the globe. If we had blocking all it would be doing is blocking a pac airmass. At the end of the eps and Geps a piece of the cold breaks off and enters the conus around the 5th. Is this correct? Idk. February will go the way the Pv goes. If the Pv moves out of ak the ao will improve. The ridge in central might move into Greenland around the 5th also. Which will be pushed out by the vortex. Nice post. It really looks like the MJO 3 in mid-December kicked off this extreme +EPO. Also notice how the record MJO 4-6 in January seemed to reinforce this pattern. Maybe we’ll need a strong enough phase 1 at some point in February to reverse this. But there could be other variables that could maintain the +EPO or change it more negative as move though February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Euro and gefs wants to send the MJO into the COD after phase 7. Maybe that will be our best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro and gefs wants to send the MJO into the COD after phase 7. Maybe that will be our best shot. COD is which phases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Nice post. It really looks like the MJO 3 in mid-December kicked off this extreme +EPO. Also notice how the record MJO 4-6 in January seemed to reinforce this pattern. Maybe we’ll need a strong enough phase 1 at some point in February to reverse this. But there could be other variables that could maintain the +EPO or change it more negative as move though February. Yep. It’s been a combination of a lot of different things that hurt this winter. The Pv that coupled with the strat was a bigger factor then I anticipated. Going forward I think if we see the vortex weaken and move out we will enter more of a sustained cold pattern. But at this point I need to see that to believe it lol. It’s a shame too because we finally got a nino response with a +pna. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro and gefs wants to send the MJO into the COD after phase 7. Maybe that will be our best shot. I don`t like the look of that at all. Soooo many robust members into 5 and then 6 here man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I don`t like the look of that at all. Soooo many robust members into 5 and then 6 here man. That will continue to correct and loop back towards 8. It’s picking up on a kelvin wave in 5. They move quickly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That will continue to correct and loop back towards 8. It’s picking up on a kelvin wave in 5. They move quickly. Can we get back there in about a week on the Ry / Plots Early Feb ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Can we get back there in about a week on the Ry / Plots Early Feb ? The roundy plots have the kelvin weakening and moving closer to the colder phases. Then around feb 10-15 we are in p1/2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 8:12 PM, Isotherm said: Thanks, Chris. In addition to that warm pool to which you describe, another issue, IMO, was the transport of momentum generally south of the equator w/ that intraseasonal MJO passage last February. Note the z850 zonal wind anomalies; most of which were directed south of the equator [circa 5-S latitude], so we didn't benefit as much in the northern hemisphere. Indeed - My total snowfall after February 15th last winter was 6.9", while the entire Dec 1-Feb 14th period featured 2.8". Certainly an improvement - though not to a very favorable regime - but better than nothing. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this season evolves. In the spirit of self-reflection/verification, I simply wanted to inject my two-cents, in that the primary issue here, AAM/MJO wise, is the partitioning of momentum predominantly into the S Hemisphere. I cited and broached this issue on January 3rd, in reference to last year's distorted MJO-7-8 response in late winter. As it turned out, this year's response wasn't too dissimilar. So it was very much foreseeable from my standpoint. Note on the MJO u-div and also the convection cross-section, the preponderance of the momentum is directed southward. Additionally, the anomalous AAM spike is a function, partially of the MJO-tropical component, but also the intense frictional and mountain torque production. But note the partitioning of that torque activity; again, principally in the southern hemisphere. This is therefore insufficient as it pertains to the induction of material stratospheric - and by extension - tropospheric vortex deceleration/diminution. As such, the resultant z500 is a distorted conglomeration of Nino-esque and Nina-esque features in the northern hemisphere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The roundy plots have the kelvin weakening and moving closer to the colder phases. Then around feb 10-15 we are in p1/2. Maybe I can salvage the Feb forecast. The issue will be if the 1st 10 days get really far ahead the back 18 will not be able to erase it. It was the only month D-M I went below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: As defined by the 1981-2010 climate normals it is. bluewave you seem like a bright guy so offering this up more so you know in the future. 'climate normals' is a term of art and is different from 'normal'. 'climate normal' is just a synonym for "average" or "arithmetic mean", but applied to a specific period of time. Generally in climatology when we speak of "normal" in the sense you're using it, we mean conditions that are within 1STDEV of the mean (most climate statistics in most locations are roughly normally distributed, so this conceptually works). In other words, it is common for NY to have below average snow, or above average snow, but still within the "normal" range. A year like 1997-1998, on the other hand, was both below average and not normal. I am aware meterologists use below normal as a shorthand for below average b/c of the NWS terminology and to make it easier to communicate to the public, but it's not a rigorous way to describe it and tends to blur the difference between events that are extraordinary and events that are typical. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: bluewave you seem like a bright guy so offering this up more so you know in the future. 'climate normals' is a term of art and is different from 'normal'. 'climate normal' is just a synonym for "average" or "arithmetic mean", but applied to a specific period of time. Generally in climatology when we speak of "normal" in the sense you're using it, we mean conditions that are within 1STDEV of the mean (most climate statistics in most locations are roughly normally distributed, so this conceptually works). In other words, it is common for NY to have below average snow, or above average snow, but still within the "normal" range. A year like 1997-1998, on the other hand, was both below average and not normal. I am aware meterologists use below normal as a shorthand for below average b/c of the NWS terminology and to make it easier to communicate to the public, but it's not a rigorous way to describe it and tends to blur the difference between events that are extraordinary and events that are typical. This is a very confused communication of statistics. In statistics, a normal distribution includes 68% of the observations falling within 1 standard deviation of the mean. However, Bluewave was specifically employing the term, "climate normal" which signifies an average over a given time frame. https://scied.ucar.edu/blog/what’s-new-climate-normal The average snowfall for the given time period in question was as he stated. So, I fail to see the issue with his post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Isotherm said: This is a very confused communication of statistics. In statistics, a normal distribution includes 68% of the observations falling within 1 standard deviation of the mean. However, Bluewave was specifically employing the term, "climate normal" which signifies an average over a given time frame. https://scied.ucar.edu/blog/what’s-new-climate-normal The average snowfall for the given time period in question was as he stated. So, I fail to see the issue with his post. Cool, but you have issues with language and I'm clarifying for the people in the thread who don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Drz1111 said: Cool, but you have issues with language and I'm clarifying for the people in the thread who don't. Good luck selling any of that to the general public and having them understand it, especially with that attitude. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, Isotherm said: As such, the resultant z500 is a distorted conglomeration of Nino-esque and Nina-esque features in the northern hemisphere. And we end up with very blase weather pattern that's not exactly a torch but too warm to give us snow. So basically typical March in late Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The 12z euro has two costal storms next week in perfect locations that are 100% rain for the metro. Can’t make this up lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The 12z euro has two costal storms next week in perfect locations that are 100% rain for the metro. Can’t make this up lol Its pretty sad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Its pretty sad I hope they miss at this point. Would rather it dry instead of wet and muddy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The roundy plots have the kelvin weakening and moving closer to the colder phases. Then around feb 10-15 we are in p1/2. I think if there is to be a change it’s post 2/15, more like late/end of February. Vortex over AK setups just don’t flip overnight, they always stay longer than expected, then you have to seed Canada with cold again and scour out the PAC maritime air....that’s takes some time. Come March, with the wavelength change, IO forcing is actually cold, not warm anymore, so if we have IO forcing at that point, I’d expect a cold March, yet again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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