January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[doncat]

Low temp here on Tues was 17°...radiating well this am at 20° ...Not much, but nothing else to talk about. 

[Rtd208]

Another cold morning out there.

Current temp 21

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averging 39degs., or about 6.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.9[39.3].       Should be about  +6.8[39.2] by the 30th.

My Kudos to AccuWeather for changing their January Outlook early in the month from +1 to +6.

No snow anywhere w/o any 32 degree days for the most part or the whole part.    

The first 6 days of February are averaging 41degs. or +8.      Dog stops chasing its tail February 08?

28* here at 6am.   30* by 9am.      33* by Noon.      41* by 3pm        43* at 4pm.       39* at 6pm.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

15F at 6am

 

[ForestHillWx]

15/9. I didn't expect it to get this cold with last nights cirrus layer. 

[the_other_guy]

46 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days are averging 39degs., or about 6.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.9[39.3].       Should be about  +6.8[39.2] by the 30th.

My Kudos to AccuWeather for changing their January Outlook early in the month from +1 to +6.

No snow anywhere w/o any 32 degree days for the most part or the whole part.    

The first 6 days of February are averaging 41degs. or +8.      Dog stops chasing its tail February 08?

28* here at 6am.

Looks like we can officially move from AN to Torch for the first week of February

Very sad. Coldest part of the winter and No cold air in sight

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

I'm talking about a regression to the mean. We've had an incredible amount of 30+ inch winters in the last 20 years. We had 5 straight 30+ inch winters before last year. Under 20 inches once in the last 11 years, under 25 inches twice and these are the low end Central Park measurements, all of this in above normal temperature winters outside of a few exceptions. This isn't normal. It was inevitable that we'd string together consecutive stinkers and not luck out with perfect storm tracks several times a winter.

BTW, last year ended up fairly close to normal with a late season charge. This year seems to be following a similar script continuing the 2010s theme of stuck weather patterns. We might get a few more winters like this coming up in the next few years if the pattern holds, could be entering an overdue snow drought period.

I think the shock of what has been going on for 20 years is finally setting in

We have been gradually getting warmer throughout the AN snow

Now the snowy pattern has eased and it really is apparent how much of our “winter” we lost.

On a 15 degree morning, when you look out and see nothing even close to resembling that for the next 2 weeks in January and February, you know something is wrong

[donsutherland1]

Some quick morning thoughts...

It has been a warm and dry January so far in the Mid-Atlantic region. Through January 21, precipitation in New York City is 1.06" (1.47" below normal) and in Philadelphia it is 1.00" (1.05" below normal). The combination of limited precipitation and limited cold has led to very low monthly snowfall amounts so far (2.3" in New York City and 0.2" in Philadelphia).

A storm will likely bring a moderate to perhaps significant amount of precipitation (0.50" - 1.50") to the region this weekend, but the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic region will likely see little or no snow. Philadelphia will likely finish January with less than 1" snow for the season and New York City will likely finish with less than 6".

As January nears an end, there remains no credible evidence of the kind of "shock" that could bring significant change to the hemispheric circulation. The Polar Vortex is likely to remain strong with a predominant positive AO. The EPO looks to remain positive. The stratosphere looks to remain cool.

As a result, February could begin on a mild note. Cold could still arrive near the end of the first week of February or just afterward, but such cold likely won't be severe. At the same time, the risk that February as a whole could wind up on the warm side of normal has increased. That's not yet the most likely outcome, but it's a scenario that cannot be dismissed.

[bluewave]

NYC is on track to reach the last week of January with the 5th lowest snowfall since 2000. They are a little below the same time last year.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 24	Missing Count
1	2007-01-24	0.4	0
2	2000-01-24	2.5	0
3	2008-01-24	2.9	0
4	2002-01-24	3.5	0
5	2020-01-24	4.8	4
6	2013-01-24	5.1	0
7	2019-01-24	7.1	0
8	2012-01-24	7.2	0
9	2015-01-24	7.3	0
10	2017-01-24	10.1	0
11	2006-01-24	11.7	0
12	2009-01-24	12.0	0
13	2010-01-24	13.2	0
-	2003-01-24	13.2	0
14	2018-01-24	17.9	0
15	2005-01-24	18.1	0
16	2001-01-24	21.2	1
17	2014-01-24	26.5	0
18	2004-01-24	26.8	0
19	2016-01-24	27.9	0
21	2011-01-24	36.1	0

 

[Drz1111]

What is crazy about the bitching on this thread is that six of the last 20 years have had less snow, YTD, than this year.  We’re not even more than 1SD below the mean.  This is, mathematically, a normal year, albeit below average.

[MJO812]

This is how you know the winter has sucked.

[bluewave]

NYC will need a KU snowstorm to reach normal seasonal snowfall. 
 

NYC 2.9”- 6.5”snowfall by January 24th since 1950 and seasonal total snowfall

2008....2.9....11.9

2002....3.5.....3.5

1952....3.7....19.7

1951....3.8....9.3

1959...4.3....13.0

1997...4.5....10.0

1963....4.7....16.3

2020....4.8......?

1983...4.9.....27.2....KU

2013...5.1.....26.1....KU

1989....5.3....8.1

1980....5.5....12.8

1956....5.5.....33.5....KU

1999....6.5.....12.7

 

 

[Drz1111]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC will need a KU snowstorm to reach normal seasonal snowfall. 

That's not what "normal" means. 

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

That's not what "normal" means. 

I believe the normal refers to a bare statistical sum. Cold season experience, with one storm bringing a sum up to normal values on, a let’s say, March 19th certainly does equate to a below normal cold season experience. As always ....

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

That's not what "normal" means. 

As defined by the 1981-2010 climate normals it is.

Averages are based on the 30 year period 1981-2010

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf

Season
   25.8  corrected 
   

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data

What are Climate Normals?

In the strictest sense, a "normal" of a particular variable (e.g., temperature) is defined as the 30-year average. For example, the minimum temperature normal in January for a station in Chicago, Illinois, would be computed by taking the average of the 30 January values of monthly averaged minimum temperatures from 1981 to 2010. Each of the 30 monthly values was in turn derived from averaging the daily observations of minimum temperature for the station. In practice, however, much more goes into NCEI's Climate Normals product than simple 30-year averages. Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and suspect data values. In addition, Climate Normals include quantities other than averages such as degree days, probabilities, standard deviations, etc. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States.

 

Why does NOAA produce Climate Normals?

 

What are Climate Normals used for?

Meteorologists and climatologists regularly use Climate Normals for placing recent climate conditions into a historical context. NOAA's Climate Normals are commonly seen on local weather news segments for comparisons with the day's weather conditions. In addition to weather and climate comparisons, Climate Normals are utilized in seemingly countless applications across a variety of sectors. These include regulation of power companies, energy load forecasting, crop selection and planting times, construction planning, building design, and many others.

[Allsnow]

I don’t think the mjo will be ruling the roost for February. It looks weak overall and perhaps closer to The end fo February we see the wave in P2 take over. 
 

February will be dictated by other factors such as the pac and weakening of the Pv. We need to get the vortex out of Ak. 

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

But you said MJO was going into 8-1-2 just 2 weeks ago

It’s going to get close to 8 then weaken into cod. The kelvin wave in p5 will loop back quickly as we go towards p2 by middle of February. 
 

I don’t think I was that far off with it. Unfortunately, other factors are going to mitigate the response we will have. The -mvp and Pv is basically killing our winter. All the cold is on the other side of the globe next week. If we didn’t see the Pv couple with the strat this would be a very snowy period. We would have a active stj with cold around. Instead we have a crap airmass with costal storms. 
 

If we are keeping tabs i did say the storm track would improve after the 20th. Most of the threats the next two weeks are taking good tracks for us. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

As defined by the 1981-2010 climate normals it is.

Averages are based on the 30 year period 1981-2010

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/nycnormals.pdf

Season
   25.1
   

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data

What are Climate Normals?

In the strictest sense, a "normal" of a particular variable (e.g., temperature) is defined as the 30-year average. For example, the minimum temperature normal in January for a station in Chicago, Illinois, would be computed by taking the average of the 30 January values of monthly averaged minimum temperatures from 1981 to 2010. Each of the 30 monthly values was in turn derived from averaging the daily observations of minimum temperature for the station. In practice, however, much more goes into NCEI's Climate Normals product than simple 30-year averages. Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and suspect data values. In addition, Climate Normals include quantities other than averages such as degree days, probabilities, standard deviations, etc. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States.

 

Why does NOAA produce Climate Normals?

 

What are Climate Normals used for?

Meteorologists and climatologists regularly use Climate Normals for placing recent climate conditions into a historical context. NOAA's Climate Normals are commonly seen on local weather news segments for comparisons with the day's weather conditions. In addition to weather and climate comparisons, Climate Normals are utilized in seemingly countless applications across a variety of sectors. These include regulation of power companies, energy load forecasting, crop selection and planting times, construction planning, building design, and many others.

 

Actually the 30 year normal for Central Park 1981-2010 was first published as 25.1 in January 2011.  However after numerous e-mails NOAA finally realized they did not calculate the 30 year average correctly and corrected the 30 year average for 1981-2010 in March 2014 to the correct 25.8 inches. Of course many places still post the incorrect 25.1 even 6 years after the fact.

[PB-99]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s going to get close to 8 then weaken into cod. The kelvin wave in p5 will loop back quickly as we go towards p2 by middle of February. 
 

I don’t think I was that far off with it. Unfortunately, other factors are going to mitigate the response we will have. The -mvp and Pv is basically killing our winter. All the cold is on the other side of the globe next week. If we didn’t see the Pv couple with the strat this would be a very snowy period. We would have a active stj with cold around. Instead we have a crap airmass with costal storms. 
 

If we are keeping tabs i did say the storm track would improve after the 20th. Most of the threats the next two weeks are taking good tracks for us. 

 

 

 I don`t think he realizes that when I said that we would go into 7 / 8 the MJO forecast was to circle in 6 and people bought it.

I mean when I said 7 / 8 this was the RIMM forecast

 

And as you said this is what has occurred.

 

 

I think they should go back and ask the posters why didn`t the MJO get stuck in p6 like they thought, but they will not. 

Sorry that`s a much better forecast than the idea that this would loop in p6 2 weeks ago in here. Sorry they didn`t get the response due to other factors, but that call was not the problem, nor was it incorrect considering what the RIMM plots showed. Weenies. 

The new forecast is to loop this back into 1 and 2 based on the Roundy Plots. But again, even though the new CFS RIMM`s are too progressive this morning, it still see a rotation into p8 , wasn`t like we made it up.

BTW, the CFS doesn`t see the temp Kelvin in p6 , I think it`s wrong, but others most def see`s what the Roundy Plots see in 2 weeks a weak signal back in 1 and 2 . 

 

 

And far as flipping around the 20th, some should go look at the departures from Jan 1 Jan 18 and the departures over the last 4 days, the SE ridge was erased like I said, the problem is it`s all temporary because of the AAM spike that NO ONE SAW coming. 

[NEG NAO]

59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think the mjo will be ruling the roost for February. It looks weak overall and perhaps closer to The end fo February we see the wave in P2 take over. 
 

February will be dictated by other factors such as the pac and weakening of the Pv. We need to get the vortex out of Ak. 

whats going to "rule the roost " in February is not so much the MJO- agreed - but the AO and NAO - each of these storms are taking tracks that many times deliver snowstorms here BUT one of the main ingredients is missing - the stronger HP to the north that stays locked in - with this pattern they escape need some type of blocking ,,,,,,,,,,

[Allsnow]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

whats going to "rule the roost " in February is not so much the MJO- agreed - but the AO and NAO - each of these storms are taking tracks that many times deliver snowstorms here BUT one of the main ingredients is missing - the stronger HP to the north that stays locked in - with this pattern they escape need some type of blocking ,,,,,,,,,,

The last few days I have been posting how the airmass is putrid for these storms. It’s a product of the vortex moving into Ak and the cold on the other side of the globe. If we had blocking all it would be doing is blocking a pac airmass. 
 

At the end of the eps and Geps a piece of the cold breaks off and enters the conus around the 5th. Is this correct? Idk. February will go the way the Pv goes. If the Pv  moves out of ak the ao will improve. The ridge in central might move into Greenland around the 5th also. Which will be pushed out by the vortex. 
 

 

[PB-99]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The last few days I have been posting how the airmass is putrid for these storms. It’s a product of the vortex moving into Ak and the cold on the other side of the globe. If we had blocking all it would be doing is blocking a pac airmass. 
 

At the end of the eps and Geps a piece of the cold breaks off and enters the conus around the 5th. Is this correct? Idk. February will go the way the Pv goes. If the Pv  moves out of ak the ao will improve. The ridge in central might move into Greenland around the 5th also. Which will be pushed out by the vortex. 
 

 

 

Hey man, you have been spot in here. I don`t care what Negative`s show up in the lakes and N/E in the L/R if you don`t eject the Vortex out of Alaska, you are just seeding a trough with crud air.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think the mjo will be ruling the roost for February. It looks weak overall and perhaps closer to The end fo February we see the wave in P2 take over. 
 

February will be dictated by other factors such as the pac and weakening of the Pv. We need to get the vortex out of Ak. 

A lot of our biggest snow events occurred when the wave collapsed in the circle. 

I think we have a better shot at blocking when the MJO isn't in control. My guess is that the PV starts taking shots after 1st week of February. Idk if a SSW will occur but it doesn't necessarily have to for us to go into a blocking pattern.

The long standing +NAO/AO will have to eventually reverse too but that probably won't happen until we see seasonal effects with changing wavelengths + the attacks on the PV. 

Late winter remains the best opportunity for us to get snows especially if the Nino subtropical jet sticks around.

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The last few days I have been posting how the airmass is putrid for these storms. It’s a product of the vortex moving into Ak and the cold on the other side of the globe. If we had blocking all it would be doing is blocking a pac airmass. 
 

At the end of the eps and Geps a piece of the cold breaks off and enters the conus around the 5th. Is this correct? Idk. February will go the way the Pv goes. If the Pv  moves out of ak the ao will improve. The ridge in central might move into Greenland around the 5th also. Which will be pushed out by the vortex. 
 

 

there would be cold enough air coming into this area from say a 1040 or higher HP in Quebec during late January into most of February that stays locked in as a storm takes the bench mark track - typical of northeast snowstorms

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A lot of our biggest snow events occurred when the wave collapsed in the circle. 

I think we have a better shot at blocking when the MJO isn't in control. My guess is that the PV starts taking shots after 1st week of February. Idk if a SSW will occur but it doesn't necessarily have to for us to go into a blocking pattern.

The long standing +NAO/AO will have to eventually reverse too but that probably won't happen until we see seasonal effects with changing wavelengths + the attacks on the PV. 

Late winter remains the best opportunity for us to get snows especially if the Nino subtropical jet sticks around.

Many of our significant snow storms occurred while the MJO was in the COD

[MJO812]

Gfs is quite stormy with 2 coastal chances but its warm ( mid range)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 

Actually the 30 year normal for Central Park 1981-2010 was first published as 25.1 in January 2011.  However after numerous e-mails NOAA finally realized they did not calculate the 30 year average correctly and corrected the 30 year average for 1981-2010 in March 2014 to the correct 25.8 inches. Of course many places still post the incorrect 25.1 even 6 years after the fact.

You are correct. The NWS in Upton never updated their page. But the 25.8 average shows up on the NCDC site.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-6EC204A7-8A43-4BEC-90BB-28F70C084E99.pdf

 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Hey man, you have been spot in here. I don`t care what Negative`s show up in the lakes and N/E in the L/R if you don`t eject the Vortex out of Alaska, you are just seeding a trough with crud air.

Thanks. I get it, people want results in there backyard. I’m just as frustrated as everyone. We are basically kicking 2 weeks of peak snow climo. @Rjay put it best by saying we flip to just another trashy pattern. 
 

I tried to tell @Snow88 and @Mersky, but it was like talking to a brick wall.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Many of our significant snow storms occurred while the MJO was in the COD

Yes, because other factors are controlling the pattern. 

[PB-99]

Obv too fast, it does not happen that quickly but it`s not that far off from where the models are close too.

 

FWIW, it still doesn`t work for us.

Bad air mass,  but it`s not like it went back to a ridge in the S/E.

The trough did show up, however Canada wrecked the entire idea.