January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[495weatherguy]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

So maybe the snowless winters of the 80s weren’t normal climo

As someone who grew up on LI in the 70’s and 80’s I can tell you this is what most winters were like.  
Countless times the snow went “north and west” of the Tappan Zee bridge.   The explanation given by the meteorologists on TV and radio was that LI was not conducive to snow.  There were “too many variables” working against LI to get one of those 2 foot storms frequently, like warm ocean air as a primary example.  
6 inches was a rarity then.  The 80’s has April of 82, which started to melt as soon as the clouds cleared, and Feb of 83, which was a huge storm, I remember almost 2 feet.  
Nothing really until 95/6.  That winter was colossal, “unheard of for our area”.  
Since the turn of the century, our winters have been unbelievable.  
Inevitably, they will return to the “normal” ranges 

[bluewave]

Our seasonal snowfall has become more variable since the early 90’s. NYC used to get snowfall close to normal on a regular basis before then. Mid 20’s snowfall seasons in NYC have become few and far between. Snowfall totals  of 20 or less and 30 or more are more frequent.

12-13....26.1

 

08-09....27.6

 

92-93....24.5

90-91....24.9

 

86-87....23.1

84-85....24.1

83-84....25.4

82-83....27.2

81-82....24.6

 

76-77....24.5

73-74....23.5

71-72....22.9

69-70....25.6
 

 

[the_other_guy]

what was the big storm in late 80s? Foot of snow or so. Thinking 1986 or 87

 

That was the biggest storm I first remember

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

what was the big storm in late 80s? Foot of snow or so. Thinking 1986 or 87

 

That was the biggest storm I first remember

Not many in NYC in the late 80's.

Jan 22, 1987 8.1 inches in the Park

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Who is to say 1700s and 1800s wasn’t normal. 
 

or maybe it just always changes century to century. Who knows

 

96 was crazy and we have def been spoiled since 2001

Absolutely.  Normal as defined by our limited time of recorded history.  
 

I was just repeating what all of the “Experts” claimed was the reasoning behind our limited snow.  
 

we had lots of winter days like today on Long Island back in the ‘70’s and ‘80’s

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

18 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

As someone who grew up on LI in the 70’s and 80’s I can tell you this is what most winters were like.  
Countless times the snow went “north and west” of the Tappan Zee bridge.   The explanation given by the meteorologists on TV and radio was that LI was not conducive to snow.  There were “too many variables” working against LI to get one of those 2 foot storms frequently, like warm ocean air as a primary example.  
6 inches was a rarity then.  The 80’s has April of 82, which started to melt as soon as the clouds cleared, and Feb of 83, which was a huge storm, I remember almost 2 feet.  
Nothing really until 95/6.  That winter was colossal, “unheard of for our area”.  
Since the turn of the century, our winters have been unbelievable.  
Inevitably, they will return to the “normal” ranges 

This is where people, I guess of a certain age (35-55) make that same mistake thinking the 70's and 80's were normal. They were the two least snowiest decades of the 150 years NYC has been keeping official records. When people say the 2000's aren't the norm it's true but neither was that 20 year period.

The 150 year average is 28.8 inches in Central Park. The 1970's and 1980's averaged 21.3 and 20.2 inches respectively ,and the 2000's and 2010's 32.1 and 36.9 so far. Both are way above and below the 28.8 inch 150 year average.

[PB-99]

When you start a FEB thread be sure to lead off with this.

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

When you start a FEB thread be sure to lead off with this.

 

 

 

 

Maybe but look at the timestamp.360 hours out. We all have been burned looking way in advance.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure where this one started but it's not even close to being true.

As Don already pointed out there was the 6.4 inches on Nov 15, 2018, NYC came close on March 3, 2019 with 5.0 and 4.0 the day before (I forget if that was one event that equaled 9.0 or two separate events) 8.4 inches on March 21, 2018, 9.8 inches on January 4 2018, 5.5 inches on April 2, 2018, 7.6 inches on March 14, 2017, 9.4 inches on Feb 9, 2017.

So in the last three years there's been six storms on the great heat island over 6 inches and a couple more of 5-6 inches. I know this winter has been disappointing so far but we can't start making stuff up.

The March 2019 events were two separate ones.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I understand

 

i hate “normal” temps and “normal” snow because record keeping doesn’t go back too far in reality

 

i know the 70s were cold and they even said an ice age was coming but I think it’s just normal fluctuations

i guess what I’m saying is that “normal” might not even exist 

 

starting from the 1940's the 10 year averages are

1. 1941-1950.....31.5
2. 1951-1960.....24.1
3. 1961-1970.....29.0
4. 1971-1980.....21.3
5. 1981-1990.....20.2
6. 1991-2000.....25.4
7. 2001-2010.....32.1
8. 2011-2020.....36.9 if no more snow falls until Dec 31 2020, perish the thought

The 150 year average is 28.8 so which decade from the above was normal for snowfall ? You could make the argument the 60's was, all of the others fall out of the range.

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

When you start a FEB thread be sure to lead off with this.

 

 

 

 

PIG over Alaska

[PB-99]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

PIG over Alaska

 

Relentless 

[PB-99]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe but look at the timestamp.360 hours out. We all have been burned looking way in advance.

Yes since Dec 22 and that will continue into early FEB.

 

btw, it`s day 10 - 15 and it matches the GEFS. 

 

 

[RedSky]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

PIG over Alaska

Check out Siberia, that's one tight polar vortex 

 

[ForestHillWx]

That's a cold look....for Anchorage. 

No worries for me, I love snow/cold as much as the rest, but if I can save some money on heating oil, so be it. 

[snowman19]

It looks like the rest of this month and the first 14 days of February (at the very least) are toast. I should have stuck with my initial guess of 2/15 or beyond for a true change. Now, I’m honestly thinking more like late February, if it ever even happens in February. You don’t just snap out of a vortex over Alaska look overnight. The one thing I’m sure about is come early to mid March a massive -NAO block will develop and last right through the end of April. It never fails.....

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

It looks like the rest of this month and the first 14 days of February (at the very least) are toast. I should have stuck with my initial guess of 2/15 or beyond for a true change. Now, I’m honestly thinking more like late February, if it ever even happens in February. You don’t just snap out of a vortex over Alaska look overnight. The one thing I’m sure about is come early to mid March a massive -NAO block will develop and last right through the end of April. It never fails.....

Happens every winter.

[snowman19]

13 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It sounds like DT (WxRisk) is about to throw in the towel on winter is his new "This Week in Weather" video

 

 

Why doesn’t he just throw in the towel right now instead of waiting until February like he wants to do? Once we’re into February, you have less than a month left of met winter (3/1). At that point it’s not even really a prediction anymore 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why doesn’t he just throw in the towel right now instead of waiting until February like he wants to do? Once we’re into February, you have less than a month left of met winter (3/1). At that point it’s not even really a prediction anymore 

Winter doesnt ended 3/1

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter doesnt ended 3/1

Yet every year the same people will always state that it ends March 1. This despite the fact 4 of the last 5 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest  month and 2 of the last 3 Marchs have been colder than February.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter doesnt ended 3/1

Met winter ends on 3/1, which is what I said, extend it to the Equinox and you get 19 more days after (3/19)....

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter doesnt ended 3/1

It ended 12/20 this year. 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yet every year the same people will always state that it ends March 1. This despite the fact 4 of the last 5 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest  month and 2 of the last 3 Marchs have been colder than February.

Yeah it's been wonderful. A ruined winter followed by a ruined early spring. I guess snow is snow even if it's gone the next day though those 4 March noreasters from a few years back were fun to track. 

Too bad the big 1/20 pattern change barely produced. 

[495weatherguy]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

what was the big storm in late 80s? Foot of snow or so. Thinking 1986 or 87

 

That was the biggest storm I first remember

I don't recall that one---The biggest storm I remember was 1983, February I believe.  I was in western Nassau

[495weatherguy]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I understand

 

i hate “normal” temps and “normal” snow because record keeping doesn’t go back too far in reality

 

i know the 70s were cold and they even said an ice age was coming but I think it’s just normal fluctuations

i guess what I’m saying is that “normal” might not even exist 

 

Truth

[495weatherguy]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This is where people, I guess of a certain age (35-55) make that same mistake thinking the 70's and 80's were normal. They were the two least snowiest decades of the 150 years NYC has been keeping official records. When people say the 2000's aren't the norm it's true but neither was that 20 year period.

The 150 year average is 28.8 inches in Central Park. The 1970's and 1980's averaged 21.3 and 20.2 inches respectively ,and the 2000's and 2010's 32.1 and 36.9 so far. Both are way above and below the 28.8 inch 150 year average.

Excellent point---I was only going by what I know.  Thanks for pointing that out.  What I don't understand is why it was hammered into our heads that NYC(absent the Bronx) and Long Island was not a good environment for snow?  Anyway, thanks for the info

[CIK62]

If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview.         This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter.  

DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA  with it.        When you are done doing that,  you can wipe your nose with it.       You might want to reverse that.

Another day older and deeper in do-doo.        Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here.    Bookend snowstorms,  a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs.     Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

   

[uncle W]

for reference purposes...NYC winter stats...

winter average temperature Dec-Feb...lowest minimum...coldest 30 day period... total snowfall...most snow in 30 days...4" snowfalls or biggest snowfall...

season......ave temp …...Min ...coldest 30 days... snowfall..most snow in 30 days..largest snowfalls...
1869-70..........34.5..........10...….......29.2...………..27.8"...………...15.8".………......5.0"...8.0"...6.0"...

1870-71..........30.9............0.............24.9...………...33.1"...………...28.0".…….........9.0"...5.0"...7.0"
1871-72..........29.3...........-2...….......28.3...……......14.1"...……….....4.9"..................3.0"........
1872-73..........28.3...........-1...….......26.5...………...60.3"...………...26.8"...……......18.0"...4.0"...6.0"...5.8"...4.8"...4.0"
1873-74..........34.0............3...….......30.9...………...36.9"...………...19.1"………...….5.0"...6.5"...5.0"...6.5"...7.5"
1874-75..........27.6...........-3...……....22.7...………...57.8"...………...18.0"...…..……10.0"...5.0"...4.0"...5.5"...4.0"...10.0" 
1875-76..........34.1............5...……....31.5...……......18.3"...………...14.8"......…...…11.0"
1876-77..........29.8............3.............23.2...………...40.4"...………...27.9".......……....4.3"...13.0"
1877-78..........33.3............7.............29.6...…………..8.1"...……….....8.1"......…...…..7.0"
1878-79..........29.2...........-4....…......22.9...………...35.7"...………...22.3"......……...13.0"
1879-80..........38.5............7....…......34.0...………...22.7"...…………..8.3"...………....4.0"...4.0"

1880-81..........26.6...........-6...…......22.1...………...35.5"...………...19.9"..…………..4.0"...6.5"...4.0"
1881-82..........34.5...........-6......…...28.9...………...31.4"...………...25.5"......….…….8.0"...9.0"
1882-83..........28.7............1......…...23.5...………...44.0"...………...15.1"......…..…....4.5"...9.0"...5.0"...8.0"...4.5"...4.0"...
1883-84..........30.2...........-1...……...24.2...………...43.1"...………...24.9".......….…….5.0"...7.6"...5.0"...4.5"...5.0"
1884-85..........28.6...........-3......…...20.8...………...34.2"...………...15.1"......………..4.0"...
1885-86..........30.0...........-4......…...21.5...………...20.8"...………...18.8"......….…….5.0"...4.0"...5.0"
1886-87..........30.2............4......…...25.6...………...32.9"...………...10.6"...……….….5.3"...4.0"...5.0"
1887-88..........28.7............0......…...21.6...………...45.6"...………...22.3"...…...……...5.5"...21.0"...
1888-89..........32.7............3......…...27.9...………...16.5"...…………..7.0"...................4.0"...........
1889-90..........37.9............7......…...35.6...………...24.3"...………...17.0"...……..........6.0"...6.0"...4.0"..

1890-91..........33.4............9......…...30.0...………...28.8"...………...11.4".........………7.0"...8.0"...
1891-92..........35.7............9......…...30.6...……......25.4"...………...12.2"......…….......6.0"...8.0"...
1892-93..........28.4............1......…...21.0...………...49.7"...………...23.1"......…..…....4.0"...6.0"...5.0"...9.1"...6.0"
1893-94..........32.2............1....……..28.8...………...36.1"...………...22.6"......……......6.5"...7.0"...4.0"...8.0"...
1894-95..........30.3...........-4......…...23.5...………...27.0"...……......17.0".........……...4.0"...4.0"...5.0"...
1895-96..........33.3...........-6......…...27.4...………...46.3"...………...32.0".........…….10.0"...4.0"...12.0"...4.5"...
1896-97..........32.7............6......…...28.8...………...43.6"...………...18.0"......……......5.0"...7.0"...6.0"...10.0"...8.5"...
1897-98..........36.5............8......…...34.2...………...21.1"...……….....8.9"...…………..5.0"
1898-99..........31.9...........-6......…...24.7...………...55.9"...………...26.5"......……….10.0"...6.0"...4.0"...6.5"...16.0"...
1899-00..........33.4............5......…...29.9...………...13.4"...………...11.9".........………6.1"...5.0"

1900-01..........31.7............4......…...26.4...…………..9.1"...………....8.8"...………......4.0"
1901-02..........32.0............8...….…..27.1...………...30.0"...………...20.8"............…..10.0"...4.0"...6.5"...
1902-03..........32.0............4......…...29.1...………...28.7"...………...14.4"............……6.3"...6.5"...4.0"...9.5"...
1903-04..........27.4...........-1......…...24.3...………...32.3"...………...14.4".........……...8.0"...4.7"...
1904-05..........28.1............4......…...22.2...………...48.1"...………...24.7"............……4.0"...6.0"...7.0"...11.0"...
1905-06..........36.7............7......…...32.8...………...20.0"...………...11.5"...............….6.0"...6.5"...5.0"...
1906-07..........31.7............4......…...25.9...………...53.2"...………...26.8"............……6.0"...5.0"...11.0"...6.0"...4.0"...6.0"...5.0"...
1907-08..........33.3............1......…...26.8...………...33.4"...………...23.8"............…..10.0"...8.0"...4.3"...
1908-09..........36.7............5......…...32.2...………...20.3"...………...11.4".........……....5.1"...4.0"
1909-10..........30.5............1......…...25.8...………...27.2"...………...19.0"...............….8.0"...10.0"...5.0"...

1910-11..........32.5..........11......…...29.8...………...25.2"...………...15.6"......………....4.0"...4.5"
1911-12..........30.6...........-3.....…...22.8...………...29.5"...………...14.5"......………….7.0"...
1912-13..........37.2..........11......…..31.7...………...15.3"...………...11.5"...………......11.4"
1913-14..........31.9...........-5......…..24.7...………...40.5"...………...35.2"......………....9.7"...5.3"...14.5"...
1914-15..........34.0............3......…..28.6...………...28.8"...………...17.9"......………....4.4"...7.7"...10.2"...
1915-16..........32.5............2......…..26.8...………...50.7"...………...25.6"......……...….6.0"...6.0"...5.3"...7.6"...4.0"...5.0"...
1916-17..........31.8............0......…..26.5...………...50.7"...………...21.8"......….........12.7"...4.3"...6.7"...6.5"...
1917-18..........25.7..........-13...…....19.0...………...34.5"...………...14.1"......………...9.5"...5.9"...
1918-19..........36.6..........10...……..34.5...………….3.8"...……….....2.7"......………...1.4"
1919-20..........27.4...........-2.....…...22.4...………..47.6"...………...25.3"...………….17.5"...

 

1920-21..........34.9............4...….....31.4...………...18.6"...………...15.1"......………..12.5"...
1921-22..........31.4...........-2......…..27.4...………...27.8"...………...13.7"...……….......6.5"...5.8"...
1922-23..........30.0............7...….....24.6...………...60.4"...………...23.1"......………….4.0"...9.0"...7.8"...6.3"...6.3"...7.3"...
1923-24..........34.6............5......…..28.0...………...27.5"...………...11.9"......………….4.9"...8.5"...
1924-25..........33.4...........-2......…..28.2...………...29.6"...………...27.4"...……….....11.5"...7.0"...5.1"...
1925-26..........32.0............5...……..26.9...………...32.4"......…...…26.3"...……….....10.4"...12.0"...
1926-27..........32.0...........-1.....…...28.6...………...22.3"...………..11.8"...………...….7.9"...5.1"...
1927-28..........34.6............7.....…...31.5...………...14.5"...………….9.2"...…………....5.3"...
1928-29..........34.7............8...……..31.1...………...13.8"...………...10.6"...…………....9.2"...
1929-30..........35.4............7........…28.8......……...13.6"...…………..6.3"...…….…......3.9"...

1930-31..........33.8..........10......…...31.9...………...11.6"...……….....6.0"...………...….3.9"...
1931-32..........40.1..........15......…...35.8...………….5.3"...…………..2.1"...……………2.0"...
1932-33..........37.8..........11......…...33.9...………...27.0"...………...15.4"...………...….7.2"...10.0"...
1933-34..........29.2.........-15......…...19.6...……......52.0"...………...28.0"...………......11.2"...9.8"...7.6"...9.3"...5.6"...
1934-35..........31.2...........-1......…...24.3...………...33.8"...………...24.3"...…………..13.0"...5.1"...4.5".
1935-36..........28.3...........-3......…...20.4...………...33.2"...………...18.5"...………...….4.1"...9.2"...4.7"...
1936-37..........37.9..........13......…...34.9...………...15.6"...…………..8.8"...…………....5.7"...
1937-38..........34.3............6......…...31.4...………...15.1"...……….....6.6"...……….…...6.4"...
1938-39..........35.4............6......…...29.3...………...37.3"...………...13.2"...…………….8.8"...4.0"...8.8"...4.5"...
1939-40..........31.6............7......…...24.9...………...25.7"...………...12.0"...…………….9.0"...

1940-41..........33.0..........10......…...28.8...………...39.0"...………...23.9"......……...…..5.2"...4.0"...18.1"...
1941-42..........32.9............5......…...29.0...………...11.3"...…………..6.4"...…………....3.2"...
1942-43..........32.2...........-8.........…28.7...………...29.5"...………...13.2"...………….....4.1"...8.4"...
1943-44..........33.4..........10......…...28.8...………...23.8"...………...10.3"...…………….7.3"...4.8"...6.5"...
1944-45..........30.5............2...…......23.8...………...27.1"...…...……18.6"...………….....6.7"...4.0"...
1945-46..........32.3............5......…...31.4...………...31.4"...………...18.1"...…………....8.3"...7.5"...
1946-47..........34.8............7......…...29.3...………...30.6"...………...23.2"...…………....4.0"...5.2"...10.7"...
1947-48..........30.0............0......…...21.5...………...63.2"...………...43.2"......………...25.8"...5.1"...5.4"...
1948-49..........38.5..........10......…...36.3...………...46.6"...………...26.8"...…………....5.3"...16.0"...4.5"...4.6"...9.4"...
1949-50..........37.5............6...…......31.6...………...13.8"...………….8.9"...…………….3.8"...

1950-51..........35.9............9...……..33.0...………...11.6"...………….5.0"...…………....3.0"...
1951-52..........37.0............8...….....31.9...………...19.7"...……….....8.6"...…………….5.8"...4.0"...
1952-53..........38.1..........12......…..35.5...………...15.1"...……….....7.5"...…………....4.5"...
1953-54..........37.4............7......…..30.3...………...15.8"...………...12.7"...…………....7.8"...
1954-55..........34.0............0......…..28.6...………...11.5"...…………..5.2"...…………....3.9"...
1955-56..........32.7............5......…..27.6...………...33.5"...………...25.3"...…………....6.5"...11.6"...4.2"...
1956-57..........35.6............0......…..27.8...………...21.9"...………...15.2"...…………....4.9"...6.4"...
1957-58..........33.3............3......…..28.1...………...44.7"...………...16.1"...…………....8.0"...4.5"...4.5"...7.9"...4.1"...11.8"...
1958-59..........30.9............7...….....28.5...………...13.0"...…………..6.7"...…………...5.5"...
1959-60..........36.2............9......…..30.3...………...39.2"...………...18.5"...…………..13.7"...14.5"...

1960-61..........31.7...........-2...….....24.6...………...54.7"...………...34.1"...……….....15.2".....9.9"...17.4"......
1961-62..........33.3............4......…..30.9...………...18.1"...……….....9.6"...…………....6.2"...
1962-63..........30.0...........-2...….....25.9...………...16.3"...……….....7.8"...…………....4.2"...
1963-64..........33.3............9......…..31.1...………...44.7"...………...20.7"......………….6.6"...12.5"...6.8"...4.9"...
1964-65..........33.3............9......…..28.0...………...24.4"...………...14.4"...…………....6.3".....4.6"...
1965-66..........35.9............8......…..28.5...………...21.4"...………...18.0"...…………....6.8".....6.3"...
1966-67..........34.1............4......…..28.6...………...51.5"...……...…25.6"......………….7.1"...12.5"...9.8"...
1967-68..........31.3...........-1......…..25.1...………...19.5"...……….....9.1"...…………....6.6"
1968-69..........32.9............9......…..30.4...………...30.2"...………...22.2"......………….5.2"...15.3"...
1969-70..........30.5............3......…..24.0...………...25.6"...………...14.7"...…………....6.8".....4.0"...

1970-71..........32.1............4......…..24.2......……...15.5"......……….11.4"...…………....6.4"...
1971-72..........35.1............5...….....28.6...………...22.9"...………...19.6"......………….5.7".....5.2"...
1972-73..........35.8............7...….....32.0...………….2.8"...…………..2.6"...……………1.8"...
1973-74..........35.5............6......…..32.3...………...23.5"...………...10.6"...…………....4.7".....6.0"...
1974-75..........37.5..........15......…..33.0...………...13.1"...………...11.3"...…………....7.8"...
1975-76..........34.4...........-1......…..27.1...………...17.3"...………....9.6"...…………….4.2".....4.0"...
1976-77..........28.5...........-2......…..21.9...………...24.5"...………...16.9"......………….5.2"...
1977-78..........30.3..........10......…..26.2...………...50.7"...………...37.2"...…………...13.6"...17.7".....4.2".....5.0"...
1978-79..........32.7............0......…..26.0...………...29.4"...………...20.1"...………….....5.0"...12.7"...
1979-80..........35.4..........10......…..30.9...………...12.8"...………….7.3"......…………..4.6"...

 

1980-81..........32.7...........-1......…..22.2...………...19.4"...………….9.7"......…………..4.9"...8.6"...
1981-82..........32.6............0......…..25.2...…………24.6"...………...11.8"...………….....5.8"...9.6"...
1982-83..........37.9..........12......…..32.9...…………27.2"...………...23.4"...………......17.6"...
1983-84..........35.2............4......…..26.1...………....25.4"...………...12.1"...…………....6.9"...5.1"...4.6"......
1984-85..........36.4...........-2......…..27.5...…….......24.1"...………...16.9"...…………....4.8"...4.1"...4.3"...5.7"...
1985-86..........33.4............8...….....31.0...………...13.0"...………...12.1"......…………..4.5"...4.5"...
1986-87..........34.8............4......…..29.3...………...23.1"...………...16.4"...……………..8.1"...4.2"
1987-88..........34.7............5...….....28.3...………...19.1"...………...16.5"...………….....5.8"...5.2"...
1988-89..........35.9............5...….....32.4...……….....8.1"...…………..5.3"...………….....5.0"...
1989-90..........35.7............6......…..25.3...………...13.4"...…………..5.4"...……………..4.7"...

1990-91..........39.2..........10......…..34.5...………...24.9"...………...15.6"...……………..7.2"...5.7"...8.9"...
1991-92..........37.2..........11......…..30.3...………...12.4"...…………..9.4"...………….....6.2"
1992-93..........35.0............7......…..31.0...………...24.5"...………...19.5"......…………..4.3"...10.6"...
1993-94..........31.2...........-2......…..23.5...………...53.4"...………...30.8"......…………..4.0"...4.5"...9.0"...12.8"...5.0"...
1994-95..........37.1............6......…..31.5...………...11.8"...………...11.6"............……..10.8"...
1995-96..........32.3............5......…..27.7...………...75.6"...………...35.2"...………….....7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"...
1996-97..........37.8............4...….....31.7...………...10.0"...……….....6.1"...……………..3.5".....
1997-98..........39.6..........14...….....37.3...……….....5.5"...……….....5.0"...………….....5.0"...

1998-99..........38.7............9...….....31.3...………...12.7"...……….....6.5"...………….....4.5"...
1999-00..........36.2............3...….....26.2...………...16.3"...………...14.7"...………….....5.5"...

2000-01..........33.5..........14......…..29.9...………...35.0"...………...20.3"...…………....12.0"...6.0"...5.7"...
2001-02..........41.5..........19...........35.4...……….....3.5"...……….....3.5"...…………......3.0"...
2002-03..........31.2............7...….....25.9...………...49.3"...……......29.6"...……………..6.0"...5.0"...5.3"...19.8"...4.0"...
2003-04..........32.4............1...….....22.5...………...42.6"...………...19.8"......………….14.0"...5.8"...5.7"...10.3"...
2004-05..........35.4............5...….....29.5...………...41.0"...………...20.2"...…………....13.8"...5.0"...6.0"...7.7"...
2005-06..........37.3..........14......…..33.5...………...40.0"...………...28.9"...……………..5.8"...26.9"...
2006-07..........36.5............8...….....25.8...………...12.4"...………….7.8"...……………..5.5"...
2007-08..........36.4..........10...….....35.7...………...11.9"...……….....9.0"......…………...6.0"...
2008-09..........34.2............6...….....27.9...………...27.6"...………...13.3"...……………..4.5"...4.3"...8.3"...
2009-10..........33.8..........13...….....31.6...………...51.4"...………...38.2"...…………....10.9"...10.0"...5.0"...20.9"...

2010-11..........32.7............6...….....28.1...………...61.9"...………...37.6"...…...……….20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"...
2011-12..........40.5..........13...….....37.0...…………..7.4"...……….....4.5"...………….....4.3"...

2012-13..........36.9..........11...….....31.5...………...26.1"...………...13.7"...…………......4.7"...11.4"...4.0"

2013-14..........33.0............4...….....28.5...………...57.4"...………...42.1"...…………......5.0"...6.4"...11.5"...8.0"...4.0"...9.5"

2014-15..........31.7............2...….....23.9...………...50.3"...………...22.6"...……………..9.8"...5.3".....4.0"...4.8"...7.5"...4.5"

2015-16..........41.0...........-1......…..34.4...………...32.8"...………...31.9"...…………...27.5"

2016-17..........39.3...…...14...….....35.4...………...30.2"...………...11.0"...……………...9.4"...7.6"...5.1"

2017-18..........36.2......…..5...….....27.1...………...40.9"...………...17.5"...…………......9.8"...8.4"...4.6"...4.4"...5.5"

2018-19...……..36.2.…..……2...….....30.8...………...20.5"...………...13.0"...……………..6.4"...4.0"...5.0"

 

1869-70--

2018-19...……33.6...…...4.3...…..….28,2...………..27.5"...…………

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for sharing this interesting research.

It will be interesting to see how that forecast works out. Right now it looks like the Pacific is running two opposites at once. Currently have that record Niño-like +AAM rise and the strong ridge building over Hudson Bay. The near record ridge north of Hawaii and +EPO are more Niña-like. This is the strongest January +EPO since the 11-12 La Niña. 


 

 

[Allsnow]