January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

48 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It has been 4 years since nyc saw  snowfall over 6 inches from a storm. 

I haven't pulled an  all nighter since that storm.

This winter is another failure and might me the worst ever.

6.4" fell on November 15, 2018 creating significant travel problems, as the City was caught unprepared for the snow.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Huh? outside of this winter so far NYC has had a 6" storm every winter back to 13/14.

Yes but not recently 

[MJO812]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

6.4" fell on November 15, 2018 creating significant travel problems, as the City was caught unprepared for the snow.

Just remembered that 

Thanks for the correction

[Yanksfan]

I assume Euro is a no go for this weekend? TT site is down again. Can't catch a break this winter.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Well he is just dealing with reality.

Next 14 days are AN...then the climo starts back up.

That’s when you start working against climo and sun angle with snow storms and snow cover

Well climo isn't working for us now and our biggest snows have recently been in November/March.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well climo isn't working for us now and our biggest snows have recently been in November/March.

Watch March be very snowy and cold 

[Allsnow]

14 degrees. My coldest temp of the winter 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Just remembered that 

Thanks for the correction

Ahhh but it wasn't winter yet 

[bluewave]

The general public is going to be very happy when they see their heating bill. Only the 10th time that NYC averaged 40 degrees or higher over the last 30 days.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Jan 20	Missing Count
1	2007-01-20	43.0	0
2	1932-01-20	42.6	0
3	1950-01-20	41.6	0
-	1933-01-20	41.6	0
5	1937-01-20	41.4	0
6	2006-01-20	41.0	0
7	2020-01-20	40.8	0
8	1890-01-20	40.4	0
9	2016-01-20	40.3	0
10	1995-01-20	40.1	0

[EastonSN+]

Did not watch video, however why would he throw in the towel this early? If he is throwing in the towel for an epic second half I get it, however the GEFS and GEPS look better in the LR, CFS and EURO weeklies show a better pattern and also wavelengths start to shorten. We can easily have 1 or 2 more snow events. The late 80s and early 90s taught us that March can be big in sub par winters (also last year).

I think he resides in Virginia? If so then I can see throwing in the towel for that region. 

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The general public is going to be very happy when they see their heating bill. Only the 10th time that NYC averaged 40 degrees or higher over the last 30 days.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Jan 20	Missing Count
1	2007-01-20	43.0	0
2	1932-01-20	42.6	0
3	1950-01-20	41.6	0
-	1933-01-20	41.6	0
5	1937-01-20	41.4	0
6	2006-01-20	41.0	0
7	2020-01-20	40.8	0
8	1890-01-20	40.4	0
9	2016-01-20	40.3	0
10	1995-01-20	40.1	0

Yep, and We are probably 2-3 weeks away from another arctic outbreak. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep, and We are probably 2-3 weeks away from another arctic outbreak. 

The departures were even higher to our north and west.

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

6.4" fell on November 15, 2018 creating significant travel problems, as the City was caught unprepared for the snow.

Not sure where this one started but it's not even close to being true.

As Don already pointed out there was the 6.4 inches on Nov 15, 2018, NYC came close on March 3, 2019 with 5.0 and 4.0 the day before (I forget if that was one event that equaled 9.0 or two separate events) 8.4 inches on March 21, 2018, 9.8 inches on January 4 2018, 5.5 inches on April 2, 2018, 7.6 inches on March 14, 2017, 9.4 inches on Feb 9, 2017.

So in the last three years there's been six storms on the great heat island over 6 inches and a couple more of 5-6 inches. I know this winter has been disappointing so far but we can't start making stuff up.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure where this one started but it's not even close to being true.

As Don already pointed out there was the 6.4 inches on Nov 15, 2018, NYC came close on March 3, 2019 with 5.0 and 4.0 the day before (I forget if that was one event that equaled 9.0 or two separate events) 8.4 inches on March 21, 2018, 9.8 inches on January 4 2018, 5.5 inches on April 2, 2018, 7.6 inches on March 14, 2017, 9.4 inches on Feb 9, 2017.

So in the last three years there's been six storms on the great heat island over 6 inches and a couple more of 5-6 inches. I know this winter has been disappointing so far but we can't start making stuff up.

Maybe they meant 12”+ snowstorms. It looks like the last one at EWR, NYC,LGA, and JFK was 1-23-16. The most recent event at ISP was 3-22-18.

[rclab]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe they meant 12”+ snowstorms. It looks like the last one at EWR, NYC,LGA, and JFK was 1-23-16. The most recent event at ISP was 3-22-18.

Anthony said 6 inches but probably wants 12. Don’t we all. As always ....

[Brian5671]

This winter is actually warmer than last years disaster.   It’s not that far off from 11-12 either.   Terrible 

[uncle W]

six inch storms for NYC since 2000

12/2000.....12.0"

1/2001...…….6.0"

12/2002...….6.0"

2/2003...…..19.8"

12/2003.....14.0"

1/2004...…..10.3"

1/2005...…..13.8"

2/2005...…….6.0"

3/2005...…...7.7"

2/2006...….26.9"

2/2008...…….6.0"

2/2009...…….8.3"

12/2009.....10.9"

2/2010...…..10.0"

2/2010...…..20.9"

12/2010.....20.0"

1/2011...…….9.1"

1/2011...….19.0"

2/2013...….11.4"

1/2014...…….6.4"

1/2014...…..11.5"

2/2014...…….8.0"

2/2014...…….9.5"-rain-3.0"

1/2015...…….9.8"

3/2015...…….7.5"

1/2016...…..27.5"

2/2017...…….9.4"

3/2017...…….7.6"

1/2018...…….9.8"

3/2018...…….8.4"

11/2018...…..6.4"

 

[JustinRP37]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

With the same forecasters busting 

I can't say it enough, what the same forecasters banked on for much of the past decade + is we have been AN, mostly much AN for snowfall. It is a conformational bias, not that they are actually skilled with their LR forecasts. Go look at JB and see how many of his temperature forecasts actually verified? The majority of the time he was always cold and BN temperatures for winter as a whole. However, his snowfall forecasts verified even in warm winters because 1 or 2 big storms would bring us AN for snow. There were several pro-mets calling for BN to N snowfall this year, they just typically are ignored by social media and winter weather enthusiasts because we all love to hear about lots of snow. Problem was say AN snow year in and year out, you were mostly correct since 2000, but not always for the right reasons. There are many others that do the same. Again more snow, more cold = more likes and shares = more revenue.  

[PB-99]

I will miss phase 8 by that much from 12 days away when the RIMM`s were circling in p6,  but the wave is collapsing so I will call that a BUST.

 

 

 

This is what was the GEFS forecast 2 weeks ago when some thought this would just circle back into 4/5/6, I would hope they would tell you they busted as well.

But you are unlikely to see that. 

 

 

I said we would go into p7 and p8. It doesn`t matter as others have pointed out, the MJO is not the sole factor and even if we got into p8, the pattern is so misaligned as Tom and Chris pointed out, it would not have mattered. 

Here is where we have been in Jan, the wave did come across but ultimately dies. 

 

 

We did get a nice 5 day flip out of it, 2 inches of snow this past weekend and the interior along 84 and points N are in for a nice concrete Snowstorm.

( Not what I thought ).

The idea that this weekend`s storm would cut under the block will be correct and  for those along 84 and even N and W of 80 and 287 you will accumulate.

(Again not what I thought ).

My Jan call was plus 1 and that will turn out horrible. 

( Again not what I thought ).

After that passes there`s another 2 week break so when we total up Dec 20 - Feb 20 , it will look like a non- winter. 

 

The Yankees over/under is 101.5, let`s hope Vegas get`s that right. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

The gfs imo has the correct idea with it jumping on the kelvin wave in 6. Then it will move quickly as a new mjo forms in p2 by feb 10th 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

37 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I can't say it enough, what the same forecasters banked on for much of the past decade + is we have been AN, mostly much AN for snowfall. It is a conformational bias, not that they are actually skilled with their LR forecasts. Go look at JB and see how many of his temperature forecasts actually verified? The majority of the time he was always cold and BN temperatures for winter as a whole. However, his snowfall forecasts verified even in warm winters because 1 or 2 big storms would bring us AN for snow. There were several pro-mets calling for BN to N snowfall this year, they just typically are ignored by social media and winter weather enthusiasts because we all love to hear about lots of snow. Problem was say AN snow year in and year out, you were mostly correct since 2000, but not always for the right reasons. There are many others that do the same. Again more snow, more cold = more likes and shares = more revenue.  

Using the 01-10 years the same as the averages are calculated by the NWS no 10 year periods other than the 1960's come within a couple of inches of the 150 year average for snowfall in NYC which is 28.8 inches.

Was the 1971-1990 period normal for snowfall? hardly, 2001-2020 I doubt it. The only consistent is that winters have been getting milder, and the snow especially along the coastal areas and UHI, does not stick around as long.

starting from the 1940's the 10 year averages are

1. 1941-1950.....31.5
2. 1951-1960.....24.1
3. 1961-1970.....29.0
4. 1971-1980.....21.3
5. 1981-1990.....20.2
6. 1991-2000.....25.4
7. 2001-2010.....32.1
8. 2011-2020.....36.9 if no more snow falls until Dec 31 2020, perish the thought

[PB-99]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The gfs imo has the correct idea with it jumping on the kelvin wave in 6. Then it will move quickly as a new mjo forms in p2 by feb 10th 

 

Tim, why the quick wave in 6, is that a real signal on the Roundy plots ? 

[Allsnow]

Just now, PB-99 said:

 

Tim, why the quick wave in 6, is that a real signal on the Roundy plots ? 

It’s a kelvin wave that all the rmm plots are jumping on. The roundy plots move it quickly ( kelvin waves move quickly regardless) and then a mjo wave forms in p1-2 by the 10th.

 

The mjo is so weak next month that it will be other factors that will control the pattern. We need to see the PV weaken or change positions.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The gfs imo has the correct idea with it jumping on the kelvin wave in 6. Then it will move quickly as a new mjo forms in p2 by feb 10th 

The MJO should be a non-factor at such low amplitudes & as it remains in the circle. 

However agree that it may emerge anywhere from 8-2 by mid Feb. We've seen a mostly sustained +NAO/AO period which will almost surely flip in about a month or so. 

I suppose we could follow years like 11/12 where spring takes hold early but that doesn't fit the current regime. 

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I can't say it enough, what the same forecasters banked on for much of the past decade + is we have been AN, mostly much AN for snowfall. It is a conformational bias, not that they are actually skilled with their LR forecasts. Go look at JB and see how many of his temperature forecasts actually verified? The majority of the time he was always cold and BN temperatures for winter as a whole. However, his snowfall forecasts verified even in warm winters because 1 or 2 big storms would bring us AN for snow. There were several pro-mets calling for BN to N snowfall this year, they just typically are ignored by social media and winter weather enthusiasts because we all love to hear about lots of snow. Problem was say AN snow year in and year out, you were mostly correct since 2000, but not always for the right reasons. There are many others that do the same. Again more snow, more cold = more likes and shares = more revenue.  

100% correct.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The MJO should be a non-factor at such low amplitudes & as it remains in the circle. 

However agree that it may emerge anywhere from 8-2 by mid Feb. We've seen a mostly sustained +NAO/AO period which will almost surely flip in about a month or so. 

I suppose we could follow years like 11/12 where spring takes hold early but that doesn't fit the current regime. 

True.

With 4 out of the last 5 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month, and in two of the last three March has been colder than February which is really out of the norm.

I'll take snow any month but my preference has always been December, January, February in that order.

[PB-99]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s a kelvin wave that all the rmm plots are jumping on. The roundy plots move it quickly ( kelvin waves move quickly regardless) and then a mjo wave forms in p1-2 by the 10th.

 

The mjo is so weak next month that it will be other factors that will control the pattern. We need to see the PV weaken or change positions.

Imagine fussing over p8 for 2 weeks and then it goes into every p but, good grief. 

Maybe Tom and his mid Feb call takes hold. Feb was my best month, but the 1st 10 days torch.

 

[kat5hurricane]

5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

It has been 4 years since nyc saw  snowfall over 10 inches from a storm. 

I haven't pulled an  all nighter since that storm.

This winter is another failure and might me the worst ever.

Welcome to a normal NYC winter climate, it took about 20 years to get there. 

The fact of the matter is that we've been extremely spoiled this century. A regression to the mean with a string of subpar winters was inevitable.

This one can still be salvaged with one big storm (like '05-'06 for instance) but not looking good as of now. I'd be willing to sacrifice the rest of winter if it meant no cold and wet spring. That's the absolute worst.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

14 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Welcome to a normal NYC winter climate, it took about 20 years to get there. 

The fact of the matter is that we've been extremely spoiled this century. A regression to the mean with a string of subpar winters was inevitable.

This one can still be salvaged with one big storm (like '05-'06 for instance) but not looking good as of now. I'd be willing to sacrifice the rest of winter if it meant no cold and wet spring. That's the absolute worst.

Sorry but this year and last aren't even close to normal. Certainly not for temperatures and not for snowfall either. Forget the last 20 years the 150 year average is 28.8 inches per season.  I posted the 10 year averages per decade somewhere this morning.

NYC had 2/3 their average last year and will be lucky to get anywhere near that this year. But as you say one big storm could bring them near average. Let's hope.

[uncle W]

38 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I want to know nyc snow climo in the 1700s and 1800s

we have been spoiled

it was colder with more snow on average than we get now from what I've read and researched...It did have some mild winters with one snowstorm...six years after the year without a summer in 1816 the 1822 summer was warm even by todays standards...same for 1825...

1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/