January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 35.6degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is   +8.2[.40.7].      Should be +6.7[39.1] by the 28th.      This +3 it maintains for the remainder of the month, so January ends at +6.1[38.5].       First 4 days of February are +9.

All models have no more than a Trace near the 26th.       CMC looks like its the coldest for next 10 days. 

  NB:   The 06Z GFS looks like its older brother run of exactly four days ago, which was 24" of wet snow here.    Start of Feb. looks better too at +7.5 for the first 5 days.

PAGE1REPLATE: Unfortunately SD just called an end to the winter within 3 weeks.    He must have gotten this from Judah Cohen with whom he consulted with 10 days ago.       JC stated an inexplicable heating of the ionosphere had destroyed the strat. warming.    I noted this then, but saw no follow up here from the members.

21* here at 6am.       27* by Noon.        30* by 2pm.       32* by 3:30pm.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Of course this shows an interior storm but it wouldn't take much to shift this east. The coast has been getting screwed alot this winter. Let's hope this storm trends in our favor. 

I do not think a change in track is what we need, temps are just too warm. What we need is a stronger low with stronger dynamics. At this lead time that’s still on the table. But the airmass isn’t going to cut it at the coast without a bomb.

[the_other_guy]

You are all saying the same thing in different ways

This has potential though and if anything bares watching this year...it is this storm

Especially if you live in Westchester or Rockland and certainly Putnam and Orange

[purduewx80]

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Outside winters like 95-96/13-14 not many. 

Yeah, we need extreme -EPO or -NAO blocking to get a colder than average winter here. Otherwise, the default pattern has been warmer than normal winters. We got the record -NAO blocking in 09-10 and 10-11. This was followed by the record -EPO blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. 

NYC DJF temperature departures 

19-20.....+3.9....through 1-19

18-19.....+1.2

17-18....+1.1

16-17....+4.2....6th warmest

15-16....+5.9....2nd warmest

14-15....-3.7

13-14....-2.2

12-13...+1.2

11-12...+5.4....3rd warmest

10-11....-2.3

09-10....-1.3

 

 

[donsutherland1]

This morning, the temperature sank to 20° in Central Park. January has yet to see a temperature in the teens. Tonight could be another opportunity for the temperature to push toward the teens in Central Park.

Meanwhile, if one looked at the latest teleconnections forecast, the AO is forecast to remain positive to strongly positive through the next two weeks. Nothing has changed there. To date, the AO has averaged +1.464 during meteorological winter. Just to average 0.000, it would have to average -1.867 every day starting tomorrow through February 29.

At the same time, the PNA is forecast to "flatline" (perhaps a fitting symbol of Social Media's thinking that Winter 2019-2020 has flatlined, the boredom that has swept online weather communities waiting for winter to reassert itself, or depression from Europe's non-winter to date).

Such highly stable PNA regimes have occurred before. One such regime occurred during January 8 through January 24, 1985. During that 17-day period, the PNA averaged +0.930. The standard deviation was 0.057. The lowest PNA figure was +0.852 on January 14. The highest was +1.011 on January 16.

[PB-99]

 

I just wanted to touch on the MJO here and what I opined on about for close 2 weeks ago in this thread.

I am only showing this to make the point of how bad the GEFS/BC rimm plot behaved from 2 weeks out. So yes there are many who are worried about the MJO coming back out in p6 and I am not here to debate that yet because the Vp 200`s do not look very good for early Feb. 

However when you are buying what the guidance is telling you today in the very L/R, it's important to see what I was saying before. 

Here was the CFS 2 weeks ago,

 

I inked that correction which were based on the VP 200 anomalies, and here is the CFS yesterday,

 

 

You can see the CFS never gave up on p7.

 

Here is latest CFS , it looks to touch 8 and die just like the GEFSBC

 

 

Now here is today`s GEFS / BC, it came around to the CFS now sees p7 and touches p8.

 

 

 

 

 

2 weeks ago the GEFS RIMM Plots  had many believing this had no chance at p7 let along p8.

Again , these did not match the vp200 or Roundy plots.

 

 

 

There is nothing to discuss this was a really poor job seeing the wave moving through. 

 

So I am just saying before you run out and buy a pair of shorts , wait to see if this new wave the models see does in fact emerge.

Again I am not saying a p6 forecast is wrong ( p6 in Feb is a torch )  I am saying don't go rushing in head 1st and buy it.

 

Based on it`s miss from 2 weeks out I can say with any confidence where this goes after the initial wave collapses.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning, the temperature sank to 20° in Central Park. January has yet to see a temperature in the teens. Tonight could be another opportunity for the temperature to push toward the teens in Central Park.

Meanwhile, if one looked at the latest teleconnections forecast, the AO is forecast to remain positive to strongly positive through the next two weeks. Nothing has changed there. To date, the AO has averaged +1.464 during meteorological winter. Just to average 0.000, it would have to average -1.867 every day starting tomorrow through February 29.

At the same time, the PNA is forecast to "flatline" (perhaps a fitting symbol of Social Media's thinking that Winter 2019-2020 has flatlined, the boredom that has swept online weather communities waiting for winter to reassert itself, or depression from Europe's non-winter to date).

Such highly stable PNA regimes have occurred before. One such regime occurred during January 8 through January 24, 1985. During that 17-day period, the PNA averaged +0.930. The standard deviation was 0.057. The lowest PNA figure was +0.852 on January 14. The highest was +1.011 on January 16.

This looks like the first time since 2010 that the NYC January minimum temperature finishes warmer than December.

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Season
2019-2020	16	20	16
2018-2019	24	2	2
2017-2018	9	5	5
2016-2017	17	14	14
2015-2016	34	11	11
2014-2015	24	8	8
2013-2014	19	4	4
2012-2013	28	11	11
2011-2012	22	13	13
2010-2011	19	6	6
2009-2010	16	13	13

[uncle W]

since 1869 the average January minimum is 7.3 degrees...

[MJO812]

Pna finally looks great

[PB-99]

The Ski resorts will be back in business

 

[doncat]

Even here in suburbia have only managed a 19° this month.

[Isotherm]

2 minutes ago, doncat said:

Even here in suburbia have only managed a 19° this month.

 

Same: only 18.8F, which is fairly incredible when one considers my average lows are in the lower 20s. We've made it through 20 days of January and have not see an overnight low more than a couple degrees sub-normal.

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Pna finally looks great

 

 

Unfortunately, the continental USA will be devoid of polar air during the time-frame of greatest PNA amplitude. So, even conducive storm tracks could imply rain rather than snow for the I-95 corridor. Due to the fact that we are at the climatological height of winter, marginal airmasses can potentially work for interior areas.

[winterwx21]

Looks as if tomorrow could be our last day with normal temps for a long time. No cold air on the models in the long range ... constant above normal temps. Of course long range is changeable, so hopefully something will change. But right now it's a very depressing look for winter lovers.

[HVSnowLover]

26 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The Ski resorts will be back in business

 

Hope it verifies, would be nice to at least see parts of the northeast get a winter

[PB-99]

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Hope it verifies, would be nice to at least see parts of the northeast get a winter

 

If this 10 day mean verifies that has a very good shot.

The GEFS is not warm in the L/R. 

 

That`s a snowy pattern for the interior.

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Unfortunately, the continental USA will be devoid of polar air during the time-frame of greatest PNA amplitude. So, even conducive storm tracks could imply rain rather than snow for the I-95 corridor. Due to the fact that we are at the climatological height of winter, marginal airmasses can potentially work for interior areas.

Yep. The pac is the only reason we are not getting a full on torch. Shades of 97-98 with a ideal storm track but a putrid airmass. 
 

 

[Allsnow]

Starting to see some hints of the lower hgts moving out of Ak at the end of the eps/GEFS. I’m sure this will not be a quick process and can kicking might occur. 

[PB-99]

There`s no torch on the GEFS through it`s 15 days.

 

It`s plus 3 to 5  day in the day 5 - 12 the period and in late Jan , it`s AN but no torch.

 

Here is how you end 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

There`s no torch on the GEFS through it`s 15 days.

 

It`s plus 3 to 5  day in the day 5 - 12 the period and in late Jan , it`s not warm.

 

Here is how you end 

 

[PB-99]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

Day 9 - 16 

 

Plus 2 to 3 F 

[Allsnow]

Just now, PB-99 said:

Day 9 - 16 

 

Plus 2 to 3 F 

Which have been documented well that it’s been too cold in that 11-15 day range. Perhaps some hints of change by Feb 5th but that could be rushing it.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Day 9 - 16 

 

Plus 2 to 3 F 

That's not actually that awful considering the time of year.

[PB-99]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Which have been documented well that it’s been too cold in that 11-15 day range. Perhaps some hints of change by Feb 5th but that could be rushing it.

 

I agree with the 5th, the trough digs into the OHV on the GEFS.

 

I just think that 500 is very snowy for the ski resorts New England and some here in the interior. 

 

[PB-99]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

That's not actually that awful considering the time of year.

 

The EPS is closer to plus 5.

The STJ is cutting under a block, it works for the interior.

 

Those 500`s are not winters over for those posters. 

 

[PB-99]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Which have been documented well that it’s been too cold in that 11-15 day range. Perhaps some hints of change by Feb 5th but that could be rushing it.

 

I see the HP you see working into Alaska on D 15.

 

Let`s hope that`s right. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. The pac is the only reason we are not getting a full on torch. Shades of 97-98 with a ideal storm track but a putrid airmass. 
 

 

This is a continuation of the misalignment discussion. Niño-like ridge near Hudson Bay and Niña-like ridge NE of Hawaii. Almost a combination of the 97-98 and 11-12  patterns at 500 mb to close out January.

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a continuation of the misalignment discussion. Niño-like ridge near Hudson Bay and Niña-like ridge NE of Hawaii. Almost a combination of the 97-98 and 11-12  patterns at 500 mb to close out January.

 

 

 

Just not in sink. I see improvements on the 11-15 day eps but that’s la la land. It wants to kick the ridge to Greenland and higher hgts move into Ak. Something to monitor as we get closer. It will take time to flush this pac air out. By day 15 on the eps we are still above avg with those changes. 

[CIK62]

Once again we have a stellar analog leading the pack of '02/05/1961' which picks up right after that winter concluded so spectacularly.        16 straight High T's under 32, a  -2 morning and an 18" Blizzard.      Nothing happened after that day to take the bank.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif