January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

97-98 was a strong nino. Of course the country torched. You can’t compare that nino to this one. 

No matter the strength of nino the result is warmer northern tier with cooler south. With the vortex in AK it’s even worst. Just loop the 18z gfs it illustrates the up coming pattern very well.

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Yes, I agree with your post here and the others recently. Regarding the putative canonical Nino-look and seasonable temps in the South, that doesn't necessarily imply favorable pattern for snow in the Northeast I-95 corridor. Classical Ninos are typically seasonable temperature wise across the southern tier of the CONUS due to frequent clouds and precipitation.

For example, see 97-98, which wasn't a torch for the southern half of the country, but it certainly wasn't snowy for our region.

 

 

 

Similar look with 1982-83.

 

Yep. @bluewave made a terrific post about the +AAM and ridge by Hawaii. This played a big part in the colder pattern going poof. 
 

As you have said recently you can’t have biases in weather. If the pattern looked cold and snowy we both would be posting about it. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Yes those 20’s in Canada will be hot for sure 

Yep, about on par for a normal high in areas north of nyc. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

It could correct to a better pattern in the future, but from my point of view, I don't think that week 2/week 3 period qualifies.  I'm talking about the pattern and view I have confidence in at the moment, which is for that window.   Generally that's what forecasting is.  I didn't say "no snow balance of winter", did i?"

 

That said, I still like the pieces on the board for the upcoming weekend and think theres a good chance at a significant storm here.  

Thanks. 

I agree on the weekend, just need it to pass under us and intensify.

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Wait wut? Loop a operational model past 5 days?? Lol  and you are 100% wrong on the strength of the nino not making a difference in temps. 

For the next two weeks it fits the h5 pattern well. A moderating northern tier with a active  progressive stj. Just because it doesn’t show what you want doesn’t make it wrong. 
 

Yes, in that moderate 09-10 nino it was bitterly cold up north.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks, Chris. And great explanation above as well. Another factor supporting the notion of potentially a better window of opportunity late Feb-Mar is the wavelength alterations. The shorter wavelengths in late winter-March can often render than base state -PDO/-PNA less influential. I do not have the data in front of me, but I would wager to assert that a proportionally higher % of snow events in March featured a -PNA compared to Dec-Jan-Feb. @uncle W may have those statistics.

Until late February, we may continue to battle this unpropitious base state.

 

@donsutherland1 has posted about this in the past.  I had it saved but can't find it.  But if IIRC your assertion is correct.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I just hope we don’t get the pattern we want now in the spring. The ost couple of springs have sucked. 

I wouldn't be shocked to see an active March 

[MJO812]

Not bad

[BxEngine]

If you cant make your point without being pompous and/or argumentative, rethink what youre here for.  

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

It was warm up north in 2009-10.  Rained in Maine while DC had their snowiest winter ever. Your point??? 

 

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Yes, I agree with your post here and the others recently. Regarding the putative canonical Nino-look and seasonable temps in the South, that doesn't necessarily imply favorable pattern for snow in the Northeast I-95 corridor. Classical Ninos are typically seasonable temperature wise across the southern tier of the CONUS due to frequent clouds and precipitation.

For example, see 97-98, which wasn't a torch for the southern half of the country, but it certainly wasn't snowy for our region.

 

 

 

Similar look with 1982-83.

 

 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Mersky said:

Sir you are proving my point and you don’t even know it. 82-83 huge February snowstorm. 2009-10 huge mid Atlantic winter for snow. It can snow when it’s warm up north. 

If proving your point means the next two weeks look meh for snow and canonical nino is warm north/cold south, then sure. Obviously, those last two posts from you were trying to twist my words. 
 

Let’s not forget about the uber blocking in 09-10 in a otherwise warmer then normal winter. December 09 and January 10 were above Avg with little snow outside December 20 09. 

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If proving your point means the next two weeks look meh for snow and canonical nino is warm north/cold south, then sure. Obviously, those last two posts from you were trying to twist my words. 
 

Let’s not forget about the uber blocking in 09-10 in a otherwise warmer then normal winter. December 09 and January 10 were above Avg with little snow outside December 20 09. 

2009-10 was below average by todays standards...

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Ask people in DC if they would change anything about 2009-10. I doubt you will get many complaints that December and January were slightly above normal. Truthfully how many winters are wall to wall cold around here?? 

Outside winters like 95-96/13-14 not many. That’s why we avg what we avg here for snow. I don’t follow why I need to survey people from DCA about winter 09-10? All I’m saying is that was Nino climo helped by a uber block in February and December.

[Allsnow]

Mjo still looks to get into 7/8 to start February then the kelvin wave gets stronger in p5. Lots of substance in p6 so would not be shocked if that wave collapsed into cod 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Outside winters like 95-96/13-14 not many. That’s why we avg what we avg here for snow. I don’t follow why I need to survey people from DCA about winter 09-10? All I’m saying is that was Nino climo helped by a uber block in February and December.

And 95-96 wasn’t wall to wall cold. We had the epic January thaw that caused massive flooding in PA and the DC area which got slammed in the 1/7 blizzard and 1/12 storm. Some places had 3 feet of snow that torch melted. 

[uncle W]

these are the years with the warmest 'coldest consecutive 30 days''...average is about 28.2...the last real cold month was Feb 2015 when 30 days average 23.9...this year could make this list...

1997-98.....37.3

2011-12.....37.0

1948-49.....36.3

1931-32.....35.8

2007-08.....35.7

1889-90.....35.6

1952-53.....35.5

2016-17.....35.4

2001-02.....35.4

1936-37.....34.9

1918-19.....34.5

1990-91.....34.5

2015-16.....34.4

1897-98.....34.2

1879-80.....34.0

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mjo still looks to get into 7/8 to start February then the kelvin wave gets stronger in p5. Lots of substance in p6 so would not be shocked if that wave collapsed into cod 

PB was right about going into 8. He isnt sure what happens after that.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Mersky said:

In fact I would hate to see huge negative showing up in southern and central Canada. That’s dry and cold weather in the east. 

Yea especially at this time of the year, I agree I'd rather a more active pattern with a chance of snow and some moderation than having constant cold. The constant cold is good for a snowpack but beyond that it's not that enjoyable at least to me. 

[HVSnowLover]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

That’s simply incorrect. Having arctic air yesterday was the only reason you snowed.

You don't need an artic high to snow in the middle of winter, we've seen places to our south and east get a snow event two weeks ago. You just to get lucky with a storm track here or there, overall most storms will track to our NW but it can still snow in a bad pattern especially in the middle of winter

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of yesterday's snowfall, another shot of cold air has moved into the region. However, its stay will likely be short-lived.

Warmer conditions will likely develop during the middle of the week. Somewhat colder air could return during the closing days of January, but the risk that January could end on a mild note has increased. A mild finish would represent a big change from the previous scenario where Pacific-driven changes would lead to the development of a colder pattern to continue into the start of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +0.24 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.489.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 27. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 18, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.913 (RMM). The January 17-adjusted amplitude was 3.178.

The MJO had spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8.

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period as a whole would be colder than normal overall. However, uncertainty about the extended range has increased and a warmer than normal outcome now appears more likely than not (perhaps something closer to the January 1993 outcome even as the week 3-4 outcome will be colder than the week 1-2 period).

A very warm first and second half of January does not necessarily mean that February will be warmer than normal. There were five such cases following a January 1-15 mean temperature of 40.0° or above. 1932 and 1998 were warmer than normal in February. 2006 was near normal. 1937 and 1950 were colder than normal. Overall, for New York City, the coefficient of determination between the January and February temperature is just 0.07 (1869-2019).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.0° in New York City. The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased.

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

You don't need an artic high to snow in the middle of winter, we've seen places to our south and east get a snow event two weeks ago. You just to get lucky with a storm track here or there, overall most storms will track to our NW but it can still snow in a bad pattern especially in the middle of winter

Like it snowed yesterday in a bad pattern with a arctic high. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Like it snowed yesterday in a bad pattern with a arctic high. 

Yes but as others have said yesterdays storm had a primary in Michigan, if the low tracks to the SE of us it can snow without artic air in January.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

@donsutherland1 has posted about this in the past.  I had it saved but can't find it.  But if IIRC your assertion is correct.

The following are the statistics for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms (1950-2019):

1/1-31: 20% PNA-
2/1-14: 39% PNA-
2/15-29: 45% PNA-
3/1-15: 57% PNA-

[CIK62]

Tomorrow AM still seems to be the coldest we will see for two weeks:

GFS still has the first 4 days now of February averaging near a +10.

 

 

Maybe this is better than yesterday, but 1953 analog still up there.      Besides, the automated weekend system shows it will dry along EC at this same time.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

[psv88]

Heavy snow here at Camelback ski resort in the Poconos. Nothing on radar 

 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS is a big hit next weekend for the interior and close to being big for the interior sections of the subforum, would favor inland but this one could still get interesting

[SnoSki14]

Very odd pattern for this time of year.

Euro looks like early spring with semi cut-off low pressure systems scouring across the southern US. 

The only places that'll see BN temperatures are parts of the south due to clouds/rain. There's zero arctic transport so the best you could hope for is a bombing system & perfect track and even that may not do it. 

[MJO812]

Gfs

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs

That’s allot of white rain for the coast. Verbatim this is a big hit inland and elevated, more like something you see early or late season where you need some elevation to gets temps to workout. We would want to see this really bomb to draw in colder air and create its own cold pool. Plenty of time to get things to work, but I wouldn’t be too optimistic outside of our NW guys

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s allot of white rain for the coast. Verbatim this is a big hit inland and elevated, more like something you see early or late season where you need some elevation to gets temps to workout. We would want to see this really bomb to draw in colder air and create its own cold pool. Plenty of time to get things to work, but I wouldn’t be too optimistic outside of our NW guys

Of course this shows an interior storm but it wouldn't take much to shift this east. The coast has been getting screwed alot this winter. Let's hope this storm trends in our favor.