January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Isotherm]

13 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Geps and GEFS are much better looking in the LR. But they don’t get mentioned much 

 

Likely because the skill scores are substantially lower. The EPS bias in our region was negligible in the recent 11-15, while conversely, the GEFS bias was significant.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

42 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

2" less than average to date is not very far off than average. Think about it?

That was my point. Now in 2 weeks our ytd is up to about 13-14" which is approximately the halfway mark

[Isotherm]

On 1/18/2020 at 7:46 AM, bluewave said:

Great post, Tom. Misalignment has been a common theme recently. Last winter we saw the the Niña-like warmth in the WPAC result in the uncoupled El Niño. So we had the Niña-like ridge axis stuck north of Hawaii. This year we have experienced a continuation of that persistent ridge axis north of Hawaii. Now we are getting the amplification of the ridge in SE Canada with the Niño-like +AAM spike. But a piece of that ridge north of Hawaii holds on into the 6-10 day forecast.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks, Chris. And great explanation above as well. Another factor supporting the notion of potentially a better window of opportunity late Feb-Mar is the wavelength alterations. The shorter wavelengths in late winter-March can often render than base state -PDO/-PNA less influential. I do not have the data in front of me, but I would wager to assert that a proportionally higher % of snow events in March featured a -PNA compared to Dec-Jan-Feb. @uncle W may have those statistics.

Until late February, we may continue to battle this unpropitious base state.

 

[Brian5671]

48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Weeklies will be interesting tomorrow

Last year they kept showing the great pattern which as you know never showed. Seems like more of the same this  year 

[Allsnow]

23 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks, Chris. And great explanation above as well. Another factor supporting the notion of potentially a better window of opportunity late Feb-Mar is the wavelength alterations. The shorter wavelengths in late winter-March can often render than base state -PDO/-PNA less influential. I do not have the data in front of me, but I would wager to assert that a proportionally higher % of snow events in March featured a -PNA compared to Dec-Jan-Feb. @uncle W may have those statistics.

Until late February, we may continue to battle this unpropitious base state.

 

Yep. I’m  pretty sure we gain a phase of the mjo that is cold in March. I believe it is p3. 
 

Another year with a favorable mjo pass that will result in a unfavorable response. We could see some hits on the Pv starting in mid February that will line up with your timing well.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Another rathe ugly eps run. As the vortex sits in ak with a ridge near Hudson Bay. Canada is really flooded with above normal pac air. The ridge from Hawaii is into the west coast. This look is locked on the eps all the way into the first week of February. 

Really because Eric Webb think the eps doesnt look bad at all.

 

The Atlantic doesnt look bad at all

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Didn’t the EPS 5 days ago show a completely different look then they do now???  The GEFS and GEPS have been steady. The EPS showed February 2015 walking through the door 5 days ago. Huge 180 flip so I prefer steady and consistent over knee jerk modeling at the moment 

Eps has been awful this whole season and yet people praise it all the time.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Really because Eric Webb think the eps doesnt look bad at all.

 

The Atlantic doesnt look bad at all

I don’t know what he is saying but that is a ugly look on the eps. Vortex in ak with a +nao. The only thing that makes it cooler by him is the split flow. If that’s what he is saying. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps has been awful this whole season and yet people praise it all the time.

This is simply incorrect. It hasn’t been any worst then the other guidance. The GEFS have been too cold in the long range. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

That isn’t a torch either so Webb is correct. 

I didn’t say it was a torch but very much above normal. That’s a 7 day mean and after Thursday we don’t have another below normal day. (If correct) I don’t know what exactly Webb said so I’m not going to question it. 
 

The flow looks very progressive with above normal temps the next two weeks. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I didn’t say it was a torch but very much above normal. That’s a 7 day mean and after Thursday we don’t have another below normal day. (If correct) I don’t know what exactly Webb said so I’m not going to question it. 
 

The flow looks very progressive with above normal temps the next two weeks. 

With a storm threat next weekend. Not bad at all.

Nws mentioned about possible secondary development over the Carolinas.

[gravitylover]

51 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks, Chris. And great explanation above as well. Another factor supporting the notion of potentially a better window of opportunity late Feb-Mar is the wavelength alterations. The shorter wavelengths in late winter-March can often render than base state -PDO/-PNA less influential. I do not have the data in front of me, but I would wager to assert that a proportionally higher % of snow events in March featured a -PNA compared to Dec-Jan-Feb. @uncle W may have those statistics.

Until late February, we may continue to battle this unpropitious base state.

 

Might this also explain the strong early seasons we see in marginal patterns? 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

With a storm threat next weekend. Not bad at all.

Nws mentioned about possible secondary development over the Carolinas.

We have a very marginal airmass with no artic air around. The eps mean has less then a one inch for our area. Those numbers increase out by northern Pa and upstate ny. 
 

So in short, I would be shocked to see next weekend workout for the costal plain.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Mersky said:

That is still below freezing air in Canada. I know people love to look at the pretty red colors and think it’s a torch but it isn’t. A well timed high pressure system and a low coming across the south, which that clearly shows is a split flow, could still cause snow this time of the year. If that map was in early December or March then no. But marginal air masses can work in late January, early February. 

It would be a torch if we didn’t have a split flow. That ridge from Hawaii would be in the plains instead of the west coast. It’s not a torch but above normal for the majority of the conus. I expect very little for the coastal plain the next two weeks. The interior and nne is a totally different story.

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It would be a torch if we didn’t have a split flow. That ridge from Hawaii would be in the plains instead of the west coast. It’s not a torch but above normal for the majority of the conus. I expect very little for the coastal plain the next two weeks. The interior and nne is a totally different story.

People said the same thing about this timeframe and look , many coastal regions saw snow yesterday. 

Eps is +1. That isnt a torch in January. 

The storm this weekend is really close doe everyone .

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

If people are looking for arctic cold day after day then yea, that look sucks. But it isn’t a torch and could have a storm in the mix the next two weeks. 

Agree

We dont want arctic air this time of the year. If so then congrats DC.

[MJO812]

Eps is +1 for the temp anomaly for day 10-15. That will work fine in January. 

[Allsnow]

Okay. This was the exact tweet. I agree for North Carolina it’s not a torch. It will be too stormy down there with a active STJ which will keep temps around normal. Imo that tweet has nothing to do with areas outside the southern US.

 

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

People said the same thing about this timeframe and look , many coastal regions saw snow yesterday. 

Eps is +1. That isnt a torch in January. 

The storm this weekend is really close doe everyone .

Disagree. I remember posting about a over running threat last Saturday when it was in the 70’s. I even posted how the news will have that classic split screen weather segment. The cold artic high pressure was the only reason we snowed in yesterday’s set up.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps is +1 for the temp anomaly for day 10-15. That will work fine in January. 

That’s Celsius Anthony 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, Mersky said:

So a well timed high during a otherwise above normal regime led to snow yesterday, correct?? 

Yes. Because we had very cold air in Canada. I don’t see that In the next two weeks of January. The vortex and ridge in Hudson Bay will moderate Canada quickly.

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Agree

We dont want arctic air this time of the year. If so then congrats DC.

That’s simply incorrect. Having arctic air yesterday was the only reason you snowed.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

That was my point. Now in 2 weeks our ytd is up to about 13-14" which is approximately the halfway mark

Exactly. Year after year you hear the same old banter on here. You know, the winter is canceled drivel. Then you get 2 or 3 storms from around now thru March and snow totals get up near average. Not every year. Some will be above average, some will be below. It will be the same next year.  Like last year, and will rinse and repeat 2 years from now and beyond. Over time spans beyond our comprehension it averages out. 

[Allsnow]

I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade. It’s a weather forum and you can track whatever you want. Imo the pattern looks unfavorable for significant snow in nyc for the next 2-3 weeks. 

[binbisso]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s simply incorrect. Having arctic air yesterday was the only reason you snowed.

Yes that's because the primary was north of Detroit. If the system next week stays under us we could have Frozen even down to the coast

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Yes that's because the primary was north of Detroit. If the system next week stays under us we could have Frozen even down to the coast

I was referring to his statement about how  Arctic air in January keeps storms to are south. 

The system stays to our south on the 12z euro and the big city’s along 95 get nothing but rain.

 

[binbisso]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

I was referring to his statement about how  Arctic air in January keeps storms to are south. 
 

 

Ok yes i agree. 

[binbisso]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I was referring to his statement about how  Arctic air in January keeps storms to are south. 

The system stays to our south on the 12z euro and the big city’s along 95 get nothing but rain.

 

Yes not going to make difference for dc but Shift that system North a hundred miles and there would be frozen for many in this sub forum. Obviously that's going off the Euro run verbatim we know all the caveats that apply to a 7-Day system

[NittanyWx]

6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

What I do not get is the sense that once the bad pattern sets in it's all over as in it will not correct to a better pattern in the future. Unless there is something about the upcoming pattern that historically sticks for months?

 

It could correct to a better pattern in the future, but from my point of view, I don't think that week 2/week 3 period qualifies.  I'm talking about the pattern and view I have confidence in at the moment, which is for that window.   Generally that's what forecasting is.  I didn't say "no snow balance of winter", did i?"

 

That said, I still like the pieces on the board for the upcoming weekend and think theres a good chance at a significant storm here.  

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. I’m  pretty sure we gain a phase of the mjo that is cold in March. I believe it is p3. 
 

Another year with a favorable mjo pass that will result in a unfavorable response. We could see some hits on the Pv starting in mid February that will line up with your timing well.

 

 

Yes, I agree with your post here and the others recently. Regarding the putative canonical Nino-look and seasonable temps in the South, that doesn't necessarily imply favorable pattern for snow in the Northeast I-95 corridor. Classical Ninos are typically seasonable temperature wise across the southern tier of the CONUS due to frequent clouds and precipitation.

For example, see 97-98, which wasn't a torch for the southern half of the country, but it certainly wasn't snowy for our region.

 

 

 

Similar look with 1982-83.