White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: What I do not get is the sense that once the bad pattern sets in it's all over as in it will not correct to a better pattern in the future. Unless there is something about the upcoming pattern that historically sticks for months? Great point. I think the observation thus far is that models tend to go warm on us the closer we get to a particular time period when initially progged as cold and promising. Hence the pessimism and thinking that more of the same will continue. The warmth feels like the default pattern this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Ukmet looks pretty nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Ukmet looks pretty nice Gefs looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We have scored 3 accumulating snowfalls to date, so while this winter has shown it's hand, we should expect at least 1 more window. While the pack is definitely bad, it's nowhere near as bad as 11/12 was. You did a great job recognizing the overall background state. The accumulations have been laughable down my way. Not sure we have cleared 2 inches yet in any event, and a couple didn't clear an inch....at this point a 4 inch storm would be a major deal in these parts.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s still early It really isn't early at this point. But there is some decent time left, however not unless there is a pattern change. In this pattern those of us near the coast are just not gonna see much. My rule of thumb over the years is to ignore any "storm" that is forecast at 1-3, because it is so negligible. My yard is already back to brown, or rather a dull green... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Discuss the weather, not each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs looks good But what would make it a good storm for us? If the same atmospheric conditions prevail, we'll be in the same boat as all season, waiting for crumbs. What would have to happen to give us a decent shot at something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 New thread open for mid to long range threats. Please discuss these possible systems in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: The accumulations have been laughable down my way. Not sure we have cleared 2 inches yet in any event, and a couple didn't clear an inch....at this point a 4 inch storm would be a major deal in these parts.. Yesterday was my biggest storm 1.6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mersky said: Did the groundhog you saw on Friday tell you this??? 1 minute ago, Mersky said: There are still 8 weeks to score a decent snowstorm in these parts. Maybe a one and done winter but posts about birds singing and groundhogs appearing in January are pure troll posts by the usual troll on here. You can bark at each other in the new thread or preferably via PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 How is it still early? Over halfway through met winter and rapidly approaching 2/3rds over. We are behind big time. Can we force overtime (March) and get AN snow? Possibly but teleconnections don’t look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, JustinRP37 said: How is it still early? Over halfway through met winter and rapidly approaching 2/3rds over. We are behind big time. Can we force overtime (March) and get AN snow? Possibly but teleconnections don’t look good Snowiest time of the year is January 20th to February 28th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: How is it still early? Over halfway through met winter and rapidly approaching 2/3rds over. We are behind big time. Can we force overtime (March) and get AN snow? Possibly but teleconnections don’t look good Normal year to date snowfall is 9.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Any other models showing this ? This one has shown it a few runs in a row now 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: New thread open for mid to long range threats. Please discuss these possible systems in that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Snowiest time of the year is January 20th to February 28th You don’t have to tell me that it’s statistics. But look at the stats for winters with stats similar to where we are now. I don’t like using analogs but to say everything is going fine is like saying you can fight your own house fire when it has spread to half the house. Sure you might be able to do it, but would I take on that bet? Not likely. I would love to have the optimism of you and 88 but at some point we have to take a look and say hmmm this isn’t what the people who said we’d be above normal for snowfall said would happen this far. I gave many examples of why I thought January would be warmer in December and I was nearly laughed off the board. It sucked. I don’t like losing two months of my favorite season but me saying it will make a big comeback won’t make it happen. I said it yesterday that the Mets who routinely predict snowy and cold have been more right than wrong since 2000 not because of their skill but because it HAS been snowier, much more so than normal. It is a conformational bias. Long range forecasting is an imperfect science. Anything over 50% is a good long range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 That's a hail Mary type of threat late next week. Very little cold air but the track may not be terrible. Could be good for New England where they have more breathing room. +PNA & MJO passing thru 7 likely helps. Afterwards the MJO basically stays in the circle. I'm in favor of it popping out near 8 after Feb 10 with lagged impacts 10-14 days later. Early forecasts show it starting that loop as we begin Feb. Should set the stage for a late winter comeback Feb 20 through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: We have scored 3 accumulating snowfalls to date, so while this winter has shown it's hand, we should expect at least 1 more window. While the pack is definitely bad, it's nowhere near as bad as 11/12 was. You did a great job recognizing the overall background state. Thanks. The good news is we still never had a season that was a complete shoutout. Even in the seasons with the most challenging patterns, we have always found a way to get at least some snow. You wonder how bad the pattern would have to be for NYC to finish with just a T or 0. I think Philly came close in 72-73 with a T. But NYC always had at least some accumulation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Give me one 12" storm and I'll be sated. @CPcantmeasuresnow is already covered on that front. What did you guys end up with from the early December storm? I thought I remember @IrishRob17 and @snywx saying they had over a foot from that? On the other side of the river where you guys are it was that much less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Normal year to date snowfall is 9.0" How much have you received compared to that 9" average to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Euro just gave the mid Atlantic a snowstorm next weekend Mid Atlantic as in Virginia, Delaware, Maryland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: What did you guys end up with from the early December storm? I thought I remember @IrishRob17 and @snywx saying they had over a foot from that? On the other side of the river where you guys are it was that much less? We had lots of non-snow precip here. I wound up with about 7" of snow, sleet, and grauple, packed down by the interspersed periods of rain. Depth never exceeded 6", although it did stick around for weeks on account of the high density and cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro just gave the mid Atlantic a snowstorm next weekend Mountain areas yes coast is rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro just gave the mid Atlantic a snowstorm next weekend This cannot be. I've read numerous posts here over the last few days that says winter around here is most likely or possibly over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Funny how March was the snowiest month of the season for 4 out of the 5 last years in NYC. This is more typical for the Rockies and Plains than NYC. Will February be able to score a victory over March this year? Maybe the extra day in February this year can grab some snow away from what would have normally been March 1st. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 M M M 4.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Another rathe ugly eps run. As the vortex sits in ak with a ridge near Hudson Bay. Canada is really flooded with above normal pac air. The ridge from Hawaii is into the west coast. This look is locked on the eps all the way into the first week of February. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: How much have you received compared to that 9" average to date? About 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, Stormlover74 said: About 7 2" less than average to date is not very far off than average. Think about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Another rathe ugly eps run. As the vortex sits in ak with a ridge near Hudson Bay. Canada is really flooded with above normal pac air. The ridge from Hawaii is into the west coast. This look is locked on the eps all the way into the first week of February. Weeklies will be interesting tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Weeklies will be interesting tomorrow I would expect them to kick the can on any favorable pattern until mid February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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