January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wdrag]

21 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 35.4degs , or 3degs. AN 

Month to date is  +8.5[41.0].        Should be about +7.0[39.3].

37* here at 6am.

GFS is +4 and zippo Snow for remainder of month.      Ends near +6.8[39.1].     GEM is coldest and has  7" of Snow near 26th.      EURO should stay at home for duration.

Curious what prompted the EURO comment?  Thanks, Walt

[bluewave]

We are currently in the top 5 for warmest January monthly minimum temperatures around the area.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1937	25	0
2	1990	24	0
-	1932	24	0
3	2002	21	0
-	1993	21	0
-	1953	21	0
4	2020	20	13
-	1949	20	0
5	2001	18	0
-	1913	18	0
-	1911	18	0

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1990	21	1
2	1953	18	0
3	1993	17	2
4	2020	16	13
-	2002	16	0
5	1960	15	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1990	21	0
2	2020	18	13
-	1993	18	0
3	2002	15	0
-	1998	15	0
4	1995	14	0
5	2016	13	0
-	2006	13	0

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Cmc gives Inland areas a big snowstorm next weekend. Very close for the city.

Gfs is well north but the gefs is a coastal which is really close

We track

Track aside, you really need a perfect storm with an airmass that wants to produce mid 40s at the coast.

You essentially need a Feb 2018 type storm. Bookended by well AN temps 

 

[snowman19]

It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around  

[ForestHillWx]

It looks like winter outside in my area. 32 degrees wit snow cover.

[NYCweatherNOW]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around  

He only got a coating yesterday so it must have melted 

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, Snow88 said:

LOL

Next weekend ?

With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. 

Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place.

[White Gorilla]

55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. 

Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place.

That is how it looks today.  We will see how things evolve.  I rule out nothing. 

[White Gorilla]

My ideal rest of the winter would be a very snowy Feb including a huge KU, a triple phaser with feet of snow followed by an early Spring, gradual warning to limit high flooding from snowpack melt and pleasant warmth through April and May.  Many of you may agree.  But alas, mother nature doesn't usually listen to anyone's wishes.  :).  It will probably turn out to to exact opposite given history and trends.  I can see a better February for snow lovers realistically however.  It won't take much. 

 

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. 

Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place.

It CAN work for some snow, but it would be an anamoly and have to bomb out just south east of us. Doubtful of course but something to pass the time till we get a more favorable pattern later on.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around  

Had a fox running around in the backyard yesterday. Sucker got over a six foot fence somehow. Thought is was a cat at first.

[MJO812]

Winter might be over for anything sustained
Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5.

Another busted winter by many people.

[Juliancolton]

24 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

My ideal rest of the winter would be a very snowy Feb including a huge KU, a triple phaser with feet of snow followed by an early Spring, gradual warning to limit high flooding from snowpack melt and pleasant warmth through April and May.  Many of you may agree.  But alas, mother nature doesn't usually listen to anyone's wishes.  :).  It will probably turn out to to exact opposite given history and trends.  I can see a better February for snow lovers realistically however.  It won't take much. 

 

Give me one 12" storm and I'll be sated. @CPcantmeasuresnow is already covered on that front. 

[495weatherguy]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter might be over for anything sustained
Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5.

Another busted winter by many people.

Where is the promised "flip" on January 20th and a month of winter?

Every winter cannot be a blockbuster---we don't live in an area that supports that(Long Island)   

The last 20 years have been incredible from a snow lovers' point of view.

 

[MJO812]

Yuck

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

Where is the promised "flip" on January 20th and a month of winter?

Every winter cannot be a blockbuster---we don't live in an area that supports that(Long Island)   

The last 20 years have been incredible from a snow lovers' point of view.

 

Models including the eps did look great for a pattern change but of course the models flipped. They have been atrocious this winter. 

[495weatherguy]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Models including the eps did look great for a pattern change but of course the models flipped. They have been atrocious this winter. 

I completely understand that the models have been atrocious---no problem with that occurring.

My question is why are people so sure that they are right and belittle people who question their forecasts?  Haven't we seen countless forecasts bust?

With the weather nothing is set in stone

We all have our biases and desirous outcomes, but we cannot alter the weather

[White Gorilla]

LR forecasting is incredibly challenging, hence the fun.  This is why we are here.  I don't know the reasons for such high model inaccuracy in the long range, but I wonder if there is a correlation between model accuracy and state of the Pacific. 

[Cfa]

I still find myself expecting “the big one” to be right around the corner, but is it (almost) safe to say that the excessive snowfall pattern of the 2010’s has ran its course? Last winter was the first with BN snowfall in what felt like ages, and this winter isn’t shaping up to be any better.

[mattinpa]

26 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Where is the promised "flip" on January 20th and a month of winter?

Every winter cannot be a blockbuster---we don't live in an area that supports that(Long Island)   

The last 20 years have been incredible from a snow lovers' point of view.

 

I think we can get a couple significant storms in there. At least the GFS shows some coastal potential after next weekend. 

[NittanyWx]

Synoptically we have some decent pieces in place for next weekend.   This is the 'window' that I think makes the most sense for a chance at a more significant system.   Behind that, I'm not loving the way the pattern sets up.  But these transition periods historically are where I tend to find we get tagged.

 

Something to track this week before it gets boring again.

[nycwinter]

47 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter might be over for anything sustained
Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5.

Another busted winter by many people.

yesterday you were confident next weekend might be s snow opportunity what happened?

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Winter might be over for anything sustained
Mjo on every model wants to go into the cod and possibly into 4 or 5.

Another busted winter by many people.

Just a few days ago it was into 8... don’t trust those things you’re going to go insane.

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Synoptically we have some decent pieces in place for next weekend.   This is the 'window' that I think makes the most sense for a chance at a more significant system.   Behind that, I'm not loving the way the pattern sets up.  But these transition periods historically are where I tend to find we get tagged.

 

Something to track this week before it gets boring again.

What I do not get is the sense that once the bad pattern sets in it's all over as in it will not correct to a better pattern in the future. Unless there is something about the upcoming pattern that historically sticks for months?

[weatherpruf]

32 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I still find myself expecting “the big one” to be right around the corner, but is it (almost) safe to say that the excessive snowfall pattern of the 2010’s has ran its course? Last winter was the first with BN snowfall in what felt like ages, and this winter isn’t shaping up to be any better.

COuld be. Then one year it will suddenly turn around. that's how it is here. For more consistent snow you have to move where it does that every year. This isn't the area for that. So we enjoy when we get some. Now, many people don't enjoy it and would be content if it stayed mild or snowless or both forever. 

[495weatherguy]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What I do not get is the sense that once the bad pattern sets in it's all over as in it will not correct to a better pattern in the future. Unless there is something about the upcoming pattern that historically sticks for months?

excellent post

[the_other_guy]

Light snow shower 41F

[bluewave]

While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term.

 

 

 

Bad fail for the GFS and CMC. The pattern looks exceedingly ugly going into early February, after next weekend looks to start the real ugliness, (post 1/26) not that this week looks good either....

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term.

 

 

 

We have scored 3 accumulating snowfalls to date, so while this winter has shown it's hand, we should expect at least 1 more window. While the pack is definitely bad, it's nowhere near as bad as 11/12 was. You did a great job recognizing the overall background state.