January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And every model has been good ? Come on now.

 

Winter isnt over at all and you know it. 

not going to get much help from indicies next 14 days plus EPO is going positive - will MJO ever make it into  8 ? PNA NAO look kind of flat near neutral going forward and AO is showing more of a positive tendency ……….

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Its def not over.  It's stupid to think so.

it's over for anything sustained.  We can get snow events, but it will not be the winter many hoped for.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude look at the statistics and long range. You have two weeks in January (next week looks warmer than average) but we have one signal to track. By the end of February in these parts if you are BN for snowfall you almost always run BN for the season. Not saying it isn't possible, but you are exactly the type of poster I was mentioning about above. When someone says 'it's warm' you say 'but its not over!' Met winter is half over at this point (rapidly approaching 2/3s over) and we are below average for snow and above average for warmth. The month will finish among the top 10 all time warmest. Looking at analogs (which people love when they are cold) it does not look good for finishing the season above average for snow. That is all. I don't think anyone is throwing in the towel except for people that love warmth, but you cannot possibly be sitting there right now thinking A) this winter has gone well for people that like snow and B ) that it might not pan out for those that love snow. I am hoping VT does great because President's weekend I'll be skiing Killington with hopefully tons of snow. If the winter sucks then I'll just go to the spa and look at the mountain and think what could have been.

Northern NE is fine-they did well last and will do well this year....

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's over for anything sustained.  We can get snow events, but it will not be the winter many hoped for.

We shall see but any statements saying its def over or not are stupid. 

[Allsnow]

Eps is ugly to end January. Vortex into AK with a dateline ridge into the west coast. 

[JustinRP37]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Northern NE is fine-they did well last and will do well this year....

Yeah they had a pretty great year last year. Hasn't been as cold as normal, but I enjoy that when skiing now. I've noticed in my 30s now I'm not as warm as I was in my young 20s haha.

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly to end January. Vortex into AK with a dateline ridge into the west coast. 

The change in recent days is another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. It wasn't long ago that the signs pointed to a very good pattern for late January. Now it looks like garbage. Thankfully we're getting this snow event today so January doesn't end up being a shutout.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The GEFS and GEPS do not agree with EPS  and the EPS don’t agree with themselves from 5 days ago. Probably won’t look as bad as the EPS are showing but not a huge wintry pattern either. However late January and early February you can still get some snow in a hostile pattern. Probably about the only time of winter that it could be possible 

And there is a threat next weekend to watch. The pattern isnt bad.

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude look at the statistics and long range. You have two weeks in January (next week looks warmer than average) but we have one signal to track. By the end of February in these parts if you are BN for snowfall you almost always run BN for the season. Not saying it isn't possible, but you are exactly the type of poster I was mentioning about above. When someone says 'it's warm' you say 'but its not over!' Met winter is half over at this point (rapidly approaching 2/3s over) and we are below average for snow and above average for warmth. The month will finish among the top 10 all time warmest. Looking at analogs (which people love when they are cold) it does not look good for finishing the season above average for snow. That is all. I don't think anyone is throwing in the towel except for people that love warmth, but you cannot possibly be sitting there right now thinking A) this winter has gone well for people that like snow and B ) that it might not pan out for those that love snow. I am hoping VT does great because President's weekend I'll be skiing Killington with hopefully tons of snow. If the winter sucks then I'll just go to the spa and look at the mountain and think what could have been.

North of I90 and above 1500 feet isn't doing terribly so far this year and from about that high point on Rt 7 by Manchester (VT) above 2k it's been pretty good. K is looking good and by late Feb will be typical midwinter conditions. You're good to go.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

it's over for anything sustained.  We can get snow events, but it will not be the winter many hoped for.

Very few of them really are. Even in the great winters people whine. I wasn't here in 96 but I bet everyone bugged out when the greatness got washed away before it got even better.

38 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yeah they had a pretty great year last year. Hasn't been as cold as normal, but I enjoy that when skiing now. I've noticed in my 30s now I'm not as warm as I was in my young 20s haha.

Give it another 20 years. You start wearing a sweater around the house when it's 40* outside  

[CIK62]

Another pukey winter month analog  crawls out from under the snow less sod of Central Park.        Now it is 1953, a season that had just 5.5" of snow after Dec. 31.

The GFS is now +10 for the first 3 days of February.       

btw:  Any one know what the Highest Low T for January is?      Maybe 19 in 2002?       We may not beat 20.         In addition, the run that had 24" of wet snow on Jan. 25,26 here was less than three days ago>>>>>06Z, Jan. 16

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

[Brian5671]

47 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Another pukey winter month analog  crawls out from under the snow less sod of Central Park.        Now it is 1953, a season that had just 5.5" of snow after Dec. 31.

The GFS is now +10 for the first 3 days of February.       

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Looks terrible going forward.   No real cold anywhere. (hopefully we can get a thread the needle snow event)

-

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks terrible going forward.   No real cold anywhere. (hopefully we can get a thread the needle snow event)

-

This showed a great pattern last week

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

And there is a threat next weekend to watch. The pattern isnt bad.

temps in the 40's next weekend how is that a threat?

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, Bluesnow said:

relative newcomer here

Anything beyond 5 days pointless to look at. Weather forecasting has gone backwards

why are there so many posters on here who are so negative and anti cold and snow in every post!! just curious 

 

by the way check out Newfoundland this winter  just finished off a 36” plus 80 mph blizzard and over 100” since Christmas 

 

 

 

Most people are not negative and anti cold, just realists. Many do not have biases, just present the data. If anything the board has a cold bias overall because most of us are winter lovers, just aggravated with this winter. Moving forward there isn't much to jump for joy with at least through the beginning of February if not longer. Here is to hoping. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

temps in the 40's next weekend how is that a threat?

What is today ?

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What is today ?

i recall  more than 10 days before it happened the euro predicted 60's for nyc did it feel warm....

[donsutherland1]

A fast-moving storm brought accumulating snow, sleet, and later rain to parts of the region. As of 4 pm, snowfall amounts included:

Albany: 0.6"
Bridgeport: 1.0"
Islip: 1.0"
New York City: 1.3"
Newark: 0.8"
Philadelphia: Trace

A second round of snow moved into the area and continued into the early part of the evening leading to additional accumulations.

Overnight and tomorrow, the system will pull away from the region, leading to clearing skies. In its wake, another shot of cold air will follow. However, the cold will likely be short-lived.

Warmer conditions will likely develop during the middle of next week. Cold could return during the closing days of January, but the risk that January could end on a mild note has increased, particularly on the EPS. A mild finish would represent a big change from the previous scenario where Pacific-driven changes would lead to the development of a colder pattern to continue into the start of February.

Meanwhile, in Europe where winter has largely been absent, no late-month changes are in order. The warmth appears poised to roll on through the end of the month and into the start February. More record high temperatures could be challenged or broken there during the last 10 days of January.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -8.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.380.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 26. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 17, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 3.184 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 3.171.

This was the 9th consecutive day during which the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above. This is the longest such stretch since January 27-February 11, 2018 when the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 16 consecutive days. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8.

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period as a whole would be colder than normal overall. However, uncertainty about the extended range has increased and a warmer than normal outcome now appears more likely than not (perhaps something closer to the January 1993 outcome even as the week 3-4 outcome will be colder than the week 1-2 period).

A very warm first and second half of January does not necessarily mean that February will be warmer than normal. There were five such cases following a January 1-15 mean temperature of 40.0° or above. 1932 and 1998 were warmer than normal in February. 2006 was near normal. 1937 and 1950 were colder than normal. Overall, for New York City, the coefficient of determination between the January and February temperature is just 0.07 (1869-2019).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 98% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 37.5° in New York City.

[EastonSN+]

I can't believe I had more snow to date in 11/12 at 11.5 for the year (last snow in January).

However that last snow event I felt like it was likely the last event of the year.

This year feels different. A bit more hopeful.

I feel that we will get 1 or 2 more events this year.

[Dan76]

6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

And there is a threat next weekend to watch. The pattern isnt bad.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Another pukey winter month analog  crawls out from under the snow less sod of Central Park.        Now it is 1953, a season that had just 5.5" of snow after Dec. 31.

The GFS is now +10 for the first 3 days of February.       

btw:  Any one know what the Highest Low T for January is?      Maybe 19 in 2002?       We may not beat 20.         In addition, the run that had 24" of wet snow on Jan. 25,26 here was less than three days ago>>>>>06Z, Jan. 16

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

25 degrees in January 1937.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

And your point?

You  must be new if you dont  think the models will change.

[SHELEG]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And your point?

You  must be new if you dont  think the models will change.

yeah latest GFS now has a High in south East Canada

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, Bluesnow said:

relative newcomer here

Anything beyond 5 days pointless to look at. Weather forecasting has gone backwards

why are there so many posters on here who are so negative and anti cold and snow in every post!! just curious 

 

by the way check out Newfoundland this winter  just finished off a 36” plus 80 mph blizzard and over 100” since Christmas 

 

 

 

Because this winter has been a turd. I'm frankly planning my garden and preparing my fishing equipment. Might finish reading War and Peace. Gotta re-read Moby Dick first....

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly to end January. Vortex into AK with a dateline ridge into the west coast. 

JB is looking more stupid each passing day. He said 93/94 and 14/15 was coming in Feb.

What a joke!

Oh well on to late Feb/March for our next snowstorm. I predict a massive Greenland block as we enter March.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

JB is looking more stupid each passing day. He said 93/94 and 14/15 was coming in Feb.

What a joke!

Oh well on to late Feb/March for our next snowstorm. I predict a massive Greenland block as we enter March.

LOL

Next weekend ?

[MJO812]

Cmc gives Inland areas a big snowstorm next weekend. Very close for the city.

Gfs is well north but the gefs is a coastal which is really close

We track

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

yeah latest GFS now has a High in south East Canada

Gefs is also favorable for next weekend

All the models have the low hitting a block and then shifting the storm east.

[wdrag]

Holding off on starting this as a topic (25th-26th) till i see a little better chance for an inch or 2 of snow LI...  i do think this is something to watch. Great Lakes low with a possible secondary L to the mid Atlantic coast. Marginal temps for snow-ice in an above normal temp regime during the coldest time of the year.  Maps posted are several LR tools... stats.  Only rather low chance of ensembles 3+ I84 corridor at this time. Nicely modeled (GFS  version) confluence zone se Canada giving us a chance of a sfc high to the north and definite good 500 mb jet structure for an event...but is it all rain. Lets see what happens. 

AT 654AM I added the GEFS plumes for LGA.  Right now its at 1" of snow.   There 00z/13 GEFS LGA plumes had 4" of snow with over 1" qpf.  00z/14 onward, LGA was in the 1.5-2.5 mean for Yesterdays event, which I think is excellent consistency. 

I expect the GEFS/EPS is going to continue with near 1" qpf for this coming event and its a matter of trends on snowfall.  I still want to see 12z/19 EPS/GEFS probs for 3+ inches next weekend before comitting.  It's still possible for all rain LI, especially with our winter in progress. No rush here... savoring yesterdays south-southwest wind bonus.  659A/19

 

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

JB is looking more stupid each passing day. He said 93/94 and 14/15 was coming in Feb.

What a joke!

Oh well on to late Feb/March for our next snowstorm. I predict a massive Greenland block as we enter March.

He’s lost a lot of credibility last 2 years.  His temp forecast is nothing remotely close to what’s happening 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 35.4degs , or 3degs. AN 

Month to date is  +8.5[41.0].        Should be about +7.0[39.3] by the 27th.

37* here at 6am.    42* already by 9am.       43* at 10am.      42* by Noon.

GFS is +4 and zippo Snow for remainder of month.   First 3 days of Feb. are +13.   Ends Jan. near +6.8[39.1].     GEM is coldest and has  7" of Snow near 26th.      EURO should stay at home for duration.

Winter to date is now +3.6, 49 days..