January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Dan76]

6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has a nice  coastal signal for next weekend 

Sure does. 

 

[gravitylover]

12/1/NW0-3/OVC

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Kind of like a recent study on the AMO.

Both were part of the same study.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

It is quite interesting, Chris, and I've been ruminating on some hypotheses re: the time-lag and distorted response. One issue, in my view, is base-state resonance. Sometimes the MJO/intraseasonal signal is misaligned with the base state, and as such, when it propagates through typically conducive phases, the N HEM response may not be bonafide/favorable due to the misalignment with the background indicators. For example, 2002-03 had a much more classic AAM/GWO and hadley/walker cell structures concordant with a canonical El Nino, and thus when MJO circulated to 8, we had a more genuine N HEM response.

Another issue, the PDO has become much more negative over the past month, as last winter was. This amplifies -AAM resonance and retards proper +AAM transport.

Great post, Tom. Misalignment has been a common theme recently. Last winter we saw the the Niña-like warmth in the WPAC result in the uncoupled El Niño. So we had the Niña-like ridge axis stuck north of Hawaii. This year we have experienced a continuation of that persistent ridge axis north of Hawaii. Now we are getting the amplification of the ridge in SE Canada with the Niño-like +AAM spike. But a piece of that ridge north of Hawaii holds on into the 6-10 day forecast.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Sure does. 

 

Need cold air or a large enough storm to override what looks like a warm pattern next weekend

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Need cold air or a large enough storm to override what looks like a warm pattern next weekend

could be a rain to snow storm if it were to be a slow mover-anything fast will outrun the incoming colder air mass.   We finally get a nice track and then have no cold air!   Can't make this stuff up.    

[Allsnow]

Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. 
 

The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. 

Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. 
 

The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. 

Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

Another failed winter by many. What's the point of long range forecasting anymore? It's a joke.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Sure does. 

 

It's still a coastal

Go troll somewhere else

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

could be a rain to snow storm if it were to be a slow mover-anything fast will outrun the incoming colder air mass.   We finally get a nice track and then have no cold air!   Can't make this stuff up.    

Bad couple of winters

Hopefully its only a small positive departure for Feb so the close in ski resorts keep it going. January was pretty brutal for them

 

 

[Snowshack]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another failed winter by many. What's the point of long range forecasting anymore? It's a joke.

Its still just an evolving science.  The mistake made over and over again is getting vested in these LR forecasts - whether it be because we like the predicted outcome or whether we're going down with the ship while defending our own long range forecast.  We have some great posters that make clear the risks in the LR discussions.

Discouraging to see things looking bleak at this late stage - but who knows, there is still room for a decent few weeks.   Prime winter is sure getting wasted though.

[HeadInTheClouds]

18/2, feels like snow. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. 
 

The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. 

Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

Do you think that March will be kind to us similar to last year and most March months this decade?

[JustinRP37]

41 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another failed winter by many. What's the point of long range forecasting anymore? It's a joke.

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s  because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen. 

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s  because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen. 

Best post in the thread.  Confirmation bias is a terrible thing, lol.  

[MJO812]

Gfs isnt far off for next weekend. Just need the low to pass under the area. It then shows another chance after that.

The MJO is key. We have to see if the Euro and GFS are wrong.

[the_other_guy]

42 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s  because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen. 

Absolutely! AccuWeather was spot on this winter. they said mild and below normal snow

And frankly we had posters on here that kept insisting it was a cold pattern After it became obvious this was just another transient shot

There will be more transient shots between AN temps and hopefully That plays to our advantage with snow

[psv88]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bro winter isn’t over how are they right?

January will end up at least +5, December was AN. Unless February is -6, winter will be warmer than normal. 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bro winter isn’t over how are they right?

You have 6 good weeks. Next week looks torchy (storm possibility aside)

Down to 5 weeks. If you notice it’s dark past 5 PM now, we have about two weeks left before the average temperature starts going back up.

 

Anything can happen. But you clearly have a marginal pattern and you start running out the clock

[NYCweatherNOW]

6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You have 6 good weeks. Next week looks torchy (storm possibility aside)

Down to 5 weeks. If you notice it’s dark past 5 PM now, we have about two weeks left before the average temperature starts going back up.

 

Anything can happen. But you clearly have a marginal pattern and you start running out the clock

I understand that but it’s not over, this is when it snows the most late January until early March. 

[EastonSN+]

Take with a grain of salt, but CFS weekly still looks good! Probably cause only model going to phase 8

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I understand that but it’s not over, this is when it snows the most late January until early March. 

You surely realize you are the biggest weenie on all of the weather boards right? All snow all the time for you.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Take with a grain of salt, but CFS weekly still looks good! Probably cause only model going to phase 8

It has been consistent 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I understand that but it’s not over, this is when it snows the most late January until early March. 

Its def not over.  It's stupid to think so.

[MJO812]

The euro MJO has been awful this winter.  It has played catchup plenty of times. 

[uofmiami]

28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You surely realize you are the biggest weenie on all of the weather boards right? All snow all the time for you.

Anthony has passed the torch.  Took long enough for that happen. 

[JustinRP37]

30 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I understand that but it’s not over, this is when it snows the most late January until early March. 

Dude look at the statistics and long range. You have two weeks in January (next week looks warmer than average) but we have one signal to track. By the end of February in these parts if you are BN for snowfall you almost always run BN for the season. Not saying it isn't possible, but you are exactly the type of poster I was mentioning about above. When someone says 'it's warm' you say 'but its not over!' Met winter is half over at this point (rapidly approaching 2/3s over) and we are below average for snow and above average for warmth. The month will finish among the top 10 all time warmest. Looking at analogs (which people love when they are cold) it does not look good for finishing the season above average for snow. That is all. I don't think anyone is throwing in the towel except for people that love warmth, but you cannot possibly be sitting there right now thinking A) this winter has gone well for people that like snow and B ) that it might not pan out for those that love snow. I am hoping VT does great because President's weekend I'll be skiing Killington with hopefully tons of snow. If the winter sucks then I'll just go to the spa and look at the mountain and think what could have been.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude look at the statistics and long range. You have two weeks in January (next week looks warmer than average) but we have one signal to track. By the end of February in these parts if you are BN for snowfall you almost always run BN for the season. Not saying it isn't possible, but you are exactly the type of poster I was mentioning about above. When someone says 'it's warm' you say 'but its not over!' Met winter is half over at this point (rapidly approaching 2/3s over) and we are below average for snow and above average for warmth. The month will finish among the top 10 all time warmest. Looking at analogs (which people love when they are cold) it does not look good for finishing the season above average for snow. That is all. I don't think anyone is throwing in the towel except for people that love warmth, but you cannot possibly be sitting there right now thinking A) this winter has gone well for people that like snow and B ) that it might not pan out for those that love snow. I am hoping VT does great because President's weekend I'll be skiing Killington with hopefully tons of snow. If the winter sucks then I'll just go to the spa and look at the mountain and think what could have been.

Pretty much when Dec doesn't deliver you can count on low amounts ( at least in CNJ ) for the remaining season, with some exceptions of course, because it's weather, and you never really know; I can remember a few decent and even big storms after crap Decembers, but not many. Thought this Dec would be different when we started with early snow, but it may have been a bit too early, ( early snows seem to signal less snowy winters, and yes I know the sample is small so spare us ) and then nothing else for weeks. Now things can still happen, but most folks will tell you they are pleased to get through this much of winter with no serious snow. I got the snowblower ready this morning ( this is the kiss of death ) and I'm pretty confident I won't need it based on what I see unfolding. And March in my area is not the time for big snows. That leaves Feb....

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It has been consistent 

And it's been garbage.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

And it's been garbage.

And every model has been good ? Come on now.

 

Winter isnt over at all and you know it.