PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Read about what I posted on the MJO. Even phase 8 does not signal cold weather is imminent! It is only significantly correlated with increased storminess. That could still mean rain, or snow to rain. This is your typical 500mb response to p8 in Feb. It`s all you can ask for. It does not have to guarantee snow, nothing does , but if you want a favorable 500 in Feb you want p8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Boring run for sure-granted after day 6 it's all fantasy but it has 2 cutters the entire run after this weekend's cutter. At least give us an exciting Southeaster or something.... But it showed 30” through the end of the run for NYC 3 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, PB-99 said: This is your typical 500mb response to p8 in Feb. It`s all you can ask for. It does not have to guarantee snow, nothing does , but if you want a favorable 500 in Feb you want p8 I always enjoy your posts. The LR doesn’t look great on the GFS but there is still cold in between storms. What do you think are the chances one of those storms gives us significant snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I always enjoy your posts. The LR doesn’t look great on the GFS but there is still cold in between storms. What do you think are the chances one of those storms gives us significant snow? The GEM and GEFS keep this alive. However all the LR guidance has been terrible so I would really wait this year for the surfaces to respond and be close to being believable. But significant, I would hold off on that for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, PB-99 said: He was only speaking about the MJO going into p8. Most here didn`t think it would go there, but you have the guidance, Timmy and Tom agreeing that we prob go into p8. Can`t just stick that aside. It`s not always about snow. If we end up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall it will be looked at as a bad winter regardless of how cold it gets- thats why we have bad memories of the 80s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Cold day out there, current temp 28/DP 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HELLO THERE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: HELLO THERE Yeah, not gonna work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, not gonna work No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, not gonna work Now the Interior is close , it`s not always about NYC. 2 days ago it was Chicago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) Did you bother to look at the surface map ? It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 At 222 it`s plus 1 at 850 and - 1 at 925 This just went from a low to Chicago to one off the Delmarva with 8 days to go. I would keep an eye on it, it`s different than what this was doing yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: The mjo the last two years has been incredibly frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol. Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out. The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, not gonna work Not the point. This was a lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Did you bother to look at the surface map ? It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 on the canadian? No it's in the 40's (edit-sorry I thought this was the CMC you were referencing-did not see the euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Temps are in the mid 20s in the H/V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Not the point. This was a lakes cutter Agreed the models are all over the place. It’s a good sign that it’s closer that’s all we can look at right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The expansion of the WP warm pool has been favoring the warmer MJO phases. Indeed. One can see the modeled tropical forcing returning to those spatial domains in February, which will play a role in the developing February regime as delineated in my update post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: on the canadian? No it's in the 40's Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ? You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL Oh Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Temps are in the mid 20s in the H/V that's not great either-awesome track yet's it's rain back to JB.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ? You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL Oh Brian that "cold air" is rain back to JB and some ZR/Sleet in the Hudson Valley. Better than yesterday too, but pattern still not anything to get excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: that's not great either-awesome track yet's it's rain back to JB.... Dude, I said Hudson Valley vs a cutter to Chicago, you posted no cold air until Maine. The Euro is in the 20`s N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No cold air. (road trip to Maine?) These are posts that make this place look misinformed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Dude, I said Hudson Valley vs a cutter to Chicago, you posted no cold air until Maine. The Euro is in the 20`s N and W you're putting lipstick on a pig---..and who cares anyway it's a 216 hr prog on an OP model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that "cold air" is rain back to JB and some ZR/Sleet in the Hudson Valley. Better than yesterday too, but pattern still not anything to get excited about It's a day 9/10 system, why are we even arguing about temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, SnoSki14 said: It's a day 9/10 system, why are we even arguing about temps. I know right? I took the bait... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: I know right? I took the bait... Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught LOL. I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro. My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass (outside of ME/NH/VT and even that is retreating) and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer... I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL. I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro. My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer... I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it. I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva. I actually hope this becomes the 50/50 low for the next storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: I actually hope this becomes the 50/50 low for the next storm... I hope there`s a next storm ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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