January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

NYC finally dropped below 23 degrees. This was the 2nd warmest minimum temperature from 12-21 to 1-16 on record.

 

Central Park   FAIR      22   5  48 NW8    

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 21 to Jan 16	Missing Count
1	1987-01-16	24	0
2	2020-01-16	23	0
3	2013-01-16	22	0
-	2007-01-16	22	0
-	1983-01-16	22	0
-	1967-01-16	22	0
-	1890-01-16	22	0

[Eduardo]

Last year, I finished with a single-digit snow total.  Today is the first time I fear that may repeat itself.  Looking pretty ugly moving forward.

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Last year, I finished with a single-digit snow total.  Today is the first time I fear that may repeat itself.  Looking pretty ugly moving forward.

OP models are a joke after 5-6 days, but it's amazing to see them with zero snow for us for the entirety of the run after this weekend.   Not even a 384 hr fantasy blizzard

[JustinRP37]

I've been saying over and over that were are mere mortals on the planet. People try to predict the weather with certainty 7+ days out, when even accuracy within 24 hours can be terrible. All this week I heard about the MJO over and over and over again on social media and here. So, being a research scientist, I decided to take a closer look. The MJO does not guarantee cold or even snow. There is a significant relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and southeastern New England snowfall and Nor'Easter frequency found in multiple studies. Two studies , however, found NO relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and temperature in southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic (Barrett et al. 2015 and Klotzbach 2016). Likely, the increase in snow cover during MJO entering 7-8-1 is driven by increased storminess and NOT a decrease in melt rate. So just because the MJO may be in a good spot, does not necessarily mean we will see the increase in storminess. While the MJO can be used, the other teleconnections and other factors must be monitored. I still want to read more and study these effects, but I know some on this board probably know all this. 

[doncat]

Not only mild this month but quiet too... Even with this upcoming event, not a lot of precip... Will put most stations near an inch for the month so far and not much showing up in the medium to long range, as of now.

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, doncat said:

Not only mild this month but quiet too... Even with this upcoming event, not a lot of precip... Will put most stations near an inch for the month so far and not much showing up in the medium to long range, as of now.

 

Reminds be a bit of Jan 2002 and Jan 2012-a very warm dry month with one moderate snow event around 1/20 (which was the biggest of the winter both times)

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think that there is also another wild card. We keep seeing that ridge build over the warm pool around Hawaii. Very tough to get the ridge into Alaska with that feature there. I mentioned the ridge pull back that we normally see in an El Niño February the other day. I just hope that this more Niña-like feature doesn’t interfere.

 

Yeah if the dateline ridge comes back that would also keep the epo form going -. The weeklies are nine chilling for the start of February so perhaps it is going to score a win. It was the first to see the Niña pattern for early January. 

[PB-99]

So here is what I expected from 2 weeks ago that we would go from this,

 

to this, 

 

Temp wise that`s a def flip at 2m

 

 

I also expected that we would not get stuck in p4/ 5/ 6 earlier this month like some of the models said , nor would we get stuck in p6 

 

That also looks do be correct 

The Vp 200`s match the CFS yesterday

 

 

So what happened after this ? 

Day 6 to 12 in response to a spike in the AAM stuck a massive ridge over Hudson Bay.

Plus 3 over 5 days in late Jan isn`t exactly a torch and I wouldn`t break out the shorts, but these warmer spikes usually outperform.

 

 

So right in the middle of the return of the 20th, and the pushing away of the SE ridge a ridge in Canada shows up, go figure. 

Do you believe the CFS as we head into Feb 

 

 

Or the GEPS ? 

 

Or the EPS which is following the MJO back into p6.

 

Feb has always been my best winter month and I wanted to begin the period on the 20th. The 5 day period threw some dynamite on the fire for my start, but all is not lost yet IMO

 

 

[doncat]

Be nice to have a cold Feb...the last two were very mild...Loved 2015.

[weatherpruf]

32 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I've been saying over and over that were are mere mortals on the planet. People try to predict the weather with certainty 7+ days out, when even accuracy within 24 hours can be terrible. All this week I heard about the MJO over and over and over again on social media and here. So, being a research scientist, I decided to take a closer look. The MJO does not guarantee cold or even snow. There is a significant relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and southeastern New England snowfall and Nor'Easter frequency found in multiple studies. Two studies , however, found NO relationship between the MJO entering 7-8-1 and temperature in southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic (Barrett et al. 2015 and Klotzbach 2016). Likely, the increase in snow cover during MJO entering 7-8-1 is driven by increased storminess and NOT a decrease in melt rate. So just because the MJO may be in a good spot, does not necessarily mean we will see the increase in storminess. While the MJO can be used, the other teleconnections and other factors must be monitored. I still want to read more and study these effects, but I know some on this board probably know all this. 

Thanks for weighing in. Excellent points. 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah if the dateline ridge comes back that would also keep the epo form going -. The weeklies are nine chilling for the start of February so perhaps it is going to score a win. It was the first to see the Niña pattern for early January. 

Yeah, we need to get a shift in that ridge position north of Hawaii to allow more of a -EPO to develop. We usually see the ridge position pull back toward NW Canada and Alaska during and El Niño February. Hopefully, that ridge north of Hawaii doesn’t interfere. That region experienced a historic marine heatwave in 2019. You can see how persistent that ridge has been this winter.

 

 

[Isotherm]

Updated thoughts on the pattern, posted in my winter outlook thread:

Key points included therein: brief recapitulation of winter to date, largely concordant w/ expectations, MJO's distorted response, RNA structure in February, late winter opportunities.

 

 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Updated thoughts on the pattern, posted in my winter outlook thread:

Key points included therein: brief recapitulation of winter to date, largely concordant w/ expectations, MJO's distorted response, RNA structure in February, late winter opportunities.

 

 

Great stuff. Did you read that tweet about the MVP index? From what I understand if it’s + it will prevent from having a typical p8 mjo response. 
 

I agree that we will most likely not see any help from the ao or nao this year. 

[SnoSki14]

Good forecast so far by Iso. Can't argue with majority of snowfall falling in late Feb/March.

[Brian5671]

-PNA and SE ridge sounds like more cutters or at best snow to rain as noted in the outlook. (and any cold to dump out west or best case midwest)

[Isotherm]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great stuff. Did you read that tweet about the MVP index? From what I understand if it’s + it will prevent from having a typical p8 mjo response. 
 

I agree that we will most likely not see any help from the ao or nao this year. 

 

Thanks -- and I did, and when I stumbled upon it, was fascinated that we arrived at similar conclusions via disparate pathways. His index essentially asserts the same: that this MJO response will be distorted/non-classical as far as the NHEM impacts, and that is due mostly to the reduced ACWB via the convection/momentum transports.

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Good forecast so far by Iso. Can't argue with majority of snowfall falling in late Feb/March.

 

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

-PNA and SE ridge sounds like more cutters or at best snow to rain as noted in the outlook. (and any cold to dump out west or best case midwest)

 

Thanks, if I had to alter anything versus my initial February depiction, if anything, February might be slightly less favorable than I thought in November.

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great stuff. Did you read that tweet about the MVP index? From what I understand if it’s + it will prevent from having a typical p8 mjo response. 
 

I agree that we will most likely not see any help from the ao or nao this year. 

Doesn't look like it'll enter 8 though. Seems it goes through 7 and dies off in circle or stay in 6/7 at very low amplitudes. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't look like it'll enter 8 though. Seems it goes through 7 and dies off in circle or stay in 6/7 at very low amplitudes. 

I think it’s picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. This is why the rmm plots are decaying in 7 then heading to 6. Most recently as of today, those plots don’t enter 6 anymore and are staying in cod. I think (this is my opinion) you will make it to p8 to start February then decay in io. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't look like it'll enter 8 though. Seems it goes through 7 and dies off in circle or stay in 6/7 at very low amplitudes. 

Cfs still goes into 8

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't look like it'll enter 8 though. Seems it goes through 7 and dies off in circle or stay in 6/7 at very low amplitudes. 

COD or low amplitude 4/5/6 could be ok-any amplitude in the warm phases and we'll torch like the 1st half of the month

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thanks -- and I did, and when I stumbled upon it, was fascinated that we arrived at similar conclusions via disparate pathways. His index essentially asserts the same: that this MJO response will be distorted/non-classical as far as the NHEM impacts, and that is due mostly to the reduced ACWB via the convection/momentum transports.

 

 

Thanks, if I had to alter anything versus my initial February depiction, if anything, February might be slightly less favorable than I thought in November.

The mjo the last two years has been incredibly  frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol.

 

Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out. 

 

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The mjo the last two years has been incredibly  frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol.

 

Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out. 

 

 

completely agree.   Seems like nothing wants to work out this year....no help anywhere

[Allsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

completely agree.   Seems like nothing wants to work out this year....no help anywhere

And reading the post by @Isotherm any help we get will be pac/strat related come mid February. 
 

 

[PB-99]

The guidance still suggest that we go into p8 and then collapse 

The CFS has been the most consistent while most RIMMS crashed after p6, the CFS never gave up p7

and now continues into p8

 

 

The Vp 200`s match the CFS 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The guidance still suggest that we go into p8 and then collapse 

The CFS has been the most consistent while most RIMMS crashed after p6, the CFS never gave up p7

and now continues into p8

 

 

The Vp 200`s match the CFS 

Great sign

The euro and gfs has been playing catchup all winter with the mjo.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Great sign

The euro and gfs has been playing catchup all winter with the mjo.

Too many other things to fix IMO.   We will certainly see some snow chances but if you read Iso's update,  there's not much to get excited about if you're looking for anything cold/snowy sustained pattern

[PB-99]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Too many other things to fix IMO.   We will certainly see some snow chances but if you read Iso's update,  there's not much to get excited about if you're looking for anything cold/snowy sustained pattern

 

He was only speaking about the MJO going into p8. Most here didn`t think it would go there, but you have the guidance, Timmy and Tom agreeing that we prob go into p8.

 

Can`t just stick that aside.

 

It`s not always about snow. 

[winterwx21]

That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.

[JustinRP37]

Read about what I posted on the MJO. Even phase 8 does not signal cold weather is imminent! It is only significantly correlated with increased storminess. That could still mean rain, or snow to rain. If timed correctly though could provide a storm, but again MJO really does not look like a huge player in the upcoming pattern.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.

Boring run for sure-granted after day 6 it's all fantasy but it has 2 cutters the entire run after this weekend's cutter.  At least give us an exciting Southeaster or something....