January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

2018 2016 2015 2014 2011 - not bad for 1 decade

True =)

[nycwinter]

point to me in the next 100 years any future march that will produce a storm like the 1996 january blizzard?

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Jb thinks snow to the coast this weekend and loves next week

Kiss of death

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

point to me in the next 100 years any future march that will produce a storm like the 1996 january blizzard?

You could find one 131 years 9 months in the past, however considering the present, your point is well taken. As always ....

[forkyfork]

this is as bad a pattern as you can get 

[snowman19]

Just now, forkyfork said:

this is as bad a pattern as you can get 

Yea, how JB actually thinks 1/6-1/12 is a great pattern for east coast snowstorms is beyond mystifying. Twilight Zone right there, I’m expecting Rod Serling to come out any minute smoking his cigarette 

[Dan76]

''Submitted for your pleasure''.....

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, how JB actually thinks 1/6-1/12 is a great pattern for east coast snowstorms is beyond mystifying. Twilight Zone right there, I’m expecting Rod Serling to come out any minute smoking his cigarette 

John Newland, One Step Beyond, might be a better fit. As always.......

[weatherpruf]

31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

True =)

2018 and 2015 were not good Januaries for many of us. 

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, rclab said:

John Newland, One Step Beyond, might be a better fit. As always.......

I used to watch that show as a kid, it was sort of a Twilight Zone ripoff with the events supposedly based on real events.

[rclab]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I used to watch that show as a kid, it was sort of a Twilight Zone ripoff with the events supposedly based on real events.

I found it a bit darker and more frightening than the TwilightZone. The theme music which kicked in for best effect was particularly eerie. I guess there are enough urban and other legends around to build stories for such a show. One Step Beyond I believe premiered January of 1959. Twilight Zone ten months later. One Step Beyond lasted only two years. Twilight Zone, obviously,  appealed to a larger audience. As always .....

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is as bad a pattern as you can get 

That’s the January MJO phase 4-5 composite. Looks like this one has a chance to go above +2 in 4 and 5. Not a surprise given the rapid warming of the WPAC. Phases 5-7 are becoming stronger and more frequent.

 

[Rtd208]

 

[rclab]

24 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

''Submitted for your pleasure''.....

Dan please consider your trade offer in the other forum. I was around 20 years ago and witnessed one of the players. It will be the Ruth deal all over again. As always ..........

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, rclab said:

I found it a bit darker and more frightening than the TwilightZone. The theme music which kicked in for best effect was particularly eerie. I guess there are enough urban and other legends around to build stories for such a show. One Step Beyond I believe premiered January of 1959. Twilight Zone ten months later. One Step Beyond lasted only two years. Twilight Zone, obviously,  appealed to a larger audience. As always .....

Don't forget the Outer Limits, which many people think is on par with Twilight, but I never got into it.

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Sheesh and now to the 15th....losing some of the prime winter days to warmth. And that map looks really warm.

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Look whats coming down the pike right after that

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

this is as bad a pattern as you can get 

Squinting hard through my rose-colored glasses here, but the one thing we have on our side is that we actually have cold air on our side of the globe.  Were we staring at this map with the PV trapped over in Siberia, I might be ready to waive the white flag, esp with the Pacific SSTs favoring the MJO looping in its unfavorable phases.... 

 

But the (relatively) nearby cold at least keeps alive the possibility that some elusive ATL help can rescue us at some point.

[rclab]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Don't forget the Outer Limits, which many people think is on par with Twilight, but I never got into it.

I did watch and enjoy it. Some memorable episodes that tackled difficult issues of that day and indeed ours. Innovative beginning when control of you rat tv was taken over. This was deep in the Cold War era. I remember an episode where scientists bioengineered a man into an alien visage. The alien would land at the UN and threaten the world with destruction. The world would join forces to fight this outer enemy. it did not work out quite that way and the lesson was bittersweet.. the premise could probably be reworked for present situations/conditions. As always.....

[NEG NAO]

23 minutes ago, rclab said:

I did watch and enjoy it. Some memorable episodes that tackled difficult issues of that day and indeed ours. Innovative beginning when control of you rat tv was taken over. This was deep in the Cold War era. I remember an episode where scientists bioengineered a man into an alien visage. The alien would land at the UN and threaten the world with destruction. The world would join forces to fight this outer enemy. it did not work out quite that way and the lesson was bittersweet.. the premise could probably be reworked for present situations/conditions. As always.....

 

5 minutes ago, Torch said:

Most of the episodes had a message. Great show.

banter thread please

[uncle W]

here are the 12 most positive ao January's...they averaged about 4.7" of snow in NYC for January...normal is around 7.5"...

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

here are the 12 most positive ao January's...they averaged about 4.7" of snow in NYC for January...normal is around 7.5"...

There is a chance the AO starts crashing towards neutral around mid month

[uncle W]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

There is a chance the AO starts crashing towards neutral around mid month

if it averages +1.000 or higher it would be number 13 on the list...2015 was number 12...1993 is number one...

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Sheesh and now to the 15th....losing some of the prime winter days to warmth. And that map looks really warm.

We may see the rare 70F+ temp pop up if that map is correct especially if there's a major cutter. 

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We may see the rare 70F+ temp pop up if that map is correct especially if there's a major cutter. 

I hope not.Nothing is more unsettling than 70 temps in Jan, even Feb. In March i can accept it. Would love to see more of it in April and May.....Some are seeing a turnaround after the warmth. We'll see.

[donsutherland1]

December concluded with widespread warm anomalies. Despite having a monthly temperature anomaly of 2.7° below normal on December 21, New York City finished with an anomaly of 0.8° above normal. Snowfall was also generally below normal in much of the coastal plain and larger Middle Atlantic region.

The preliminary December 2019 temperature anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +3.2°, Boston: +2.5°, Islip: +1.2°, New York City: +0.8°, Newark: +1.1°, Philadelphia: +1.2°, and Washington, DC: +2.4°.

Through December 31, total snowfall in New York City was 2.5". In Philadelphia, it was 0.1". In Washington, DC, it was 0.4". Since 1888, there were 29 prior cases when seasonal snowfall through December 31 was less than 1" in Philadelphia and Washington, DC and less than 4" in New York City. Mean seasonal snowfall amounts by the end of the winter were: New York City: 20.6" (median: 15.1"); Philadelphia: 16.1" (median: 13.4"); and, Washington, DC: 12.1" (median: 9.5"). In New York City, 59% of such winters wound up with less than 20" snowfall, but an equal share wound up with less than 10" and more than 40". In Philadelphia, 66% of such winters had less than 20" snowfall. In Washington, DC 79% of such winters recorded less than 20" snowfall.

January will begin on a generally mild not with the first week averaging 5° or more above normal across much of the region. A short-duration cold shot is possible late in the first week of January into part of the second week. Afterward, a tendency for ridging with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing could develop during the latter part of the second week of the month.

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables). Such a scenario does not preclude the possibility of a light snow event across parts of the region during this timeframe, particularly during the January 6-9 period.

2019 was, by far, the warmest year on record in Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) with an annual mean temperature of 20.9°. The previous record was 18.9°, which was set in 2016.

Anchorage also capped off a record warm year with a record high daily temperature of 46°. The previous record was 44°, which was set just last year. The previous warmest year on record was 41.5°, which occurred in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -4.00 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.726. The AO has now risen 5.1 sigma in 4 days and nearly 5.5 sigma in 5 days. The preliminary December average was +0.391 (55% days positive and 45% days negative).

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 9, but warming will very likely develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb toward the end of the first week of January. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted at 30 mb through most of the first week of January, but a moderate Wave 2 hit could occur at or above 10 mb leading to the upper stratospheric warming. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the first week of January on the EPS. However, the upper stratospheric warming will need to be watched for possible downward propagation.

On December 30, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.069 (RMM). The December 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.259.

Since 1974, there were five cases when the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the December 20-31 period, as has been the case this year. The temperature anomalies were closely tied to how much time the MJO spent in Phase 8 during that timeframe. The mean temperature for January 1-15 for cases with more than 5 such days was 29.0° in New York City. The mean temperature for those with 5 or fewer such days was 36.1°. The overall 1981-2019 mean temperature for January 1-15 is 33.8°.

January will likely be warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic region and southern New England. The likely anomalies will range from 1.5° to 2.5° above normal (around 2.4°above normal in New York City).

[Santa Claus]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We may see the rare 70F+ temp pop up if that map is correct especially if there's a major cutter. 

Probably a bit aggressive but dunno if it's a fully-wienerable prediction, given how often we've seen warmth significantly undermodeled.  It's a strong signal to keep an eye on.

[CIK62]

Still looks the same here.   Just one day further on and lost.    Jan. 2002 has a Top Ten analogue during three different weeks.        There was no winter that year as I think the low for the

season was 19*.

[Barman49]

We may see the rare 70F+ temp pop up if that map is correct especially if there's a major cutter. 

70 plus!? You are delusional.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

[Dan76]

10 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

70 plus!? You are delusional.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk
 

Close enough  https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/70-degrees-weather-christmas-eve-rain-showers/1395091/