Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Quick burst of wet snow downtown Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Day 9 / 10 threats come and go but this has been a period that really bares watching. The ridge over H/B argues for anything that tries to cut should die and a secondary should come up off OBX. It is the 1st period inside the pattern change that should be " watched " but do not be surprised if there`s more than one threat rolling out of the S Branch with those high heights over Hudson Bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Windswept rain and snow in lower Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: So 06-07 was warmer. 13 years ago We shall see. Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2019 was 38.8 January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7. I'd call it a draw right now. December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: So 06-07 was warmer. 13 years ago We get crazy anomalies now and then. The Jan monthly record has yet to be topped and I believe it occured in the 1930s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: We shall see. Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April. January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7. I'd call it a draw right now. what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: what's impressive is that Dec '19 had a cold first 3 weeks, so most of the warmth was in 4 weeks.... Good point 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: We shall see. Dec 2006 was 43.6 but December 2019 was 38.8 January 2007 was 37.5, so far this January is 42.7. I'd call it a draw right now. December 2015 was an unprecedented 50.8 which was close to the average temperature for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 p7 and p8 will argue for the trough to be forced into the SE as we roll into Feb. If you can get the ridge to stick around in Canada, you are really going to be in business. The 12z GEFS has roughly 3 to 4 SWs coming under the block over the next 15. Huge oppo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: We're at the halfway mark for January and NYC is currently 10.2° above normal for the month, Poughkeepsie is 11.9° above normal, Trenton is 11.4° above and Albany is a ridiculous 14.6° above normal. Nightmare flashbacks to December 2015, not quite as bad but getting close. Dec 2015 is safely the most absurd month imo. It never went below freezing in the city. Its insane to get though Dec without getting down to 32 for even a few mins. If it was Nov it still would be considered a warm month. Despite lacking the drama or destructiveness of a major storm, taken as a whole, Dec 2015 to me is one the most remarkable weather events in our history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Heavy snow/sleet in Manhattan right now. Looks like it’ll last for ten-fifteen minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Heavy snow/sleet in Manhattan right now. Looks like it’ll last for ten-fifteen minutes I forgot about the risk for squalls today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: ok deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, frankdp23 said: Christ. That won't bring anything wintry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: Christ. That won't bring anything wintry.... the next day looks even...redder, lol. We will see what happens. Seems like a large change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, frankdp23 said: the next day looks even...redder, lol. We will see what happens. Seems like a large change Ouch. If we can't hold onto the cold beyond a few days, we're in trouble (and even the cold next few days into early next week is not anything that's crazy for Jan) Last Jan had some short lived but much more impressive cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 pattern change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 As someone said, if it doesn't change by the end of January it probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, dWave said: Dec 2015 is safely the most absurd month imo. It never went below freezing in the city. Its insane to get though Dec without getting down to 32 for even a few mins. If it was Nov it still would be considered a warm month. Despite lacking the drama or destructiveness of a major storm, taken as a whole, Dec 2015 to me is one the most remarkable weather events in our history. December 2015 would have tied 1999 as the 9th warmest November on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Have had several periods of wind driven wet snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Nice quick squall just passed by here.. huge snow flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 couple snow showers here with temps around 45-47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, forkyfork said: pattern change since 2008-2009 winter.. we have had over 20 inches in central park every year.. and many years more than that by a lot.. except for the 2011-2012 winter season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Isn’t that a pretty good look for a pattern change? That’s the start of a disrupted polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, nycwinter said: since 2008-2009 winter.. we have had over 20 inches in central park except for the 2011-2012 winter season.. what was last year? Had to be very close to 20 then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: what was last year? Had to be very close to 20 then. 20;5 inches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: 2015-2016 december and january were torches worse then this winter then we had the blizzard which saved that winter.. January wasn't that far from normal IIRC. December was a horrendous torch, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, nycwinter said: 20;5 inches.... Yep, figured that. Time to root for a Feb 06 redux-that would take care of the 20 inch problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, frankdp23 said: Too much Niño influence on the pattern since the 2015-16 super Niño. We haven't had a sustained cold winter since 2014-15. Need a Niña with some AO/NAO blocking like 2010-11, 2008-09, 2000-01 or 1995-96 to set the balance right for a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, forkyfork said: pattern change 850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s. We do flip on the 20th. I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch The response to the AAM spike looks real. But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay. When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 In addition to December 2015, I think March 2012 should definitely be a contender for the most absurd blowtorch of a month on a grand scale, even though the most absurd departures were in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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