Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking. COD would be ok-we just can't have it shoot back to 4/5/6 like it did every time last winter or we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: To be fair, everyone busted last winter, @PB-99 included. Hell @earthlightand others called for this December and January to rock this year. In the end of the day it is weather, we cannot control it, we can just try to predict it. Arrogance has no place in it, as everyone on here has busted big time. Go back and read the 1st 20 pages in here in regards to the MJO, the flip , the 20th etc and get back to us. And how is this for seeing the month of Dec ,this was my Dec call made on Nov 11. Right down to the snow in early December , the back end warmth to the month The plus 1 for Dec was my forecast , we finished plus .8 I am not sure dragging my skill into this considering my year is wise. I think I have the period Jan 20 plus spot on so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking. The product is garbage. The CFS has been the most consistent , they have agreed with the vp200`s and Roundy plots this entire time. You don`t need a - AO/ - NAO to get cold. There`s a piece of the TPV sitting in N/A and the tropical forcing is allowing the trough to develop in the SE This is as meaningless as posting 850mb anomalies in late Jan to make a 2m case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: COD would be ok-we just can't have it shoot back to 4/5/6 like it did every time last winter or we're in trouble. We will likely go into the COD after 8 or 1 ish and then you are left with that current state until something else takes over. It`s why the Jan 20 - Feb 20 idea is what I put out. It could end 5 days early or extend , but the 2 weeks from the Jan 20 date are well supported. Including the KU in the pattern I promised you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Go back and read the 1st 20 pages in here in regards to the MJO, the flip , the 20th etc and get back to us. And how is this for seeing the month of Dec ,this was my Dec call made on Nov 11. Right down to the snow in early December , the back end warmth to the month The plus 1 for Dec was my forecast , we finished plus .8 I am not sure dragging my skill into this considering my year is wise. I think I have the period Jan 20 plus spot on so far You have had a good year, agreed. Its only January 16 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, psv88 said: You have had a good year, agreed. Its only January 16 though. So far so good. And yes last Jan was a bust. But I think you will like Jan 20 - Feb 20. If I am wrong, I owe you luger`s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 And FWIW it doesn't really get that cold either after the pattern change. It's about 5 degrees below normal for maybe 4 days before warmer air returns. The GFS has been garbage with it showing nonsense LR snowstorms and frigid temps. Euro much closer to reality. Despite this I do think we'll see something beginning of February. The EPS is not a bad look. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And FWIW it doesn't really get that cold either after the pattern change. It's about 5 degrees below normal for maybe 4 days before warmer air returns. The GFS has been garbage with it showing nonsense LR snowstorms and frigid temps. Euro much closer to reality. Now I do think we'll see something beginning of February. The EPS is not a bad look. OMG dude, If you go from plus 15 to minus 5 in late Jan, do you not realize what a major flip that is ? Your N splits are 38 / 28 , so you go from 53 / 43 to 33 /23 with a trough in the means where the ridge was for 30 days and a great 500 with a " potential " stormy look. That`s a major flip. There`s no warmth coming back at all, you will prob see 3 days of 40 +degree highs due to a ridge extending out of Canada in response to an AAM spike. Do you know what that ridge is ? It`s your Hudson Bay block for what`s coming. It is what you will need to get 1 or 2 snowstorms in the pattern. Because that`s the risk with that 500. HB blocking with the trough cutting underneath. You couldn`t ask for anything more and that look was being set up here while others were certain the ridge would not be kicked out. It is the look you want and that is what I always believed the set up would look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, PB-99 said: OMG dude, If you go from plus 15 to minus 5 in late Jan, do you not realize what a major flip that is ? Your N splits are 38 / 28 , so you go from 52/43 to 33 /23 with a trough in the means where the ridge was for 30 days and a great 500 with a " potential " stormy look. That`s a major flip. There`s no warmth coming back at all, you will prob see 3 days of 40 +degree highs due to a ridge extending out of Canada in response to an AAM spike. Do you know what that ridge is ? It`s your Hudson Bay block for what`s coming. It is what you will need to get 1 or 2 snowstorms in the pattern. Because that`s the risk with that 500. HB blocking with the trough cutting underneath. You couldn`t ask for anything more and that look was being set up here while others were certain the ridge would not be kicked out. It is the look you want and that is what I always believed the set up would look. That's why I believe we'll get something in early Feb particularly once that ridge pulls back from us. It's classic Nino that's very favorable for snows here in February. All I said was the MJO may stay in 7, which by the way is good for us. Today's plots also show more negativity in the AO/NAO domains in response to that spike and subsequent Canadian ridging. Another good sign for an early Feb snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PB-99 said: OMG dude, If you go from plus 15 to minus 5 in late Jan, do you not realize what a major flip that is ? Your N splits are 38 / 28 , so you go from 53 / 43 to 33 /23 with a trough in the means where the ridge was for 30 days and a great 500 with a " potential " stormy look. That`s a major flip. There`s no warmth coming back at all, you will prob see 3 days of 40 +degree highs due to a ridge extending out of Canada in response to an AAM spike. Do you know what that ridge is ? It`s your Hudson Bay block for what`s coming. It is what you will need to get 1 or 2 snowstorms in the pattern. Because that`s the risk with that 500. HB blocking with the trough cutting underneath. You couldn`t ask for anything more and that look was being set up here while others were certain the ridge would not be kicked out. It is the look you want and that is what I always believed the set up would look. To your point the teles now look good. Nao going negative as well as AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking. Those plots are picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. That’s why you’re getting the curl back then back to 8. By the start of February we will be in p8 then the wave looks to die. Will will probably be in cod after the 10th then climo nino takes over for February. You can now see the members curling back. Those maps are so predictable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 47 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and you were saying to ignore the +AO charts for early January - looks like there is a chance of the AO going negative soon - or should we ignore that ? I never said that but keep spewing garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The MJO is now unlikely to enter phase 8-1 like you said. The pattern is still changing but in a different way than forecast. How is it unlikely ? The plots show it going into 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's why I believe we'll get something in early Feb particularly once that ridge pulls back from us. It's classic Nino that's very favorable for snows here in February. All I said was the MJO may stay in 7, which by the way is good for us. Today's plots also show more negativity in the AO/NAO domains in response to that spike and subsequent Canadian ridging. Phase 7 in Jan is good for you. Great for the S/E. I continue to agree with Timmy, we are going into p8 and then the wave could fade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And FWIW it doesn't really get that cold either after the pattern change. It's about 5 degrees below normal for maybe 4 days before warmer air returns. The GFS has been garbage with it showing nonsense LR snowstorms and frigid temps. Euro much closer to reality. Despite this I do think we'll see something beginning of February. The EPS is not a bad look. You keep changing your mind everytime you see a bad and good pattern modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Back to the weather.... this wind sucks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: You keep changing your mind everytime you see a bad and good pattern modeled. I've liked February to produce but wasn't sure if we'd see a classic Nino response. It's nice that the models are showing it now. It doesn't guarantee anything of course but our chances are good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: I feel like it’s always windy around these parts i don’t like it it's winter, it's often windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Back to the weather.... this wind sucks. The sun, when it's out, feels great. The wind, not so much. At least it is drying the car covers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Quit the bickering. Focus on the teleconnections and models not on each other. Right now there is support on both sides of the argument but based on what I am seeing the colder argument is winning at least for a week or two. Anyone claiming victory for most of February at this point is just being ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, PB-99 said: This was just an abysmal post from yesterday. Really? I've never done anything but give you respect. I expect the same in return. Sometimes not responding is the best option. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Quit the bickering. Focus on the teleconnections and models not on each other. Right now there is support on both sides of the argument but based on what I am seeing the colder argument is winning at least for a week or two. Anyone claiming victory for most of February at this point is just being ridiculous. I didn't know it was a contest. Can't people here have a discussion without calling names ? Not referring to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Really? I've never done anything but give you respect. I expect the same in return. Sometimes not responding is the best option. Not being disrespectful , just saying posting the pattern wasn`t changing on the 20th was not supported by the guidance. What a pattern change means are probably different things to different people. If Brian doesn`t get at least 6 inches of snow over the next 2 weeks the pattern will have not changed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: Not being disrespectful , just saying posting the pattern wasn`t changing on the 20th was not supported by the guidance. What a pattern change means, means different things to different people. If Brian doesn`t get at least 6 inches of snow over the next 2 weeks the pattern will have not changed Fair argument 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, weatherpruf said: I didn't know it was a contest. Can't people here have a discussion without calling names ? Not referring to you. The personal attacks are ridiculous. It is OKAY to be critical, but point out where the flaws are. I've been highly critical of JB, yet people still use him. Why do I not use him? Because his skill for forecasting overall temperatures is less than 30% (I ran the numbers about 5 years ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: Fair argument 2 weeks starting the 20th please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: 2 weeks starting the 20th please. ok deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 We're at the halfway mark for January and NYC is currently 10.2° above normal for the month, Poughkeepsie is 11.9° above normal, Trenton is 11.4° above and Albany is a ridiculous 14.6° above normal. Nightmare flashbacks to December 2015, not quite as bad but getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Impressive CONUS warmth for the 1st half of meteorological winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Impressive CONUS warmth for the 1st half of meteorological winter. 2015-2016 december and january were torches worse then this winter then we had the blizzard which saved that winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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