weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses. just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade. Ok, I am older than a lot of you but not THAT old.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950. Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6. This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax" But how much lee way is there? And you have to look at the planet in total. Just saw a headline that 2019 was the 2nd warmest year. Didn't click on it, too much else going on in the news right now, and i"m tired.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 100% agree. Perhaps in 50 years our winters will be more like North Carolina. imo are extremes have gotten more extreme as their seems to me no middle of the road anymore. Good point, others have observed that as well, no in-betweens, at least it seems that way.....I've said 8 inches was considered a big snow storm when I was a kid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Good point, others have observed that as well, no in-betweens, at least it seems that way.....I've said 8 inches was considered a big snow storm when I was a kid. Yep. Historic cold in December 2017 to record snows in March 2018. On the flip side, record warmth in February 2018/2019 and now record warmth in January 2020. I would be fool to not say that the earth has warmed. But imo the extremes are most noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 there are some analogs of hope that did not get started until the second week of February and both ended up with over 40" of snow with major storms in March...both were weak el nino's...1895-96 and 1913-14...1994-95 did not have an inch snowfall until Feb 4th...1877-78 was a one storm winter like 1994-95...two stronger el ninos...as bad as things look today I believe it will snow in February and March...this is analog driven...a major storm would not surprise me in March...to late for some people but it all counts in the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. Historic cold in December 2017 to record snows in March 2018. On the flip side, record warmth in February 2018/2019 and now record warmth in January 2020. I would be fool to not say that the earth has warmed. But imo the extremes are most noticeable. reminds me of the 1930's... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1907 and 2005 were similar with a very warm first half of January and a cold and snowy second half...both had major storms later and both ended up with over 40" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: reminds me of the 1930's... was -15 in 1934 and 106 in 1936 not comparable to those extremes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: was -15 in 1934 and 106 in 1936 not comparable to those extremes.. 101 in June 1934...-3 in Jan 1936... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch Then a 95 blizzard on the 30th...obviously this will change but shows the potential 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Then a 95 blizzard on the 30th...obviously this will change but shows the potential Lovely 18z run I have no clue why people would give you weenies. I mean are people trolling for warmth here or not looking at the pattern ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Lovely 18z run I have no clue why people would give you weenies. I mean are people trolling for warmth here or not looking at the pattern ahead. It’s okay Anthony. I’ll survive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: reminds me of the 1930's... 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: was -15 in 1934 and 106 in 1936 not comparable to those extremes.. the dustbowl really ****ed up the weather for years, the country was so incredibly dry. Dry air is easier to BOTH heat and cool, making extremes more likely. Now, we have higher moisture content and extremes, so in reality, our current extremes in terms of heat content are greater. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Lovely 18z run I have no clue why people would give you weenies. I mean are people trolling for warmth here or not looking at the pattern ahead. Bc you don't understand the weenies can have different contexts. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Lovely 18z run I have no clue why people would give you weenies. I mean are people trolling for warmth here or not looking at the pattern ahead. It’s okay Anthony, some folks project on others what they wish they had. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, psv88 said: the dustbowl really ****ed up the weather for years, the country was so incredibly dry. Dry air is easier to BOTH heat and cool, making extremes more likely. Now, we have higher moisture content and extremes, so in reality, our current extremes in terms of heat content are greater. the drought lingered on and off to the summer of 1966...in 1950 the city hired a rain maker in April and it snowed instead...there has and always be wild swings in the weather...maybe not as cold but wild none the less... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 the difference between a weenie and a pro is a weenie does not need a scientific reasoning but a pro does... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: the drought lingered on and off to the summer of 1966...in 1950 the city hired a rain maker in April and it snowed instead...there has and always be wild swings in the weather...maybe not as cold but wild none the less... Unc if that’s what happened, we could use that rain maker right about now. Providing we get him an order of protection from S19 and Dr. Dews. As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, rclab said: Unc if that’s what happened, we could use that rain maker right about now. Providing we get him an order of protection from S19 and Dr. Dews. As always ... 1950... http://bklyn.newspap...image/52910802/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/52911107 1950...city hires rain maker... http://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/06/nyregion/wallace-e-howell-84-dies-famed-rainmaker-in-drought.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1950... http://bklyn.newspap...image/52910802/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/52911107 1950...city hires rain maker... http://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/06/nyregion/wallace-e-howell-84-dies-famed-rainmaker-in-drought.html Thank you for the articles. Rest In Peace Doctor Howell, a fine and humble man and Accomplished Scientist. As always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 oday again saw temperatures run above normal. In the Southeast, near record and record warmth prevailed. However, the prevalent pattern that saw New York City record a mean temperature of 42.7° during January 1-15 (6th warmest on record going back to 1869) is coming to a close. Winter has not been canceled. During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. In addition, on Friday night and Saturday a system could bring New York City and Newark its first measurable snowfall since January 6. Philadelphia could receive its first measurable snowfall since December 11. Initial snowfall estimates are: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Islip: 2" or less New York City: 1"-3" Newark: 1"-3" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Poughkeepsie: 3"-6" Scranton: 3"-6" The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -11.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.622. The AO had a preliminary average of +3.560 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 23. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 14, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.258 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 3.554. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. The first such event should occur this coming weekend. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 36.0° in New York City. Finally, the latest C3S multi-system forecast suggests that the February-April temperature will likely be somewhat warmer than normal for the region (despite what could be a colder than normal February) and warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal in Europe where winter has been largely absent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 we are in a better place weatherwise than we were in the 1950's...pollution is down...it doesn't get to cold...we have plenty of water to waste...if you live in a flood zone disregard this post... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 48 minutes ago, uncle W said: the difference between a weenie and a pro is a weenie does not need a scientific reasoning but a pro does... Trouble is people prefer to listen to the weenies, in general.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 There’s a chance we get a snow squall tomorrow Afternoon once the low off the coast of Maine starts drifting southeast and out to sea! That’s a strong cold front headed towards us setting up for our first decent snowfall this year! I don’t expect any accumulations just mood graupel-snow shower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 hours ago, uncle W said: the drought lingered on and off to the summer of 1966...in 1950 the city hired a rain maker in April and it snowed instead...there has and always be wild swings in the weather...maybe not as cold but wild none the less... Yup. Drier air leads to more extreme temperatures. The warming oceans have pumped moisture into the atmosphere so our extreme highs are all the more impressive and lows hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Liberty NY 11:40 PM Moderate Snow 31.8 degrees Coating already 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Same here, 33 and moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 15 hours ago, Brian5671 said: NYC was +10 going into today. Yeah, it has not been below freezing here for 6 days even at night-crazy Yeah last below freezing min here was on the 10th...At least the cold Will come back for a few days starting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Grr I have 39 and dense fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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