Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Mersky said: Why does every storm or cold spell have to be memorable?? Thank God most of you were not around in the 70’s or 80’s. You all would be a sorry, miserable bunch if you were I was around for the 80's (and the 90's which were mostly horrid but not as horrid as the 80's) lol. not everything needs to be memorable, but some were tossing around "78 and '15 for analogs... "" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Also, anyone think the southern hemisphere wackiness is causing some things to go awry here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 What are we for January, +15? Incredible warmth continues, low was only 41 last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th. -epo returns on the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: What are we for January, +15? Incredible warmth continues, low was only 41 last night NYC was +10 going into today. Yeah, it has not been below freezing here for 6 days even at night-crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, psv88 said: What are we for January, +15? Incredible warmth continues, low was only 41 last night January 2007 like. Incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NYC was +10 going into today. Yeah, it has not been below freezing here for 6 days even at night-crazy Wow. Has to be one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January. @donsutherland1 any stats on this? This seems historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Though Thursday night and Friday temps aren't anything too cold for January, you'll definitely feel it given how warm its been. Another 50F+ today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Though Thursday night and Friday temps aren't anything too cold for January, you'll definitely feel it given how warm its been. Another 50F+ today. even after this weekend's historic warmth, 45 felt frigid Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: -epo returns on the GEFS Here today, gone tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Here today, gone tomorrow? Haha. Very nino like run. -epo/stj/+pna/Aleutian low/ Pv north of Hudson Bay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. Very nino like run. -epo/stj/+pna/Aleutian low/ Pv north of Hudson Bay. Cfs has the MJO going into 8. I think it does go into 8 and then 1. We should have a favorable period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Cfs has the MJO going into 8. I think it does go into 8 and then 1. We should have a favorable period. Me too Anthony! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I’m going to go on a limb here and say we’re going to start getting a lot of snow soon. Yo me this is the type of pattern that’s just cold enough but not too cold to suppress our storms. That’s just my gut to be honest... but cmc and gfs both have the storm for next week and it’s not cutting or out to sea. It’s kinda shredded but it does eventually redevelop off the coast of Cape Hatteras. Let’s see what the euro says for next weeks storm, Saturday's event looks like a minimal snow event changing to rain on all models now! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Me too Anthony! It's nice to see you posting on here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro also has the day 9/10 system as the GFS and CMC verbatim too warm for the coast but snow not too far to our Northwest still plenty of time to work out the details on this. Definitely looks like a period to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better. Nice post! Yeah, you’re 100% correct about the +AAM. We just need that to relax a bit to pull the ridge back west. Great stuff @bluewave. I don’t have access to the AAM charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Wow. Has to be one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January. @donsutherland1 any stats on this? This seems historic January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park). The five warmer years were: 2007: 46.4° 1932: 44.0° 1950: 43.6° 1907: 43.5° 1998: 43.3° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park). The five warmer years were: 2007: 46.4° 1932: 44.0° 1950: 43.6° 1907: 43.5° 1998: 43.3° I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses. just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park). The five warmer years were: 2007: 46.4° 1932: 44.0° 1950: 43.6° 1907: 43.5° 1998: 43.3° It really puts things into perspective just how spectacularly warm 2007 was. Would be nice to follow that into Feb/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 37 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses. just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of January’s have happen in the last decade. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: What? My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The EPO is so annoying. Must be driving certain energy mets crazy......you know who you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The official 8-14 day outlook is already AN as of today. AN heights invading Canada and 'crushing' the SE Trough. Cafe Wha? LOL. The best analog now is Jan. 1995, which saw no action till Feb. 04. I reached 54* today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This will be interesting to track. Maybe winter 20-21 with a weak Nino , a well established -QBO along with a 12 month solar lag. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950. Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6. This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950. Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6. This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax" 100% agree. Perhaps in 50 years our winters will be more like North Carolina. imo are extremes have gotten more extreme as their seems to me no middle of the road anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now