January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

The preliminary AO value today was +3.622.

The January 1-15, AO average was +3.560. That is the second highest such figure on record since daily AO values were recorded beginning in 1950. It is only the fourth case on record where the AO averaged +3.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. The three prior cases were:

1989 +3.480
1993 +3.886
2007 +3.342

In two of the three prior cases, the AO averaged > 0 during February. In all three cases, the AO averaged > 0 in March.

More importantly, all three prior cases saw a colder than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

For the December 1-January 15 period, the AO has averaged +1.429. The AO has been positive on 70% days and negative on 30% days. It has also been at +3.000 or above on 33% days. Mean seasonal snowfall in New York City for the 11 cases where the December 1-January 15 AO average was +1.000 or above was 18.5". When the 3 cases with an AO average of +2.000 are excluded, the mean seasonal snowfall figure was 18.9".

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

IMO the niño look can get it done this time of year. We don’t need -10 sitting over our heads that leads to cold dry next week.

Agree, also too much cold and high pressure could suppress systems.

[Allsnow]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

The preliminary AO value today was +3.622.

The January 1-15, AO average was +3.560. That is the second highest such figure on record since daily AO values were recorded beginning in 1950. It is only the fourth case on record where the AO averaged +3.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. The three prior cases were:

1989 +3.480
1993 +3.886
2007 +3.342

In two of the three prior cases, the AO averaged > 0 during February. In all three cases, the AO averaged > 0 in March.

More importantly, all three prior cases saw a colder than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

For the December 1-January 15 period, the AO has averaged +1.429. The AO has been positive on 70% days and negative on 30% days. It has also been at +3.000 or above on 33% days. Mean seasonal snowfall in New York City for the 11 cases where the December 1-January 15 AO average was +1.000 or above was 18.5". When the 3 cases with an AO average of +2.000 are excluded, the mean seasonal snowfall figure was 18.9".

 

Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

The most frustrating thing about winters like this is the models always show something just over there towards the end of their run. Then we discuss it for awhile only for that to then appear as snow to rain and then closer to the event mainly white rain and then plain rain. It is frustrating. Hoping to head to Vermont in February to see some ‘winter’. 

It seem, at time like this, the long range models should come embedded with A rendition of Over The Rainbow, sung beautifully by Judy Garland.  “If happy little blue birds fly beyond the rainbow why oh why can’t I?” As always ....

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February 

seeing 93 and 07 in there are interesting.    89 was garbage the rest of the way for the most part.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

seeing 93 and 07 in there are interesting.    89 was garbage the rest of the way for the most part.

Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm??

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm??

it was a weird storm-gave ACY something like 15 inches but 20 miles inland was nothing.    I was living outside of philly at the time and forecasts were 6-12 and we didn't see a flake.   It was around 2/20/89 or something like that.   Not much else other than that-it was colder though once we got to to Feb 89.    Dec 88-Jan 89 were infernos with little to no snow.

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm??

The February 24-25, 1989 event was very localized. Atlantic City picked up 12.3". Islip received only 1.1". New York City had no snow.

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

At this point I would say just bring on spring but I already know it'll be another lousy one. 

I can already see the NAO/AO tanking as we flip to March. 

How about an Easter HECS?   LOL

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point I would say just bring on spring but I already know it'll be another lousy one. 

I can already see the NAO/AO tanking as we flip to March. 

I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February 

Late this month still looks good. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Late this month still looks good. 

for what? 

[Brian5671]

3 of the last 5 Marches have featured above normal snows here.  If you go back to pre-2010, snow was scarce in March but more plentiful in December-interesting how there's certain patterns over a period of time.

[nycwinter]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

3 of the last 5 Marches have featured above normal snows here.  If you go back to pre-2010, snow was scarce in March but more plentiful in December-interesting how there's certain patterns over a period of time.

march snow does not excite me with high sun angle will have hard time sticking in daytime...

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

for what? 

For an asteroid. 

What do you think?

Why are you ignoring the signs of a better pattern and also ignoring Allsnow and PB?

[MJO812]

This is cold for a snowstorm in the east 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Snow88 said:

For an asteroid. 

What do you think?

Why are you ignoring the signs of a better pattern and also ignoring Allsnow and PB?

been hearing about a great pattern for 2 years...not much to show for it.   Like Allsnow said above the chances for an 05 or 15 recovery are slim.     Hopefully we can get a snowstorm or two...I'd be happy with that at this point.  Anything more than that would be a huge win.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

been hearing about a great pattern for 2 years...not much to show for it.   Like Allsnow said above the chances for an 05 or 15 recovery are slim.     Hopefully we can get a snowstorm or two...I'd be happy with that at this point.  Anything more than that would be a huge win.

We will have opportunities  coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. 
 

By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. 
We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. 
 

Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me if it looked like trash I would acknowledge it. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

march snow does not excite me with high sun angle will have hard time sticking in daytime...

Not with a cold enough air mass....

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We will have opportunities  coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. 
 

By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. 
We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. 
 

Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me of it looked like trash I would acknowledge it. 

with no ATL blocking, I would not say cutters are gone-even with cold highs, there's the risk a storm slips b/w highs and goes to the lakes.   Agree it's a better pattern, but can't agree that it's a good or great pattern.

[Allsnow]

A very Miller b esque look on the gfs for the 25th. I hope some can step away from the ledge with that for a few hours. I know I know, it’s not December 2017 type cold 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Not with a cold enough air mass....

Early March is fine-but once you get past 3/10 or so, daytime accums get tough unless it's really heavy or windy/cold.  March 18 was awesome but had that been in Feb, we would have had twice the snow easily

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with no ATL blocking, I would not say cutters are gone-even with cold highs, there's the risk a storm slips b/w the 2 and goes to the lakes.   Agree it's a better pattern, but can't agree that it's a good or great pattern.

But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. 
 

And yes we can get cutters in any winter. January 2014 had them even during our good periods. But with this look I would favor a costal track over a cutter to Detroit. You have been around long enough to know we don’t need a great pattern in January to snow.

[Brian5671]

Just now, Allsnow said:

But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. 

Fair point.    If there's good -EPO as well that'll do it too.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February 

Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now

[Brian5671]

Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track

[Yanksfan]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track

Looks like its got potential for sure. Can't worry about if it's showing snow or rain at this point, but a track like that favors snow.

[TJW014]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nice storm on the GFS next weekend...too far out to get too excited but it does have a nice track

I saw that too... definitely should keep an eye out on the 24th-26th in the long run.

[Snowshack]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now

You may be right but February runs 2-6 weeks from now --- we all know any outcome is still on the table regardless on what is currently depicted.

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, it’s pretty clear at this point that 2/15 or 2/05 isn’t on the way, there isn’t even so much as a hint of that and you would be able to see it by now

Well those years are historic for a reason. We can’t see into February until next week, most likely why we don’t have any hints currently

All I’m saying is the pattern going forward isn’t last weekend. We will have chances with cold air around. The nino esque look has me hopeful for a typical cold snowy February.