SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did JB continues to look more and more foolish each day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Today saw a continuation of warmer than normal weather. The generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through Friday. However, a more winter-like pattern lies ahead in the medium-term. During the coming weekend, colder air will likely return for a period. There is potential for the temperature to fall into the teens even in New York City. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and continue into at least the start of February. On Friday night and Saturday there is potential for a system to bring New York City and Newark its first measurable snowfall since January 6. Philadelphia could receive its first measurable snowfall since December 11. At present, this continues to appear to be the kind of storm that could bring 1"-3"/2"-4" to Philadelphia to New York City, more to the north and west, including New England, and less to the south and east. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -10.64 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.368. The AO will average above +3.000 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 22. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Toward January 20, a short-lived moderate amplitude Wave 2 could impact the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 13, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.555 (RMM). The January 12-adjusted amplitude was 3.530. The January 13 amplitude is the highest January figure on record during Phase 5 of the MJO. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 77% probability of a warmer than normal January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 For a winter month, I don't think that you could have a more boring first two weeks... +9° temp departure... 0.46" of precip and 1" of snow. I'm not an all snow guy, so give me cold Temps and some stormieness and I'm ok...but geez come on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, doncat said: For a winter month, I don't think that you could have a more boring first two weeks... +9° temp departure... 0.46" of precip and 1" of snow. I'm not an all snow guy, so give me cold Temps and some stormieness and I'm ok...but geez come on. Last 10 days of December were bad too-temps in the 40's, no precip, yawn city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Next week looks to have several AN days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 hours ago, rclab said: Didn’t we have a recent memory cold season that had zero accumulation a but into March? As always.... 97-98 had 0.5" until a surprise 5" snowfall in late March, preventing that winter from having the record lowest snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Next week looks to have several AN days Yes in the southwest part of the country. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one? You can get cutters in any winter. 97-98 was a strong El Niño with a very fast pac jet. We literally never had a chance at snow. This winter is nothing like that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 While I do not follow him some of his posts have been popping up in my Twitter feed for some reason. This seems to be along the same line of thinking as Larry Cosgrove. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Cmc and eps has a ridge in the east around 240. We might be taking a step back . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 32degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +10.0[42.5]. Should be +6.4[38.6] by the 23rd. OK, using the next 17 day average temperature (28.6 or -3.5) as predicted by the GFS, January will end near +2.7. 44* here at 6am. 46* by 9am. 49* by Noon. 52* by2pm. 54* at 4pm. Do not expect more than 2" Sat., or even beyond. Models are back to the 50's by the 25th. or so. A great decade---but not now please. Which meteorologist will be the first to pull plug on this winter and admit there is no money for their proposed weather. They should debate on national TV. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Cmc and eps has a ridge in the east around 240. We might be taking a step back . Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now But the gfs shows a snowstorm at the end of the month. Eps has a cluster offshore. That might be the period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 53 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 32degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +10.0[42.5]. Should be +6.4[38.6] by the 23rd. 44* here at 6am. Do not expect more than 2" Sat., or even beyond. Models are back to the 50's by the 25th. or so. A great decade---but not now please. Which meteorologist will be the first to pull plug on this winter and admit there is no money for their proposed weather. They should debate on national TV. What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The most frustrating thing about winters like this is the models always show something just over there towards the end of their run. Then we discuss it for awhile only for that to then appear as snow to rain and then closer to the event mainly white rain and then plain rain. It is frustrating. Hoping to head to Vermont in February to see some ‘winter’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? Not looking great all the sudden. January could have an incredible +++ departure if next weekend ends up warm. NYC is something like +10 right now. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? The flip is still coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The flip is still coming of course it is....wait for it, wait for it, wait.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The flip is still coming we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... Do you have a magic 8th ball to tell you how the rest of the winter will be ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: of course it is....wait for it, wait for it, wait.... In PB we trust Why do you think the rest of the winter will suck ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now Incorrect. Next week will be below normal. What model shows several days next week above normal? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... You will have colder days next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do? The entire h5 set up is changing after the 20th. It’s not going to be consistently cold for weeks on end. We will have times where it will warm up. Today will be the last warm day for a while. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city... Bad definitive posts will usually come back to bite you. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: In PB we trust Why do you think the rest of the winter will suck ? Never said it would suck, but I'm starting to doubt we see anything memorable. There was no ridging 2 days ago on models now that's showing up....(and we know how that works-name a winter warmup that did not over-perform) Some cold mixed in with warmups, hopefully a snowstorm or two to salvage things. Last time NYC saw a storm of more than 4 inches? Nov 2018. Let's hope we can at least get that and hopefully more. Give me a Feb 2006 storm and I'd call it a day for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern. Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 IMO the niño look can get it done this time of year. We don’t need -10 sitting over our heads that leads to cold dry next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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